Venezuela, Iran & others: a coalition? (New title)

Mod's Note:This thread was called: The "Newest" New World Order - a Coalition of Antagonistic Lilliputians ™ ? until 30/12/2010 and re-named for clarity as Venezuela, Iran & others: a coalition?

Maybe a call to that new kid with the funny haircut in Pyongyang.
A little innocent help from Russia, a little under-the-table help from China.
Good way to take out the Evil Empire of the Northern Hemisphere.

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TEHRAN, Iran – The leaders of Iran and Venezuela hailed what they called their strong strategic relationship on Wednesday, saying they are united in efforts to establish a "new world order" that will eliminate Western dominance over global affairs.

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101021/...JhbnZlbmV6dWVs

nb : yes, it's spells out C.O.A.L. (every group of bad guys needs a single-syllable abbreviated name)

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CARACAS (Reuters) – Cuban intelligence services directly advise Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in what a U.S. diplomat called the "Axis of Mischief," according to a State Department cable released by the WikiLeaks website.

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20101202/...eaks_venezuela

Found this while looking for something else -

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The Chinese mafia has reportedly collaborated with "Islamic terrorist groups" in the region (United States April 2003; Combined Arms Center Military Review July-August 2002). Information about their relationship with the local Paraguayan population was scarce among the sources consulted by the Research Directorate. Country Reports 2003 stated that Chinese groups had "reportedly threatened the life of Ultima Hora journalist Gustavo Garcia for investigating them" (Sec. 2).

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http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/countr...f61642c,0.html

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Among the two most alarming revelations is the already completed sale and delivery, to Venezuela by Russia, of nearly 2,000 advanced, shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles capable of hitting aircraft as high as 19,000 feet. Equally and perhaps more alarming is an October agreement between Iran and Venezuela. The agreement establishes a joint ground-to-ground missile base on Venezuelan soil and calls for the sharing of missile technology and the training of technicians and officers. In addition, Venezuela may use the missiles as it chooses for “national needs” and in case of “emergency.” Several types of missiles will be deployed, giving Venezuela the ability to strike targets throughout South and Central America and throughout the U.S.

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http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/iran-sh...-to-venezuela/

Note scale of Venezuelan oil imports to US here
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/p...nt/import.html

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Iran is planning to place medium-range missiles on Venezuelan soil, based on western information sources[1], according to an article in the German daily, Die Welt, of November 25, 2010. According to the article, an agreement between the two countries was signed during the last visit o Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to Tehran on October19, 2010. The previously undisclosed contract provides for the establishment of a jointly operated military base in Venezuela, and the joint development of ground-to-ground missiles.

At a moment when NATO members found an agreement, in the recent Lisbon summit (19-20 November 2010), to develop a Missile Defence capability to protect NATO's populations and territories in Europe against ballistic missile attacks from the East (namely, Iran), Iran's counter-move consists in establishing a strategic base in the South American continent - in the United States's soft underbelly.

According to Die Welt, Venezuela has agreed to allow Iran to establish a military base manned by Iranian missile officers, soldiers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Venezuelan missile officers. In addition, Iran has given permission for the missiles to be used in case of an "emergency". In return, the agreement states that Venezuela can use these facilities for "national needs" – radically increasing the threat to neighbors like Colombia. The German daily claims that according to the agreement, Iranian Shahab 3 (range 1300-1500 km), Scud-B (285-330 km) and Scud-C (300, 500 and 700 km) will be deployed in the proposed base. It says that Iran also pledged to help Venezuela in rocket technology expertise, including intensive training of officers

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http://www.hudson-ny.org/1714/iran-m...s-in-venezuela

AdamG,

Let us for a moment assume the news report is true.

Given the capacity of US intelligence, why has this not been noted before and placed in the public domain? If it has been noted, but not placed in the public domain - ponder that.

Now back to the Cuban missile crisis. There are some remarkable similarities. Now will we see a re-run in 2011?

A quick reaction.

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Originally Posted by davidbfpo

AdamG,

Let us for a moment assume the news report is true.

