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What is the proforma plan to divide Iraq into three self governming parts, but still have prorated shared oil and gas revenue? How long might this take to implement? How and where then does Baghdad as a lawless city fall, into which 1/3 area?
Such a plan would have to include letting each 1/3 area self-secure and self-govern in the main.
George Singleton, Colonel, USAF, Ret.
I think it would also entail "ethnic cleansing" as well. IF that's the way things will go, it would be much more "humane" to do it by design, rather than allowing the many other groups to do it on their own through violence and intimidation.
They'd never agree to the oil and gas revenue prorating.Quote:
Originally Posted by George L. Singleton
The Sunnis wouldn't buy it cause they wouldn't get any oil.
The Iranians wouldn't buy it cause the Shia wouldn't get Baghdad.
The Turks wouldn't buy it cause it would give the Kurds about 80% of what they've been looking for all along.
Dividing Baghdad like Berlin wouldn't work as it would become an ethnic cleansing blender until all the smart, non-fanatics became refugees of the area and infiltrated the other 1/3s of the country.
I just don't see it working.
How long would it take? How long did it take in Yugoslavia? If you count Kosovo, then one could argue that it is still happening.Quote:
Originally Posted by George L. Singleton
As for ethnic cleansing; what do you call what the Kurds are doing in Kirkuk right now?
As for the Kurds accepting or wanting an autonomous zone inclusive of Kirkuk and the Kirkuk oilfields: Question - where would they ship the oil that comes out of Kirkuk?
Since in open US Congressional hearings we are told that our military and State do have a back up divide Iraq into three parts plan, I am only asking what is the PhDs advisory groups essential, unclassified game plan to do this, when and if it is the option on the table.
I note and largely agree with many of the above remarks about the side effects of such a future division were it to take place.
It would also be fair to state that the ethnic cleansing began after we overthrew Saddam and has worsened over the last several years. It already exists.
NEW QUESTION: What about airlifting many Turkish divisions, assuming they will still provide them into Baghdad to help get a handle on domestic law and order there?
Other manpower ideas are a critical need now, to me as a retired observer, both in Iraq and in Afghanistan. It appears the entire Pakistani army is tied down trying to hold things together all over Pakistan, with a growing insurgency happening in parts of that allied nation.
Cold rain freezing on the Interstate in spots now here in Greater Birmingham area, in case any of you are headed our way.
Cheers,
George Singleton
George,Quote:
NEW QUESTION: What about airlifting many Turkish divisions, assuming they will still provide them into Baghdad to help get a handle on domestic law and order there?
First of all the Turks are not going to do that; they do not want any part of the Baghdad free for all.
Turkish interests in the north are two fold: disrupt any hardening of a Kurdish state with cross border ambitions. Secondly, if the opportunity were presented, get a piece of the northern oil.
Second: the Iraqis--Arab and Kurd--have longer memories about Ottoman occupation than they do about British occupation. The Sunni Iraqis would be the only Iraqi faction to draw any possible comfort from a Turkish deployment. The Shias would certainly not; Kemalist thought and creed oin Turkey is the foundation of the state, hardly what the Shia are looking for.
Tom
Turkey is not going to want any strong autonomy by the Kurds and any mention of a quasi independent nation of Kurds is going to be met with considerable objection and resistance. Iran certainly wouldn't want to see this either. As a model of geopolitical leverage, it sounds nice but probably not practical.