Yawn. WaPo must have a short memory. Now that the Neo-Conservatives endorsed Hillary Clinton, Iraq is forgotten...
Africa continues to suffer and is practically begging for regime-change and nation building, but *crickets*
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Here we go.....
1. I am deeply concerned with the new Russian first strike doctrine changed in late 2013 and announced again in 2014 using tactical nukes as that actually defeats the purpose of MAD...which was based largely and initially on ICBMs.....
2. I do think that Putin truly believes that he could in fact tactical first strike before the West could react and thus force the West into a military decision to go full retaliatory with all the destruction which he feels then would force the West to not retaliate and settle the issue with Putin BECAUSE the West cannot match the tactical nuke abilities of the current Russian military....yes they can deliver via aircraft...but nuclear tipped cruise missiles and or SS21 style delivery vehicles NATO does not have...most of these were removed from the inventories years ago when everyone thought peace for good had broken out...
3. check the Russian frozen conflicts on the map and you will se Russia has built a "wall" on their western border that allows them to use these enclaves as "excuses" ie protecting Russian speakers and or defending Russian stationed troops called "peacekeepers" which they are not as they have been tied into the overall new Russian military districts....physically located back in Russia...this allows Putin to challenge the West any time he wants by simply "heating up" a frozen conflict at will...
4. Reference BDM....all sites foresee the use of Patriot Block 3 missiles....do some research on Patriots a lot on open source on the subject and you will notice that the reload of the batteries is always dictated by field demands/uses via missile Blocks 1, 2 or 3...depends on the types of targets they anticipate seeing and that they cannot simply on the fly suddenly use a missile from one Block designed for another target set if a different target set is inbound....sure they can fire at inbound missiles with the wrong Block but percentage of hits drops...
Patriot batteries can fire at literally anything if detected/acquired by radar....THAT is exactly why I think the Russians are vehemently against them... it does in fact negate the new Russian banned weapons such as the GLCM....that alone would then negate the new Russian doctrine of tactical first strike taking them back to the drawing board of MAD.....
There is always upgrades ongoing with the Patriots but in the realm of software which allows for a better target identification and in the removal of "possible false positive detections" of inbound targets.....
A lot of the Patriot locations are determined by fields of fire meaning where to best fire in order to get the best missile launch to ensure accurate hits....and how the sites can be tied into radar detection centers....most of the time the launched missile has to reach a certain height and angle for a better kill...
BUT again as long as no THADD is forward deployed into Europe then the BMD is not a threat to the Russian strategic ICBM threat and MAD is safe and sound.....THADD can in theory be based n the US but detection rates then fall due to the sheer distances of detection that ensue...BUT one could in theory tie it to targeting satellites but that is a waste of satellite time and space...and that is usually limited time wise and orbit wise...
The Russians BTW know all of these as they monitor intensely all US Patriot unit movements like a hawk does it's prey.......
Iran: Our relationship with #Russia is now strategic
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20...ow-strategic/#
Syria's youngest poster has made it out of Aleppo with her mother and sister...father was killed in an air strike....
So happy to see that @AlabedBana was safely evacuated from besieged #Aleppo, but sad she had to leave her home.
Breaking. #ISIS claims shot down a #Russia|n attack helicopter over #Tiyas Airbase in E. #Homs.
BREAKING — UN Security Council unanimously adopts the resolution to send observers to Aleppo
http://sabahdai.ly/buX0eR
What a joke. The evac is nearly done. They're going to monitor ruins + good words for Assad rebuilding/"reconciliation"
Assad airstrikes targeted Shifouniya & Misraba in rural #Damascus this morning as well
Russian state media reports the country's ambassador to Turkey Andrey Karlov has died after being shot at an art exhibition in Ankara
BREAKING Russian state-run agency RIA cites source saying Russian ambassador to #Ankara, Andrey Karlov is dead. #Russia
BREAKING The video shows the attack scene moments after Russian Ambassador shot to death. He shouts "don't forget Aleppo, Syria"
Turkey PM issues temporary gag order on "All news, images and comment" regr the armed assault to Russian Amb. Karlov
https://www.rtuk.gov.tr/alt-siteler/...i-karari.html#
Russian ambassador to Turkey, Andrey Karlov, was shot multiple times while giving a speech, state media says
http://cnn.it/2h463Fe
NOW Russian info warfare is kicking into high gear over this killing.....