Given the capacity of US intelligence, why has this not been noted before and placed in the public domain? If it has been noted, but not placed in the public domain - ponder that.

Now back to the Cuban missile crisis. There are some remarkable similarities. Now will we see a re-run in 2011?

A quick reaction.

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In the month since this article appeared, I've seen the peanut gallery assertions that it's mere Cold War style propaganda. So yes, let's look back to 1962...
https://www.cia.gov/library/center-f...article06.html

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Originally Posted by davidbfpo

AdamG,

Let us for a moment assume the news report is true.

Given the capacity of US intelligence, why has this not been noted before and placed in the public domain? If it has been noted, but not placed in the public domain - ponder that.

Now back to the Cuban missile crisis. There are some remarkable similarities. Now will we see a re-run in 2011?

A quick reaction.

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I hope not, we are nowhere near as prepared to survive as we were back then.

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Originally Posted by davidbfpo

AdamG,Given the capacity of US intelligence, why has this not been noted before and placed in the public domain? If it has been noted, but not placed in the public domain - ponder that.
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Assuming the source was US intelligence.

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Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon warned Monday that Iran's ties with Venezuela posed a threat to the entire world, and in particular the United States.

"Venezuela is Iran’s advance outpost on the Latin American continent. The two countries have joined together to create an axis of conventional and nuclear terror [that threatens] not only the Middle East, but also the continent of America, and the United States in particular," Ayalon told a group of some two dozen journalists from Latin American countries.

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http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomac...world-1.330419

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DFM Ayalon: A nuclear Iran will lead to a nuclear Venezuela right in the United States’ backyard

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http://www.mfa.gov.il/MFA/About+the+...3_Dec_2010.htm

Ok, some points to consider:

1. LOS distance from the northernmost point of Venezuela to the closest major American city (Miami) is about 1800km.
   
2. Currently, there is no operational Iranian missile with the reach to hit Miami from Venezuela. The Sajjil-2, which a range of 2200km, may be operational in a couple of years.
   
3. It's possible Iran may develop a 3700km range missile within the next ten years. Assuming such a missile is launched from the northern-most point in Venezuela, every city in an arc from Maine to Detroit and down to San Antonio could be hit. At this point, such a missile is completely theoretical.
   
4. It's important to note that the intelligence community and ballistic missile experts consistently overestimate the development timelines for foreign ballistic missiles. Politically-motivated estimates, like the 1998 Rumsfeld Commission, have an even worse track record.

Let's assume the stars align and Iran not only develops a deliverable nuclear weapon, but also a delivery vehicle of at least 3000km sometime in the next decade, which is probably optimistic. We then have to assume that Iran is willing to essentially give these rare and extremely valuable golden eggs to Venezuela and that Venezuela would be willing to accept them. In order to make this happen, both countries would have to explicitly violate a host of treaties. For example, Venezuela has ratified the Treaty of Tlatelolco.

Could it happen? Sure, anything is possible and we should certainly monitor developments closely to provide warning and opportunity to prevent such a development. However, the whole idea, at this point, seems rather far-fetched to me - a tremendous risk for both countries for little benefit.

It's more likely, in my view, that this is a combination of Iranian and Venezuelan political grandstanding along with the worst-casing that Israel is famous for.

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Originally Posted by Entropy

...anything is possible and we should certainly monitor developments closely to provide warning and opportunity to prevent such a development. However, the whole idea, at this point, seems rather far-fetched to me...
It's more likely, in my view, that this is a combination of Iranian and Venezuelan political grandstanding along with the worst-casing that Israel is famous for.

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Yes, Or wildly wishful thinking (dreaming?) on the part of the first two and and effort to get the big guy on side from the latter... :wry:

I never cease to be amazed at the dotty things that seem to get people unduly excited. :confused:

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Originally Posted by Entropy

Ok, some points to consider:

[LIST=1][*]LOS distance from the northernmost point of Venezuela to the closest major American city (Miami) is about 1800km.

