"Cooking" the Message Yet Again
Quote:
Originally Posted by Foxnews
The United States embassy in Yemen reopened on Tuesday, a day after Yemeni forces reportedly killed two Al Qaeda militants believed to be behind a threat that forced U.S. and European missions to close.
(Emphasis added.)
Amazing what a difference a single word makes. Suppose instead that line from Fox News had read like the following:
"After choosing to close temporarily, the US Embassy in Yemen reopened on Tuesday, a day after Yemeni forces reportedly killed two Al Qaeda militants believed to be behind a threat to U.S. and European diplomatic missions in the country. To lower risks of injury both to Yemeni citizens with business at or around their embassies as well as to embassy employees, the US and British Embassies had ordered temporary closures."
Just a quick response....
Quote:
Originally Posted by
tequila
Really? So have we just scored a crushing victory over AQ by reopening the embassy?
I'm betting the "average" Yemeni does not actually tool around with bin Laden tire covers, nor does he know or care much that the U.S. and U.K. embassies were closed briefly this week.
I achieved this bit of inside knowledge by polling the Yemeni families who own two of the local bodegas around my neighborhood. See, I'm at least as reliable as Tom Friedman now. :D
Just some quick thoughts to clarify what I meant in the previous post...
First of all I have no idea what a Bodega/s is/are. I hope you will enlighten me. :D
Secondly, lets examine things from the PoV of a Yemeni and how he would understand the chain of events (having actually lived there for nine months I think I am, respectfully, best placed to know how they think if only in limited form).
1) Our glorious Son of Islam (the Underwear bomber) outsmarts the US and tries to blow-up a US airliner on Christmas day (or kafir day). He fails. No matter. It is jihad all the same (see Metrics 1, 2, 3, 9 below)
2)US “panics” and closes embassy in Yemen (where a previous attempt by AQ of Arabian Peninsula had failed just short of the main gates). Ha! They run if we sneeze! Not at all like China.
3) Yemeni government- the takfiri collaborationist government of Ali Abdullah Saleh and his gang of GPC cronies who are all on the US payroll -“claim” to have killed an AQ “mujahedeen”. We don’t believe them, of course, because they make claims about everything. Besides, if “they” have killed anyone its probably one of my tribal cousins. That irks me no end.
4) US reopens embassy.
5) Salih is in cahoots with the hated and vile United States of Kafiroona (this merely proves what we suspected all along) therefore I will shift support (if I haven’t already) to Islah, will continue ignoring the various groups operating in my midst, which I support tacitly or overtly and to which my son belongs, pray for the speedy victory of AQ and the destruction of the Takfiri government of Salih.
Yes. We blinked. Yes. We reopened our (UK and US) embassies. No. It did nothing to prove our resolve or courage (thereby undermining what Joseph Nye called Soft Power). In a culture in which honour, prestige and face have been taken to their logical extremes we have handed them a propaganda victory on a plate by “blinking” while simultaneously proving whatever conspiracy theory they may have fastened onto (and there are many). I have every reason to believe Saleh’s government acted in the manner it did, by (allegedly) “killing” an AQ member, to prevent even the talk of US involvement in Yemen (which would destabilise it) by committing an act which, by perceiving to “help” the US, will increase tension in Yemen and thus ultimately ......destabilise it. Saleh gets to wring more money out of the US (having proved that previous aid is being put to “good” use) which he will then use to pay off the major tribal confederacies, and anyone else whose feathers were ruffled, and stay in power a little while longer. Meanwhile his Political Security Organisation will continue to “allow” the escape of AQ members (amongst others) as they did (in)famously in 2006 while clamping down on domestic reformers (after all, he needs the tribes and their AQ/Foreign Fighter friends to eliminate the Houthi rebellion in the north). I do not call that a victory but a net loss. The previous attack on the US embassy was neutralised by Yemeni forces (with the aid of the 4 dshka armed Toyota pickups that dot the entrance). The internal reception of that event in Yemen was disassociated from the US. Causally nothing the US did in Yemen (or the ongoing Iraq/Afghan imbroglios) justified it and thus the Yemeni’s (gov and people) could compartmentalise the episode. The fact that Yemenis died (including newlyweds) actually helped the government gain a degree of legitimacy (a miracle in itself) when its forces killed those concerned. Meanwhile, at the US embassy it was business as usual. “Damn it”, Moe Yemeni thought, “these people are practically immovable. Either I plan something awesome or I give up the idea altogether and go back to my hut and chew Qat”. So, yes, the closure was, in my unlearned eyes at least, a monumental failure in strategic communication/signalling.
Thirdly, we have a problem in defining the meaning of “Victory”/”Success”. We have NO common strategic vocabulary with our opponents (hell, we didn’t even have one with the Soviets during the Cold War, even though, ostensibly, they spoke “our language” culturally speaking...deterrence anyone?). Our metrics are qualitatively dissimilar/diametrically opposed. Our enemy’s metrics have been ably explored and explained by J. B. Cozzens, ‘Victory from the Prism of Jihadi Culture’, Joint Forces Quarterly, No. 59, 2009;
Metric 1 Victory can be understood as the perpetuity of fighting
Metric 2 Victory is found in obeying the obligation to fight Islam’s enemies, not in the outcome of battle.
Metric 3 The Institutionalisation [actually, rather more a case of the maintenance] of a culture of martyrdom is a victory.
Metric 4 Victory comes by pinpointing Islam’s enemies through the refining process of Jihad, and thus maintaining its identity.
Metric 5 Establishing pride, brotherhood and unity in the face of threats to the Ummah is a form of victory.
Metric 6 Creating a parity of suffering with Islam’s enemies- especially the Jews and crusaders-is a victory.
Metric 7 Victory is seen in the maladies afflicting God’s enemies, especially economic recession and natural disasters.
Metric 8 The presence of Miracles in Jihad foretells of Victory for the Mujahedeen
Metric 9 The promotion of the heroic template is itself victory.
The closing of the embassies is equivalent to what the social psychologist Albert Bandura called “vicarious reinforcement” (the actions of others, when seen to result in positive outcomes, Makes those actions appealing or reinforces such CoA). In terms of these metrics and the war of ideas our closing of embassies sends the wrong signals to our foes and means that, IMO, we lost this bout.