Belligerent Russian expert, operating in default mode, says America is responsible for the shooting of Moscow's ambassador to Turkey
WHO is the individual...social media now in the process of searching to see if anything exists on the individual on the entire net....
Spreading that video of Russian ambassador's assassination is essentially amplifying the assassin's message. Consider before retweeting.
Putin being briefed on killing of Russian ambassador in #Ankara. Big Q how he responds—relations have been up & down
http://www.interfax.ru/russia/542104
The CL2 Before the Storm — Alleged Chemical Attacks in Aleppo in the Last Months of 2016 via @bellingcat
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena...re-the-storm/#
How Putin’s Fake News Machine Spread From Ukraine Across the#Globe
Outrageous media hoaxes, Internet trolls and repression at home are all key instruments in the Kremlin’s political tool#box
https://warisboring.com/how-putins-f...919#.fqiavxv3i
Russia gags local media from reporting on the shooting in Ankara. Unconfirmed reports Russian Ambassador has now died
Ambassador has now died. This is now a full-on regional crisis. Killing of diplomats breaks every international norm. #Russia will react.
Ankara was always a dangerous place for ambassadors: in 1942 Soviet NKVD was trying to kill von Papen to drag neutral Turkey into the war
Russian info warfare deep at work......
One talking head after another goes on Kremlin TV to insinuate Ankara assassination planned by powers opposed to Russia as Mideast player.
Quick identification by social media of the shooter......
The attacker is 22 years-old Turkish police M.M.A from Ankara police special force department..
How did he hide his being a jihadi as they are claims he shouts jihadi slogans at the scene of the shooting...
Is this a possible false flag....this does not make sense..how did he hide it from others in his department especially after the coup....
Very imp: pro-AKP journo A.Selvi: attacker's Arabic reciting is also al Nusra's anthem or slogan's beginning: "we obey the jihad order"
Graphic picture of the gunman's body shows multiple gunshots on the wall #Turkey
Translation of the Turkish parts in the video of the gunman's words after shooting the Russian ambassador. Video:
http://m.t24.com.tr/haber/rus-buyuke...-yapti,377926#
Where are the political condemnations of Russia murdering, in a most horrendous fashion, 5 Ukrainian soldiers defending UA yesterday??
SIX wounded yesterday and another 4 today in a series of massive Russian ground attacks in two locations confirmed by OSCE...
World's eyes are on Ankara, but in past 48 hrs Russia/proxies stepped up the war on #Ukraine. 5 UA soldiers dead. Now attacks in #Toretsk
Murdered at the request of a @NATO government.
Yet another inverted Russian CGI / VFX claim.
Palmyra: The downed helicopter was probably a #Syria|n Gazelle. #Tiyas
Palmyra: #ISIS has killed the #Assad Brigadier General Ali Mahmoud, commander of the #Tiyas Airbase, today.
Appears to have been a truck attack into a Xmas market here in Berlin this evening....am lucky.... we were there this afternoon to avoid the large evening crowds....no barriers as the market is bordered by two major roads..
Terror attack not being ruled out....several dead and a high number of injured being first reported......by the Berlin Fire Department
BREAKING: Driver of the truck is on the run according to German media sources
Lorry crash at Christmas market at Breitscheidplatz in Berlin is deliberate attack, German police say
I think that you are conflating Russia’s official declared nuclear doctrine with controversial statements made by Russian officials, politicians and analysts in recent years.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Russia’s 2010 doctrine was the first to declare that Russia could respond to conventional aggression with nuclear weapons, although the idea had been gaining ground since 2003 or earlier. Putin is keenly aware of Russia’s conventional weakness and so I do not believe that he ever believed that a NATO-Russia conflict would not escalate to the nuclear level. Russia has used nuclear weapons in its exercises since 2000 and it has increasingly relied upon nuclear deterrence. Tactical nuclear weapons do not negate MAD (initially based upon strategic bombers rather than ballistic missiles); rather, they provide more options, or what McNamara referred to as a “flexible response”.