Let's assume the stars align and Iran not only develops a deliverable nuclear weapon,

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Just to be the Devil's Advocate, why assume 1) a land launch and 2) a nuclear weapon? :confused:

http://defensetech.org/2009/02/04/ir...an-emp-weapon/

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Originally Posted by AdamG

Just to be the Devil's Advocate, why assume 1) a land launch and 2) a nuclear weapon? :confused:

http://defensetech.org/2009/02/04/ir...an-emp-weapon/

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Assuming Iran's ballistic missiles could be modified to launch from a sea platform, then what is the purpose of Iranian missile bases in Venezuela?

Secondly, using a nuke for a high-altitude EMP burst isn't such a great strategy unless it's followed up with something else. What are the Iranian's going to do afterward, besides get their asses handed to them? Under what circumstances would they be willing to light off a nuke above the US instead of on the US?

Then there are the practical issues of launching a ballistic missile from a pitching ship, transporting missile and nuke from Iran to the US littoral without getting intercepted, ensuring the missile will operate after exposure to a marine environment, etc.

Again, it's theoretically possible and we should always keep a close eye on the Iranians, but the risk-reward calculation for attempting something like that isn't a favorable one in my opinion.

Bad boy Hugo refuses to accept as 'Ambassador' the individual who has publicly assailed his government, and accused it of arming drug sellers in Columbia. The psuedo-Ambassador also said he would “safeguard American economic interests and investments,” should he serve in Caracas. I' m sure most host countries would welcome such advance planning.

http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/5886

On an earlier occasion, nominee Palmer had stated:

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When asked what his top areas of concern are, Palmer cited “threats to human rights and fundamental freedoms” in Venezuela, including threats to “freedom of expression and of the press, the right to own private property, and freedom of association for civil society.” He further criticized “the increasing centralization of power in the executive branch,” and President Chavez’s “explicit rejection of the separation of powers.

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http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/5560

Just right for a working relationship.

The context includes some of the Wikileaks material, such as this summary of US intentions to "reassert US leadership in the region":

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Kelly, who played a primary role as "mediator" during last year's coup d'etat in Honduras against President Manuel Zelaya, classifies President Hugo Chavez as an "enemy" in his report. "Know the enemy: We have to better understand how Chavez thinks and what he intends...To effectively counter the threat he represents, we need to know better his objectives and how he intends to pursue them. This requires better intelligence in all of our countries". Further on in the memo, Kelly confesses that President Chavez is a "formidable foe", but, he adds, "he certainly can be taken.

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http://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/5870

Further:

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Kelly also revealed the pressure Washington has been applying to Mercosur (Market of the South) to not accept Venezuela as a full member in the regional trade bloc. "With regard to Mercosur, we should not be timid in stating that Venezuela's membership will torpedo US interest in even considering direct negotiations with the trading bloc.

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Economic warfare always a crucial diplomatic effort.

Congratulations to the Obama administration for using the Foreign Service Apparatus to demonstrate continuity with little Bush.

President Chavez has so much hate for the U.S. that he has placed blinders on the range of possibiltities that could actually benefit Veenzuaelans and the people of South America. I submit the following "What ifs" for consideration and debate:

What if: the U.S. and Cuba expanded diplomatic relations and sought a cooperative agreement to promote stability in the Western Hemisphere through collaboration and unity of vision? How could that shape the future security of the Western Hemisphere??? If the two ideological competitors in the Western Hemisphere finally dropped the rhetoric and pushed for the benefit of its citizens... What if???

What if: Hugo Chavez realized that Islamists are "BAD" and that the Islamists (I.E. Iran) are just using him to gain access to the U.S. Although the U.S. has its faults (y suele de sulfur), it is really the best thing going... (author's prejudice). What if???

What if: Hugo worked to capitalize on NAFTA and expand the benefits to South America through a cooperative economic and security agreement with the U.S. , instead of wasting Venezuelan resources to counter "U.S. Imperialists." Opening diplomatic relations could open economic opportunity and enable the "Bolivarian Movement" to provide jobs for "the people" throughout South America. If Chavez's true intention is empowering the people, then this should be a "rational" option... What if???

