Al-Qa'ida Chief Urges Iraqis to Export Jihad
27 May The Australian - Al-Qa'ida Chief Urges Iraqis to Export Jihad by Uzi Mahnaimi.
Quote:
The deputy leader of Al-Qa'ida, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has urged supporters in Iraq to extend their "holy war" to other Middle Eastern countries.
In a letter sent to the leader of Al-Qa'ida in Iraq in the past few weeks, Zawahiri claims that it is defeating US forces and urges followers to expand their campaign of terror.
He conjures a vision of an Islamic state comprising Lebanon, Palestine and Syria, where Al-Qa'ida has already gained its first footholds.
The goal of an Islamic “greater Syria”, first outlined by Zawahiri two years ago, is detailed in the letter amid growing concern about the activities of new groups under Al-Qa'ida's influence in the countries concerned...
Militants Widen Reach as Terror Seeps Out of Iraq
28 May NY Times - Militants Widen Reach as Terror Seeps Out of Iraq by Michael Moss.
Quote:
... The Iraq war, which for years has drawn militants from around the world, is beginning to export fighters and the tactics they have honed in the insurgency to neighboring countries and beyond, according to American, European and Middle Eastern government officials and interviews with militant leaders in Lebanon, Jordan and London.
Some of the fighters appear to be leaving as part of the waves of Iraqi refugees crossing borders that government officials acknowledge they struggle to control. But others are dispatched from Iraq for specific missions. In the Jordanian airport plot, the authorities said they believed that the bomb maker flew from Baghdad to prepare the explosives for Mr. Darsi.
Estimating the number of fighters leaving Iraq is at least as difficult as it has been to count foreign militants joining the insurgency. But early signs of an exodus are clear, and officials in the United States and the Middle East say the potential for veterans of the insurgency to spread far beyond Iraq is significant...
Loss of al Qaeda rat lines
We should not overlook the possibility that people are not being sent because al Qaeda has lost its rat lines through Anbar. This has to make it more difficult to get their human bombs into the fight in Baghdad. Recent posts on al Qaeda affiliated sites discussed the shortage of "martyrs" for their operations.
However, assuming the implications of the story are true and that al Qaeda is sending people from Iraq to conduct operations outside the country, If we leave Iraq, will they send more or fewer fighters?
Prepare, wait, and adjust
I agree spreading the conflict beyond the current battlefield is their stated strategy, but it seems counterinutitive to treat Iraq as a holding action, especially with their losses in Al Anbar province. They also tried to get something in the Kurdish area, but that appears to have died down.
If I was an Al Qaeda strategist I might assume that the West is basically defeated in Iraq, not defeated in the sense that they are waving a white flag, but defeated in the sense that they can't win. We created sufficient havoc in Iraq to cause a general loss of confidence in the Iraqi government, and we created a self sustaining ethnic violence system, with no viable political end state in sight. The West has lost their political will to continue to fight (they think), and we have Iran and Saudi (both enemies to AQ) fighting a proxy war in Iraq, so now might be the ideal time to widen our area of operations. North Africa is ready for Jihad, but before I get serious about increasing the operations in N. Africa, they may want to conduct at least one more major attack in Europe to remind them what can happen if they decide to intervene and try to assist the apostate nations. Do we want to attack the U.S. now? Another attack may rewaken the American people, so it might be best to hold off until the election.
While we need to continue executing disruption operations when and where we can, but I think we also need to start investing wisely and aggressively in homeland defense, to include testing, adjusting, re-testing our defense systems. A good defense is key on a number of levels. If the government fails to respond adequately to the next attack, there will be crisis of confidence in our country beyond what we have now over Iraq.
We'll have to wait and see a little bit to see what Al Qaeda's next move will be. Unfortunately they have a lot of options.