Mullah Omar Captured? A discussion

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05-11-2010
Schmedlap

Mullah Omar Captured? A discussion

Just saw this a minute ago...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brad Thor via Big Government

At the end of March, US Military Intelligence was informed by US operatives working in the Af/Pak theater on behalf of the D.O.D. that Omar had been detained by Pakistani authorities. One would assume that this would be passed up the chain and that the Secretary of Defense would have been alerted immediately. From what I am hearing, that may not have been the case.
- Link to story

See more at the link.

If true, what does this mean? Especially in light of recent arrests of members of the Quetta Shura? Has there been any noticeable impact in Afghanistan since his alleged capture in March?

Moderator's Note: this appears to be a circulating rumour based on one news exclusive and gaining momentum by appearing on a variety of blogsites. Appearing on SWC may give the story more credibility. No news sites of note have the story.
05-11-2010
SteveMetz

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schmedlap

If true, what does this mean?

It would mean that the Taliban has one less eye on events! ;)
05-11-2010
bourbon

This story hasn't gained any traction yet. I'm not familiar with the author; how credible is he?

Quote:

It would mean that the Taliban has one less eye on events!

Wasn't the Taliban's national motto “It's all fun and games until someone loses an eye”?
05-11-2010
omarali50

Does anyone seriously believe that the Pakistani army cannot deliver Omar if it wanted to? And knowing this, can one seriously believe that the American side was not aware of this till March or April or whatever and has suddenly realized that this may be the case? I am confused....
05-11-2010
SteveMetz

As I've been saying for years, America's "partners" in counterinsurgency have no vested interest in decisively defeating the insurgents. They know that we will then lose interest. Their interest is in sustaining a nice, controllable insurgency. E.g., the Philippines and Colombia, both of which have done this for fifty years. Imagine how little we would care about Afghanistan or Pakistan if the Taliban and AQ were decisively defeated.
05-11-2010
BamaCoast

Quote:

Originally Posted by bourbon

This story hasn't gained any traction yet. I'm not familiar with the author; how credible is he?

Brad Thor is a best selling author. I have read all of his books. He is very good.

Quote:

Thor is a graduate of the Sacred Heart Schools, the Francis W. Parker School (Chicago), and the University of Southern California (cum laude), where he studied creative writing under author T.C. Boyle.[3]

Prior to becoming a novelist, he was the award-winning creator, producer, writer, and host of the national public television series Traveling Lite.[4]

Thor is a member of The Heritage Foundation and has spoken at their national headquarters on the need for robust missile defense.[5] Thor has served as a member of the United States Department of Homeland Security's Analytic Red Cell Unit,[6] is a Fellow of the Alexandrian Defense Group,[7] and is a frequent television and cable news commentator.

In 2008, Thor shadowed a Black Ops team in Afghanistan to conduct research for his thriller, The Apostle.[8][9]

Moderator's Note: if citing a reference make it clear what the origin is. The quote is all from:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brad_Thor
05-11-2010
slapout9

Quote:

Originally Posted by SteveMetz

As I've been saying for years, America's "partners" in counterinsurgency have no vested interest in decisively defeating the insurgents. They know that we will then lose interest. Their interest is in sustaining a nice, controllable insurgency. E.g., the Philippines and Colombia, both of which have done this for fifty years. Imagine how little we would care about Afghanistan or Pakistan if the Taliban and AQ were decisively defeated.

Steve, thats an interesting theory.....care to expand on it some?
05-11-2010
davidbfpo

Unconvinced

If this was true it does not reflect well on the relationship between the Pakistani state arm responsible, on the assumption it would have been ISI and their relations with external partners ie. the USA.

Why would the story be suppressed for so long and released just as President Karzai visits the USA?

I am unconvinced the story is true, more likely IMHO it is a "tester" - how would the world react to such an arrest?

Moderator's Note: this appears to be a circulating rumour based on one news exclusive and gaining momentum by appearing on a variety of blogsites. Appearing on SWC may give the story more credibility. No news sites of note have the story.
05-11-2010
Schmedlap

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moderator

Moderator's Note: this appears to be a circulating rumour based on one news exclusive and gaining momentum by appearing on a variety of blogsites. Appearing on SWC may give the story more credibility. No news sites of note have the story.

Just to be clear, I framed the title as a question, then preceded another question with "If true..." and referred to the "alleged capture" and merely asked what this would mean. High profile captures/kills get hyped up (Saddam, Uday, Qusay) while others don't need the hype (Zarqawi). I'm curious where on the spectrum Mullah Omar would lie. I think your last comment about it being a "tester" may have some merit, which is one reason why I used the article as a prompt for the question. Sorry if I created the appearance that I was buying the story or using SWC as a conduit to lend it credibility.
05-11-2010
davidbfpo

No issues with starting the thread

Schmedlap,

No problem with starting this thread as a question; I am wary it is a hyped balloon.

As for the position of Mullah Omar, a UK radical who "sat at his feet" was very impressed with his oratory and ability to persuade. He appears to be the key figure, although other analysts suggest he is just a coalition spokesman.
05-11-2010
Danny

Appearing on the SWC ...

Has nothing whatsoever to do with the legitimacy or credibility of the report. SWC didn't report it, Brad Thor at Big Government reported it. This report has been adequately questioned in this thread, and will be proven to be right or wrong. The thread is merely discussing it.

What am I missing?

As for the report itself, I am leary of it. It sounds too bizarre to be true. Furthermore, I don't typically get too hyped up over HVT killings. Generally speaking, I think the whole SOF-driven campaign against HVT is highly ineffective anyway, and a waste of their efforts. They should be matrixed to infantry units and part of the COIN operations. Get the SOF off of FOBs where they helo in to do direct action raids, and get them all to the Kunar and Nuristan provinces where the Army is taking heat, and the campaign will be much better for it. It's all much ado about very little, whether SOF, CIA, Pakistani SOF, or whomever. Wasteful cloak and dagger stuff, in my opinion. It's a good thing if true, and I would rather it be true than not. But the insurgency won't end with this news, right or wrong.
05-12-2010
Dayuhan

The author of the report made his mark writing fiction, and I wouldn't get too excited about it without supporting evidence. I also suspect that even if true the impact would probably not be that great. Old leaders die, new ones step up.