What if: The Wayuu tribe that converted en masse to Islam and openly welcomed Hezbollah under the auspices of the Chavez government realized that Islam is not synonymous with Islamism, rejected radical Islam (and Hezbollah) and sought to eradicate Islamists (see Bale's definition for Islamism). What if???

What if: The U.S., Cuba, and Brazil stopped using "the people" as the reason for their actions and actually worked together to actually benefit "the people" instead of their own political standing (U.S. included). Government for by the people for the people- just saying... What if???

FOSHIZZLE SENDS

This link has a detailed explanation of what happened with the Venezuela nomination:

http://americasquarterly.org/node/2058

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Originally Posted by Entropy

Assuming Iran's ballistic missiles could be modified to launch from a sea platform, then what is the purpose of Iranian missile bases in Venezuela?

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Gotta do training, storage and logistics somewhere. The missile(s) don't care where they're launched.

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Originally Posted by Entropy

Secondly, using a nuke for a high-altitude EMP burst isn't such a great strategy unless it's followed up with something else. What are the Iranian's going to do afterward, besides get their asses handed to them? Under what circumstances would they be willing to light off a nuke above the US instead of on the US?

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You're assuming you need a nuke to generate a city-crippling EMP burst. I've read otherwise. See http://science.howstuffworks.com/e-bomb3.htm

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Originally Posted by Entropy

Then there are the practical issues of launching a ballistic missile from a pitching ship, transporting missile and nuke from Iran to the US littoral without getting intercepted, ensuring the missile will operate after exposure to a marine environment, etc.

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Reference ship-launched ballistic /SCUD missile launches, I've read otherwise.
See http://www.missilethreat.com/scenarios/

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Originally Posted by Entropy

Again, it's theoretically possible and we should always keep a close eye on the Iranians, but the risk-reward calculation for attempting something like that isn't a favorable one in my opinion.

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You're assuming rational thought amongst our opponents. That can be fatal.
(Or, as Foamy the Squirrel said : "It wouldn't hurt you people to think like a serial killer every now and then...")
See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8eICCKMNEc

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Originally Posted by AdamG

You're assuming you need a nuke to generate a city-crippling EMP burst. I've read otherwise. See http://science.howstuffworks.com/e-bomb3.htm

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Theoretically yes. A lot of things are theoretically possible. Until I see some evidence that someone, especially the Iranians, are developing such a weapon then I'm not going to worry about it too much. Not only that, but why would Iran EMP a US city? Under what scenario or circumstances would the Iranians, or anyone else, use such a weapon? They burn out some electronics and then what?

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Reference ship-launched ballistic /SCUD missile launches, I've read otherwise.
See http://www.missilethreat.com/scenarios/

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Has anyone, anywhere actually tried to launch a scud off a ship? This is another case of something that is possible in theory, very difficult in practice and of limited utility. This isn't a capability that could be done without testing - when I see Iran or any other nation start trying to launch ballistic missiles off of freighters, then I will begin to take this "theat" seriously.

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You're assuming rational thought amongst our opponents. That can be fatal.
(Or, as Foamy the Squirrel said : "It wouldn't hurt you people to think like a serial killer every now and then...")
See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8eICCKMNEc

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We had over 30 years to watch and study the current Iranian government. I don't see much there that suggests the Iranians are irrational actors.

From 2008

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In testimony before the House Armed Services Committee and in remarks to a private conference on missile defense over the weekend hosted by the Claremont Institute, Dr. William Graham warned that the U.S. intelligence community “doesn’t have a story” to explain the recent Iranian tests.

One group of tests that troubled Graham, the former White House science adviser under President Ronald Reagan, were successful efforts to launch a Scud missile from a platform in the Caspian Sea.

“They’ve got [test] ranges in Iran which are more than long enough to handle Scud launches and even Shahab-3 launches,” Dr. Graham said. “Why would they be launching from the surface of the Caspian Sea? They obviously have not explained that to us.”