Note that during the period of American conventional weakness, the US Army deployed nuclear-armed recoilless rifles and US nuclear doctrine post-New Look/Massive Retaliation provided for degrees of nuclear escalation e.g. tactical first, counterforce first, etc. I feel like a broken record here, but the similarities between how US and Russian/Soviet nuclear doctrine is predicated upon conventional capability should be very apparent.
According to Mark Galeotti, the concept of “nuclear de-escalation” is not taken seriously by the General Staff or Ministry of Defense.
Putin does not believe in “nuclear de-escalation”.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Firstly, there is the issue of the target of the tactical warhead strike. Would Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in the Baltic, Black or North Seas as a demonstration that inflicts no casualties? Would Russia strike at a civilian target such as Warsaw or Bucharest? Would Russia strike at a military target? Putin may be a gambler but he would be insane to think that NATO would tolerate nuclear mass murder in East-Central Europe. As for military targets, how can Putin know how the French, British or American people will respond if their soldiers are among the victims? Each has separate nuclear C2, and each could decide to respond with nuclear weapons. If the victims are all Polish soldiers and the attack is unanswered, the US-led alliance will not survive accusations of “Western betrayal” (for the third time in the Poles’ view).
Secondly, NATO can hammer Russia with conventional stand-off weapons and destroy the Russian state without resorting to nuclear weapons, and this would first involve attacking Russia’s tactical nuclear assets. Nor is NATO reliant upon stand-off weapons given the stealth and capacity of the B-2s. This would allow NATO to secure the moral high ground and escalation dominance, as Putin will be forced to respond while knowing that NATO is still retaining its tactical and strategic nuclear capabilities and is now on full alert.
Thirdly, the enormous risks of “nuclear de-escalation”, given that neither the Americans nor Russians ever believed that a limited nuclear war was possible or a conventional-only war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact or Russia, what objective would be worth it?
I also believe that you are confusing the SS-21 for the SS-26 Iskander…
Russia has only turned up the heat when it felt that it was pushing back against NATO or the EU, first in Georgia and then in Ukraine. It is not as though Russia has been creating a second Kaliningrad in Transnistria, which would allow Putin to menace Russia’s southeastern flank.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
For someone well-versed in BMD, it surprises me that you mistook the Tochkha for the Iskander, and that you are conflating the GMD and the Patriot.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
The US-Polish agreement under Bush was to install a number of GBIs in Poland of the same variant deployed in Alaska and California. In addition, Poland would receive PAC-3 batteries for air defense, which it considered of far more importance. Basically, the US wanted to create a branch of GMD in Poland to counter ballistic missiles, while Poland wanted an advanced SAM to mainly counter Russian aircraft. The GBI uses ERIS technology from the SDI, whereas PAC-3 uses ERINT. Given the US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty, how could Russia not see the expansion of GMD to Central Europe as an attempt to target Russian ICBMs?
THAAD also uses ERIS technology but is more intended for SRBMs and IRBMs rather than ICBMs. Obviously, there are developments to fuse GMD, THAAD, Aegis BMD and Patriot into one layered system that can protect against all types of ballistic missiles and even cruise missiles in the future, with the missiles complemented by railguns and lasers. This ties in with your point above about the importance of the various programs' radars (e.g. PAC-3) to other systems.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Multiple reports are saying multiple figures..right now trending is 9 killed and 50 plus injured....
A mob of #Americans now tries to tell me, that because Germans aren't reacting like a hysteric mob, #Germany is in trouble... ... ...
Those speculating should note that Germany already experienced three attacks this year. They only had a marginal impact on political polls