Syria: How to Start a Battalion (in Five Easy Lessons)
How to Start a Battalion (in Five Easy Lessons), by Ghaith Abdul-Ahad. London Review of Books, Vol. 35 No. 4 · 21 February 2013.
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So how do you form a battalion in Syria? First, you need men, most likely young men from the countryside, where the surplus of the underemployed over the centuries has provided for any number of different armies and insurgencies. Weapons will come from smugglers, preferably via Iraq or Turkey. You will also need someone who knows how to operate a laptop and/or a camcorder and can post videos on the internet – essential in applying for funds from the diaspora or Gulf financiers. A little bit of ideology won’t hurt, probably with a hint of Islamism of some variety. You’ll also need money, but three or four thousand dollars should be enough to start you off.
Very interesting article. Key take away:
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For decades, the dictatorship in Syria worked to stamp the people into submission.... So when these systems of control collapsed, something exploded inside people, a sense of individualism long suppressed. Why would I succumb to your authority as a commander when I can be my own commander and fight my own insurgency? Many of the battalions dotted across the Syrian countryside consist only of a man with a connection to a financier, along with a few of his cousins and clansmen. They become itinerant fighting groups, moving from one battle to another, desperate for more funds and a fight and all the spoils that follow.
Syria: a land of opportunity and pessimism
From Jihadica:
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Read in full, Shumukh’s “comprehensive strategy” for Syria presents an unmistakably grim prognostication for jihadism’s future in Syria—indeed a grim prognostication for Syria’s future in general. It is an attempt to think realistically about the challenges to true jihadi success in Syria in the coming months and years.
Link to a summary and a translation:http://www.jihadica.com/al-qaeda-adv...%9D-for-syria/
Interesting contrast with the AQIM document found in Timbucktu; see SWC thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...038#post145038
Also taking a pessimistic view on events in Syria is Professor Bruce Hoffman, in a short interview, which covers more than Syria:
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Al Qaeda sees Syria generally and its unconventional weapons stockpiles in particular as offering the best chance for it to revive its waning fortunes and once again become as threatening and consequential as it appeared in the aftermath of the September 11th 2001 attacks. Indeed, I would argue that al Qaeda has pinned its faith and hopes to the demise of the Assad regime and, in turn, its acquisition of deadly weapons from that country’s vast unconventional weapons arsenal.
Link:http://www.middleeast-armscontrol.co...rorism-threat/
A Divided Society: The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on Lebanon
A Divided Society: The Impact of the Syrian Crisis on Lebanon
Entry Excerpt:
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Syria: strange combinations at work
Hat tip to Enduring America, about Turkish working with an AQ affiliate and then using SOF detaining suspects in Syria (not yet noted by the BBC). Last week I noted Croatian weapons being flown to Jordan and onto the Syrian opposition; yes, "money talks" and Croatia today is different from during the Bosnian War.
This morning (0745hrs GMT):
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Detentions in Border Bomb Attack. Turkish officials say they have detained five suspects --- four Syrians and one Turkish --- over last month's bomb at a border crossing that killed 14 people. Two of the detainees allegedly staged the attack, at the crossing to Turkey's Hatay Province, while the other three are accusing of aiding and abetting. Officials claims the suspects have revealed that they got paid $35,000 by people connected to Syria’s intelligence agency.
At 1600hrs GMT:
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Turkish Special Forces Worked with Al Nusra. Hurriyet...to track down the perpetrators of a January car bombing at a border crossing. The second shocker is that the Turkish Special Forces actually entered Syria, using information acquired by the Free Syrian Army and Jabhat al Nusra, in order to capture the suspects
Link:http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/...tyrs.html#1600
What next?
Another interested party interceding?
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Three Russian warships anchored in Beirut en route to the port of Tartus in Syria, Sky News reported Friday.
According to the report, the ships carry hundreds of Russian soldiers as well as advanced missile systems.The reports have given no information so far regarding the ships’ intent.
Moscow has operated the naval facility at Tartus since signing an agreement with Damascus in 1971. Although it is merely a ship repair and refueling station with a limited military presence, it is the sole remaining Russian military base outside of the former Soviet Union.
In January, a flotilla of five Russian warships laden with hundreds of troops, headed toward Syria, as a show of force meant to deter Western armies from intervening in the war-torn nation, the London-based Sunday Times reported.
Previous reports cited Russian diplomats to the effect that the vessels were being put in place in order to evacuate thousands of Russians who still remained in Syria, if the situation in the country called for it.
However, a Russian intelligence source was quoted in the London Times as saying that the presence of over 300 marines on the ships was meant as a deterrent to keep countries hostile to the Bashar Assad regime — a key ally of the Kremlin — from landing special forces in the country.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/three-r...ed-for-syrian-