Another troubling group of tests involved Shahab-3 launches where the Iranians "detonated the warhead near apogee, not over the target area where the thing would eventually land, but at altitude,” Graham said. “Why would they do that?”

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http://www.marketwatch.com/Community...-plans-nuclear

Iran is only half the equation, and a weak half at that - more of an enabler.
Tehran can interdict the flow of Saudi oil, and Venezuela is next up by volume on the suppliers' list.

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ANALYSIS | In a reciprocal action, the United States has revoked the visa of the Venezuelan ambassador to the United States after Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez refused to acknowledge diplomatic ties with the United States. Business Week reports this expulsion is just the latest in many bouts of political feuding between the United States and Venezuela.

Business Week reports Chavez threatened to cut off the oil supply to the United States in 2008 and then backed down. It was around the same time when he backed a Bolivian proposal to expel their American ambassador for alleging the United States' involvement with rebel groups.

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ac/20101230/...es_may_be_next

Here's the non-detailed explanation on what happened to this nomination:

America, standing tall, revoked the visa of the Venezuelan Ambassador. Har har. So is somebody's old man.

If Venezuela is to be cast as an Iranian proliferation problem (! and then some), we should be shedding yet more tears over the destruction of Valerie Plame's Iran-centric program, and the cowardly passivity of our domestic fascist coalition in response.

Adam,

That article was interesting and more than a bit hyperbolic.

I look up the reference to testing on the Caspian Sea and it's basis is one Washington Times article written in 1999. The relevant passage is this:

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Iran has test fired a sea-launched ballistic missile, according to classified U.S. intelligence reports, which could be used in a devastating stealth attack against the United States or Israel for which the United States has no known or planned defense.

The reports, which are well-known to the White House but have not been disseminated to the appropriate congressional committees, detailed the test-firing by Iran of a short-range surface-to-surface missile last spring from a barge in the Caspian Sea.

Members of the congressionally mandated Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, chaired by former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, were briefed on the Iranian test as they were writing their final report last June, but have been prevented from mentioning it in public because the information remains classified. In the report's Executive Summary, released on July 15, 1998, the commission warned of "alternative ballistic missile launch modes" such as sea launch, but did not mention Iran by name.

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The commission mentioned is the Rumsfeld Commission I mentioned earlier. All of it's predictions were wildly wrong.

Let's assume for a minute this article correctly described the intelligence report and further assume the intelligence report was accurate. Where does that put us? One possible test 12 years ago. That doesn't sound like much of a development program to me.

I could go through the whole article point-by-point, but do not have the time nor the desire. You might consider motivations here as a lot of the players mentioned were heavily involved in the Rumsfeld Commission.

Speaking only for myself, this is a group of people who share a common goal in the promotion of ballistic missile defenses. In the 1990's they used the Rumsfeld Commission to bolster political support for that goal. More recently, they rediscovered EMP and come up with implausible and self-serving scenarios that were created to "prove" that missile defense is the only way to stop the "threat." Any criticism of the threat has an "answer" so that the conclusion is always the same. From the article (emphasis added):

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The only possible deterrent against Iran is the prospect of failure, Dr. Graham and other experts agreed. And the only way the United States could credibly threaten an Iranian missile strike would be to deploy effective national missile defenses.

“It’s well known that people don’t go on a diet until they’ve had a heart attack,” said Claremont Institute president Brian T. Kennedy. “And we as a nation are having a heart attack” when it comes to the threat of an EMP attack from Iran.

“As of today, we have no defense against such an attack. We need space-based missile defenses to protect against an EMP attack,” he told Newsmax.

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This is, in short, a very nice piece of propaganda designed to promote a specific policy objective. It's rife with internal contradictions and exaggerations. I would suggest that you treat the claims in this article with a high degree of skepticism.

Iran+Venezuela. The new missile gap avatar. That was Saddam for a brief moment. "He will get these weapons he doesn't have yet, then he will give them to somebody or other, and they will find a way to use them against us. We have to spend billions in response before this happens!"

Eisenhower's military-industrial complex warning continues to have infinite half-life. This Hugo Chavez guy is the best possible candidate to make Reagan's star wars dream look like a bake sale.

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CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - The United States and Venezuela are starting the year without ambassadors in Caracas and Washington due to an intensifying diplomatic dispute that is likely to persist and boost President Hugo Chavez's long-standing antagonism.

Both sides have shown firmly entrenched stances and no willingness to compromise in the past week as the U.S. government revoked the Venezuelan ambassador's visa in response to Chavez's refusal to accept the chosen U.S. envoy.

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http://apnews.myway.com/article/20110101/D9KFO2BG0.html

For the U.S., such alliances are a variation of the "Pottery Barn Rule" of "You break it, you buy it."

In this case it is more one of "You excluded these guys from full participation in the world, you labeled them as "evil", and now they are not so surprisingly working together and don't like you very much." A "you built it, you deal with it." situation.

We love enemies though, as that is what makes containment work. If we can't get anyone to be our enemy, we have no one to contain, and then what?? Come up with a new strategy?? AQ and all these guys put together hardly make a pimple on the Soviets butt though. Oh, for the good old days...

(Seriously, we could disempower this little coalition with some easy changes of policy, and it is high time for a new guiding strategy for the nation anyway.)

As with many of these types of issues, one must look deeply into Venezuelan domestic politics and its 'idiosyncrasies' before worrying about anything regional or global.

HG is extremely paranoid and is building a regime to protect him and his disciples, nothing more. The regime is so corrupt and incompetent they cannot manage the economy and are slowly but surely strangling themselves and turning the clock back so that Vz can resemble the USSR and poverty-stricken Cuba.

Remember also, Cuba is the strategic model here; Chavez does not want educated classes in 'his' Vz and only wants a subserviant, ignorant population that has, and is, bought off with state subsidies and other welfare-esque bribes.

The real threat here is to Colombia. HG supports the FARC and the chances of his govt. selling sophisticated weaponry to these terrorists poses a threat to the Colombian state. This is more critcial now that Santos is in charge and the Colombians are clearly winning the war.

Soviet and Iranian weaponry will just rust on Venezuelan tarmacs, but small arms and assorted infantry type weapons can be used far more effectively and immediately.

Chavez is a coward; this has been proven in his previous coup in 2002 when he refused to fight it out with the Vz armed foces; he always backs down from fights that he starts; he does not have the stomach for war, only the ego.

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North Korea appears to be protesting the joint U.S. and South Korean military maneuvers by jamming Global Positioning Devices in the south, which is a nuisance for cell phone and computers users -- but is a hint of the looming menace for the military.

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The North is believed to be nearing completion of an electromagnetic pulse bomb that, if exploded 25 miles above ground would cause irreversible damage to electrical and electronic devices such as mobile phones, computers, radio and radar, experts say.

"We assume they are at a considerably substantial level of development," Park Chang-kyu of the Agency for Defense Development said at a briefing to the parliament Monday.

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http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ry?id=13081667

Update

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The Iranian military involvement in the project extends to bunker, barracks and watch tower construction. Twenty-meter deep rocket silos are planned. The cost of the Venezuelan military project is being paid for with Iranian oil revenue. The Iranians paid in cash for the preliminary phase of the project and, the total cost is expected to amount to “dozens of millions” of dollars, Die Welt wrote.

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http://www.jpost.com/International/A...aspx?id=220879

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(Reuters) - Iran raised the prospect on Tuesday of sending military ships close to the United States' Atlantic coast, in what would be a major escalation of tensions between the long-standing adversaries.

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The declaration comes just weeks after Turkey said it would host a NATO early warning radar system which will help spot missile threats from outside Europe, including potentially from Iran. The decision has angered Tehran which had enjoyed close relations with Ankara.

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Link to rest of tale

AdamG;126118

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(Reuters) - Iran raised the prospect on Tuesday of sending military ships close to the United States' Atlantic coast, in what would be a major escalation of tensions between the long-standing adversaries.

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The USN will laugh themselves into a state of discombobulation ... :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by Ken White

AdamG;126118The USN will laugh themselves into a state of discombobulation ... :rolleyes:

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On the surface, Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari's trash-talk reads like an ONION article. I'm not familiar enough with the man to know if he's an addled old man prone to running his mouth, but what if this was more along the lines of a slip of the tongue?

This board being all about the Asymmetrical Threats and whatnot, here's something to chew on from five years ago...

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A Pentagon assessment of the U.S. capability to defend the homeland against incoming enemy cruise missiles has found what it calls “capability gaps” that may not be solved until 2015.
As a result, the Air Force's directorate of operational capability requirements is leading a Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System study “to determine the best approaches for mitigating high-risk joint gaps in the [Homeland Air and Cruise Missile Defense of North America] mission area,” according to an Aug. 9 request for information posted on Federal Business Opportunities.

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Pentagon and Missile Defense Agency officials increasingly are concerned with the threat of terrorists using a cargo ship to fire cruise and ballistic missiles just off U.S. shores but outside its territorial waters.

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http://www.military.com/features/0,15240,110199,00.html

Nor is the potential for their actually being able to mount such a deployments with their half dozen submarines or an equal number of DD/FF types and one tanker. They do have some cargo vessels that could make the trip unrefueled but those aren't "military ships"...

Even though we keep an eye on their ships and aircraft out in the world, they could do what you imply: "Pentagon and Missile Defense Agency officials increasingly are concerned with the threat of terrorists using a cargo ship to fire cruise and ballistic missiles just off U.S. shores but outside its territorial waters. ".

That raises four questions, two before the act -- in spite of our surveillance could they actually get here and launch such an attack? Why would they do that? Those two not withstanding, should they actually launch such an attack, while there would probably be symbolic damage should that occur, there are two questions thus raised; how much damage did they really cause to the rather large US land mass and and concomitantly large population? What would happen to the 'fleet' of the Iraniha and to Iran if they did?

While the cred of the Admiral isn't really material, it is worth noting that the Iranian hierarchy does tend to bluster and portend things they really have no intention of doing. The Mullahs are dotty but they aren't stupid. Some time spent in Iran gave me a firm belief that they bluster and bluff a great deal -- haggling is a national sport, after all -- but are really pretty shrewd when it comes to what they actually do.

Some seem to have or look for plenty to worry about. That's fine but I'll put this one in 'highly unlikely' category with respect to occurrence and possible damage even if it did -- and go back to dozing... :D

Isn't it obvious to invite the ship to a friendly visit to a harbour such a NY when it's already so close after such a long journey?

It's a win/win, no matter declined or not.

Maybe the leadership of Iran looks out over the Gulf, and thinks "Wow. Look at all those American ships. That must be ALL of them. They have left their coasts undefended."

I don't know what the Iranian Navy consists of. I do know what the seventh fleet consisted of in 1992 to 96.

I don't often get to use the word gobsmacked. But if Iran was so foolhardy and inept as to park a threat off the east coast...

Comedic relief. "Sir, visual contact to starboard. It's the Iranian Navy. Shall I scramble the alert 5?"

"Nah."

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(Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez dismissed a U.S. warning to avoid close ties with Iran on Sunday, denouncing what he said was Washington's attempt to dominate the world as he prepared to welcome the Iranian president to the Latin American nation.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8070Q120120108

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Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Venezuela's Hugo Chavez lavished praise on each other on Monday, mocked U.S. disapproval and joked about having an atomic bomb at their disposal. * As he often does, the theatrical and provocative Chavez stuck his finger right into the global political sore spot, joking that a bomb was ready under a grassy knoll in front of his Miraflores palace steps. "That hill will open up and a big atomic bomb will come out," he said, the two men laughing together.

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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45938366.../#.TwxadW9rNNU

AdamG,

Doesn't the meeting of the two presidents remind you of the rather strange relationship between Hitler and Mussolini?:eek:

I wonder if history will repeat itself. Notably one nation being found to be a "paper tiger" that needs propping up in war.

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Originally Posted by davidbfpo

AdamG,

Doesn't the meeting of the two presidents remind you of the rather strange relationship between Hitler and Mussolini?:eek:

I wonder if history will repeat itself. Notably one nation being found to be a "paper tiger" that needs propping up in war.

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plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose Yeah, I know : Daily Mail. Still.


Oh yeah, you might want to read this thread

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TEHRAN (FNA)- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a meeting with former Cuban President Fidel Castro stressed the common positions of Tehran and Havana on different international issues, and called for the further reinvigoration of ties between the two countries.

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http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9010170873

& for those who don't want to hit FARS
http://www.timesunion.com/news/artic...ro-2501059.php

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(CBS News) Top United States intelligence officials had a dire warning for Congress on Tuesday; that Iran would likely launch terrorist attacks on U.S. soil as pressure mounts against the regime in Tehran. The alarming assessment is making a tense situation even more serious.

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http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505263_1...strike-in-u.s/

Regardless of the bellicose rhetoric, oil imports from Venezuela remain VITAL to the US economy (i think they remain in the top 5 providers to the US). If Chavez truly wished to harm the US, and commit national or at least regime suicide, he could attempt to prevent oil from flowing to the US and/or disrupt oil exports from Mexico. Either of these moves would hurt far worse than the Straits of Hormuz being closed.

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Originally Posted by Strickland

Regardless of the bellicose rhetoric, oil imports from Venezuela remain VITAL to the US economy (i think they remain in the top 5 providers to the US). If Chavez truly wished to harm the US, and commit national or at least regime suicide, he could attempt to prevent oil from flowing to the US and/or disrupt oil exports from Mexico. Either of these moves would hurt far worse than the Straits of Hormuz being closed.

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Right before Nigeria.
ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/pe...nt/import.html

Acting alone, Venezuela would be stupid but in concert with others?

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Building recent on efforts to strengthen political relationships between Tehran and South American nations, Iran has announced intentions to launch HispanTV to expand their influence in the region, and give their strategic influence a wider audience.

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http://insightsur.com/2012/02/02/ira...h-language-tv/

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Iran and Middle East-based extremist groups are stepping up their activities in South America, aiming to make friends and score cash, a senior U.S. military official says.

Tehran intends to build military drones in Washington's backyard for the Venezuelan military led by Hugo Chavez, U.S. Southern Command chief Gen. Douglas Fraser told reporters Wednesday during a breakfast meeting in Washington.

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http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/dot...-south-america

I think this Israeli think tank report sits best here, especially Venezuela is centre stage with Iran and then there's Hezbollah:http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/mal.../iran_e163.htm

It ends with:

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Iran's activities in Latin America and its readiness to carry out terrorist attacks on American soil (manifested by the attempted assassination in Washington of the Saudi Arabian ambassador) led Roger Noriega (added an AEI analyst) to the conclusion that "Tehran's activities near our homeland constitute a very real threat that can no longer be ignored." (ITIC emphasis) Despite with the grave assessments of the Iranian threat as expressed in a number of expert testimonies before Congress, certain members of the American administration are of the opinion that Iran's influence in Latin America is limited and that the United States can minimize it.

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Not exactly an impartial review; Israel and those who lean a certain way maybe convinced.

Meanwhile, over at the Blog...
http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art...-latin-america

From Admiral Lyons -

LYONS: Regime change needs to be endgame for Iran
Missile proliferation justifies U.S. strikes

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Iran has extensively penetrated Venezuelan economic, industrial, banking and petroleum industries. Venezuela has become one of the principal vehicles for Iran to work around U.N. sanctions. Furthermore, Venezuela has become the support base for Iranian infiltration throughout Latin and Central America. The Iranian proxy terrorist group Hezbollah has established bases throughout Venezuela, including Margarita Island, and Cuba.

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http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...game-for-iran/