The Atlanticcouncil is usually publishing quite useful 'papers' about developments in Syria. Thus it's probably me, then when I read this piece by them - Manbij Saga: An End Game in Syria, it appears to be an 'exercise in alternative history'.
Alternativelly, it's just a joke attempting to entertain...
For example:
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The Manbij Saga: An End-Game in Syria? (title)
From my POV, only idiots can come to the idea to believe the SCW is over because the 'race to al-Bab' is over. And only idiots might come to the idea that the Manbij Saga is over because US, Russian and Hezbollah troops are now there.
In essence, drawing such conclusions is as dumb as when all the possible foreign 'observers' (but especially those in the USA) think that the Syrian War will be over once the Daesh will be defeated...
Clear evidence for this 'saga' being anything but over was already provided - by nobody else but newest US ally: the IRGC.
Namely, two days ago IRGC's thugs in Syria have re-deployed al-Ghalibun's (yes, ladies and gentlemen: that's Hezbollah/Syria's) Liwa Imam al-Bakr from its 'home thurf' (NW Aleppo, Nubol/Zahra enclave) to al-Bab (where there are no Shi'a at all), and ordered it to attack the OES forces there (i.e. the military of the US-NATO-partner and ally Turkey, and the Syrian insurgent forces).
But, what a surprise and disappointment: the OES forces fired back, and Hezbollah had its backsides served on the silver plate.
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US-Turkish relations now hinge along a 50 km (31 mile) front line, snaking east to west along the Sajur river, and down to a smattering of small villages south of the town of Arimah. Various forces are now in control of intersecting front lines, including: Syrian Kurdish, Kurdish allied Arab forces, American Special Forces, Syrian regime elements, Russian Special Forces, Iranian units, Turkish military units, and Turkish allied forces.
Aha... so, the Syrian insurgents - FSyA and AAS - are now either non-existent or 'Turkish allied forces'. Probably because the 'only acceptable' Arab force there is this famed YPG/USA-controlled SCA...
Man, it must be nice to live in this sort of fool's paradise...
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In November 2014, former Vice President Joe Biden reached a tentative agreement with then Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu to cooperate in Syria. For much of that year, the United States and Turkey were locked in negotiations about Incirlik Air Force Base in Adana, Turkey for strike missions and an airbase in Diyarbakir for Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR). The two sides remained at odds over how best to pursue shared goals: using military force to defeat the Islamic State (ISIS, ISIL, or Daesh), while simultaneously providing arms and training to elements of the Arab dominated opposition to force Bashar al-Assad to make political concessions.
Simply wrong. Turkey was always for a comprehensive solution in Syria. A comprehensive solution in Syria is one including removal of Bashar al-Assad. Erdogan & CO might have shelved such plans for the while, but one can bet his/her annual income: that's just shelving the plan, not abandoning it.
Foremost, contrary to short-sighted generals in the Pentagon, Turks knew and still know that destroying Daesh is no final solution to the war in that country: only the removal of Assad is. It's the USA that remain idiotically insistent on 'fighting Daesh only'.
Point is: that was the principal issue during those negotiations (and most of US-Turkish negotiations ever since) - and not Incirlik AB.
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The Pentagon, however, lacked the legal authority to operate in these areas, prompting the passage of H.R. 3979, which included the Title 1209 authorities governing American military support to the Syrian opposition. The authorities bar the United States from directly arming the YPG (without a Presidential waiver), but allow for the provision of weapons to the SAC—which fights with the YPG as part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Ah, now lookie there! So, the USA are actually forbidden from supporting the PKK/PYD/YPG. In order to solve this issue, the Pentagon - in cooperation with the PKK/PYD/YPG - created that SDF comedy as an excuse!
This prompts me me to thank the author for finally explaining this issue that clearly. :rolleyes:
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The Turkish downing of a Russian Su-24, and subsequent Russian bombing in support of the YPG north of Aleppo city in February 2016, nearly wiped out the rebels fighting along the Marea line—upending the T&E program. In response, the program was scaled back.
BS. It was a combined attack of the PKK/PYD/YPG, the IRGC AND the Daesh that - what a surprise considering the odds - pushed insurgents back to border (they were never even near of being 'wiped out'). All of this, though, was NOT related to the downing of the Russian Su-24: for this, Turkey 'paid' by Russians and Assadists ethnically cleansing 70,000 Turkomen from NE Lattakia, and the Russians then supporting the IRGC attack that cut off the land connection between Azaz and Aleppo.
But, ah yes: Russians are now 'allies' in this ridiculous 'war against Daesh' - together with Assadists, the IRGC and Hezbollah...
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However, its successes should not be overlooked: Two T&E groups, Liwa al-Muatism and the Hamza Brigade, are now fighting as part of Euphrates Shield, alongside a smattering of other groups that continue to receive US support. However, the program failed to achieve its objective: to close the Manbij pocket without SDF forces, despite significant US support to the rebel groups, including 50 percent of strikes and ISR sorties from Incirlik. The failing prompted the use of the SDF west of the Euphrates, an operation that had initial Turkish acceptance, despite the YPG presence within the SDF.
This is moronic nonsense. This 'significant US support' was anything else but 'significant'. 'Significant' is what the Pentagon is all the time - and against better advice from nearly everybody in the State Department - doing for the PKK/PYD/YPG: the rest was merely an excuse for the purpose of the Pentagon being able to say, 'but we tried and it didn't work'.
And the YPG has no 'presence' in the SDF: the YPG is 90% of the SDF.
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Twelve days later, on August 24, 2016 Turkish armor and Special Forces, trailed by various rebel groups, moved across the border into Jarablus.
'Trailed'? The FSyA and AAS are leading nearly all of attacks, with TSK providing the fire-power support.
But, let me guess: the Autor would never describe the YPG as 'trailing US forces'...
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It also explains why Ankara, from the outset of Euphrates Shield, telegraphed its intent to consolidate in al-Bab, and then ousted the SDF’s Manbij Military Council, a civilian entity comprised of Arabs, but tied to the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (the PYD, which is the political arm of the YPG).
After applying the US-centric approach to the way he views and describes the situation, the author now shows he's clueless about the situation in Manbij. Namely. there are next to no 'revolutionaries' left in that town: those that were around went fighting Assadists in Aleppo, already years ago, and didn't come back; the few that were left were overrun by the Daesh. But foremost: Manbij was always one of Assadist strongholds in this part of Syria - and indeed: dominated by two families that had their representatives in Assad's 'parliament' in Damascus. No surprise then, these were more than happy to reach all sorts of agreements with the Daesh, once this arrived, and then with the PKK, when this took over. No surprise, they are now more than happy to cooperate with anybody - just not the Turks, FSyA and Ahrar.
Of course, not knowing about such 'minute details', the author needs other sorts of 'explanations' - and is happy to find these in his interpretation of Turkish intentions regarding Manbij...
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Turkey, in this scenario, is still confined in Euphrates Shied territory in north Aleppo, where it must now begin to build up governing institutions to consolidate control over territory it now occupies. This will not be an easy task, with competing groups under de-facto Turkish control espousing vastly different visions for the future construct of civil institutions, like civilian courts, police forces, and basic civic institutions.
Yeah... and since it's 'so far much more turbo-problematic' to run such efforts with multiple parties, the USA are cooperating with a terrorist organization that's imposing itself upon everybody (namely the PKK).
Man, what a recipe for success: I'm now definitely ready to take bets when is this situation going to blow into the face of the USA.