Describing war mathematically is worthy goal, but it is not an easy one...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Larry Dunbar
“exactly what are vertical and horizontal forces?”
War has been defined by many descriptions, but it simply is the displacement of energy, from one orientation into another. This is the main reason the power-law distribution applies to war. There are two forms of energy inside every displacement, kinetic and potential. Kinetic energy has mostly a component of Vertical force, while potential energy has mostly a component of horizontal force.
From an irrigation standpoint it can be beneficial to think of the potential energy of water in terms of hydraulic head or elevation...using this baseline analogy potential energy is seen as due to position in a gravitational field (E=mgh, SI units) while kinetic energy is a form of mechanical energy associated with movement or rotation (E =1/2mv2, E rotational= 1/2Iw2, SI units).
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I am not saying that you can't or shouldn't...
think like so (if it helps you individually, so much to the good):
Quote:
from Larry
I actually look at a military movement as a particle-wave, and use my understanding of a particle-wave or electromagnetic radiation, which could be wrong, as the model. The more I read about war and physics the more it looks like I am correct.
But, I am also aware of the uncertainties and complexities of particle-wave theory (actually theories - and a compromise between the theories to yield a kludge which will work in most cases). So, perhaps your metaphor will work across orientations - if the recipient of your metaphor can understand it; and if your metaphor is indeed correct in its own field (quantum mechanics).
Why not simply say a military movement looks like so (see attached for one of many possible examples); and explain it in terms of what actually happens, why that happens, and what the pluses and minuses of the options are ?
Hugh Everett, who was more than brilliant (but more than a bit eccentric), made the jump from theoretical math and quantum physics to defense modeling, with quite a bit of success.
With ya on three of those
Quote:
Originally Posted by
MikeF
- Bounding onto an objective is much easier than trying to seal the AfPak border.
-I should have paid more attention in my physics class. Actually, I probably should have stayed awake.
-At the end of the debate, COL Gentile may prove to be correct.
Time to watch House and 24.
v/r
Mike
As to COL Gentile from what I remember I'm not sure many here ever said he wasn't right.
What's been cloudy has alway's been that in the end not only does the enemy get a vote but the HN does to and there's limits to what any counter-insurgent can do about that.
All you can do is set condition's the rest is up to them.
Gotta hand it to the man, solid as a rock when it comes to what he feels is right
Then I got to this page...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Presley Cannady
...the fact remains to a degree of accuracy clusters of thinking human beings can be modeled successfully and have been for decades.
Sure have. My issue is with your "degree of accuracy." Adequate for your trade perhaps -- in my former trade that 'degree of accuracy' can easily get you killed.
Quote:
If that's the case, we're wasting a lot of money on pshrinks, term insurance, and advertising with absolutely zero discernible benefit.
I'm unsure who constitutes your "we" but I do know that I'm not wasting any money on pshrinks. Or Term Insurance. As for advertising -- some success stories, some abject failures and even the success stories didn't get nearly everyone... ;)
If one's ad campaign doesn't work out, few to no lives are likely lost -- if one's war campaign doesn't work out, many lives and perhaps more will be lost.
Quote:
"This I find kind of disturbing, considering the key result was discovered almost half a century ago. What the hell have we been doing since? I mean it really feels like Gourley et. al. are shopping for new office space and maybe a graduate degree program, but why isn't there a whole field of Quantitative Conflict Studies out there?"
You are familiar with these guys? LINKThey and their founder have been at it since shortly after WW II.
They and others have tried the numerate approach to war for years. None of those attempts ever really took hold. I think perhaps there's a message in that... :wry: