Background on AQIM: a growing threat?

Moderator's Note

This thread was entitled 'In Timbuktu, al-Qaida left behind a manifesto' and was merged today with a single post thread 'AQ centre's final letter to their most difficult employee'. The thread has been renamed 'Background on AQIM: a growing threat?'.

There are several closely related threads, in the Africa section, which provide far more background, notably 'Ripples from Mali: events plus outside Mali' and 'Mali mainly...', neither of which qualify for merging here today.(Ends).

Thanks to AP an amazing discovery in Mali, that sits better as a source document for AQ globally, hence here!

It starts with:

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In their hurry to flee last month, al-Qaida fighters left behind a crucial document: Tucked under a pile of papers and trash is a confidential letter, spelling out the terror network's strategy for conquering northern Mali and reflecting internal discord over how to rule the region.

The document is an unprecedented window into the terrorist operation, indicating that al-Qaida predicted the military intervention that would dislodge it in January and recognized its own vulnerability.

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I know there is a thread on AQ's management structure mimicking modern, commercial management, so this fits in:

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The clear-headed, point-by-point assessment resembles a memo from a CEO to his top managers and lays out for his jihadists in Mali what they have done wrong in months past, and what they need to do to correct their behavior in the future.

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Puzzling to note the emphasis on slowing down implementation of Sharia rule, which whilst acknowledged as needed was not followed.

Read all the AP article:http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_289563/con...tguid=A1KPEpDa

There is a much shorter article:http://english.alarabiya.net/article...14/266280.html

Further context is given by FP, which cites other documents, in an article 'Inside the Islamic Emirate of Timbuktu: An exclusive trove of al Qaeda documents found in this fabled city shows a theocracy in the making in Mali':http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...mali?page=full

Al Qaeda in Mali sought to hide foreign designs

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...ite-Wide%29%29

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"As for foreign policies, you must adopt mature and moderate rhetoric that reassures and calms," he writes. "To do so, you must avoid any statements that are provocative to neighboring countries and avoid repeated threats. Better for you to be silent and pretend to be a 'domestic' movement that has its own causes and concerns. There is no call for you to show that we have an expansionary, jihadi, Qaeda or any other sort of project."

Droukdel then notes the importance of keeping Mali under al Qaeda's sphere of influence in order to keep it as a "refuge" and a base for operations.

"Gaining a region under our control and a people fighting for us and a refuge for our members that allows us to move forward with our program at this stage is no small thing and nothing to be underestimated," he notes. "The enemy's constant, persistent effort now is to not leave any safe havens for the Mujahedeen. So take that into account."

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Foreign Affairs on Mali and Niger, worth a Look...

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...niger_4-021313

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After Mali Comes Niger
West Africa's Problems Migrate East

Last month, the French army's rapid advance into northern Mali and the timely deployment of troops from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) seemed to result in a swift victory over Islamist and Tuareg militants there. Equally important, however, was the Islamist and Tuareg militants' hasty withdrawal into northeastern Mali. With France planning to pull its troops out of the country as soon as March, Mali will almost certainly be turned into an ECOWAS trusteeship. The most likely upshot is not a neat end to the conflict but, rather, a migration of the problem into neighboring Niger...

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Originally Posted by Bill Moore

Al Qaeda in Mali sought to hide foreign designs

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv...ite-Wide%29%29

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This sounds an awful lot like a forged document.
Right now I cannot remember another war-related document capture confirming suspicions so nicely, being such a perfect vindication of fears.

The papers captured in the Mechelen incident are the closest historical example I can recall.

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Originally Posted by Fuchs

This sounds an awful lot like a forged document.
Right now I cannot remember another war-related document capture confirming suspicions so nicely, being such a perfect vindication of fears.

The papers captured in the Mechelen incident are the closest historical example I can recall.

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Those are my feelings exactly, it appears to be generated to champion the current strategy. The question is who generated it? France or the U.S.? Definitely doesn't read like the other translated Islamist Manifestos I read. I think this so poorly conceived that it doesn't come across as feasible. If it is legitimate I would be surprised and wonder if this is the view of one Jihadist who can't think strategically or the movement as a whole?

Previous manifestos emphasizing waving the black flag in various countries to draw the West in intentionally with the stated intent of bankrupting us. That is a true asymmetric strategy. Unless there has been a considerable change in their approach, I suspect their intent was to draw the West in. There are different levels of drawing in, if the French keep their intervention short and then the West conducts small scale low visibility special operations it will be affordable and ultimately result in their defeat. If we attempt another major stability operation we'll be playing into their game.

This comes just after Canada expressed their fear of a "new Iraq or Afghanistan" in Mali to justify not sending troops.
IMHO this (the document + Canada position + that particular discussion) translate the feeling some political deciders may have: after 2 invasions that turned to be half victories at best they are very much affraid to engage their troops in an another military adventure. In that perspective, AQ reached one of its objectives: terrorise governments.

On the other hand, what Bob is saying makes a lot of sens:

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There are different levels of drawing in, if the French keep their intervention short and then the West conducts small scale low visibility special operations it will be affordable and ultimately result in their defeat. If we attempt another major stability operation we'll be playing into their game.

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But I believe many in the field and at the flag level are aware of that choice.

By all means, let's adopt the George Armstrong Custer Strategy:

1. Disregard available intelligence.
2. Disparage the opponents capabilities.
3. Adopt a tactically (and in this case, strategically) inferior position.
4. Victory!

Look how well it worked for him!

Because, it could be a fraud. There's no evidence whatsoever that it is, but we all know how clever those intelligence agencies are at making completely undetectably fraudulent documents that read exactly as though they were written by the people they want us to think wrote them. They're even so devilishly clever they have the documents written saying exactly the same things as the purported authors would say!

Probably the same group that Bush, Chaney and Haliburton used to plan 09/11.

</sarc>

Somebody has learned. A lot. I recall discussion of this from the early 2000s - as this conflict progressed, the stupid would get weeded out and Al Qaeda would become more effective, and more dangerous. These fragments indicate that at least one person in their senior leadership has gained some knowledge about effective social change.

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Originally Posted by Bill Moore

Those are my feelings exactly, it appears to be generated to champion the current strategy. The question is who generated it? France or the U.S.?
(...)
That is a true asymmetric strategy. Unless there has been a considerable change in their approach, I suspect their intent was to draw the West in. (...) If we attempt another major stability operation we'll be playing into their game.

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Forged by US, forged by France, forged by AP, or maybe even forged by AQIM itself to achieve exactly what you wrote last.

Anyway, I've rarely had had such a strange feeling about news. It's fitting too nicely to a simple narrative. Reality rarely does this.

Shiraz Maher, ICSR @ Kings College London, has written a short 'Insight' commentary:http://icsr.info/2013/02/icsr-insigh...from-mistakes/

It ends with:

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This document offers one insight from a primary source document of just how al-Qaeda is reconsidering its strategic approach.

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The main points start with:

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This ICSR Insight summarises key themes, revealing how al-Qaeda is learning from its previous failures, becoming more aware of the need to engage and capture public opinion in the territories it controls, and maturing in tactical awareness.

One of the most notable features of al-Qaeda’s internal communications which discuss how the movement should best exploit the political turmoil arising from the Arab uprisings is its implicit recognition of past failures.

In what seems like a clear reference to al-Qaeda’s failure in Iraq, the document argues that the greatest errors happen where the group is overstretched, alienates public opinion, and squanders opportunities to establish safe havens.

To consolidate al-Qaeda’s position in northern Mali, Droukdel advises his fighters to engage other Islamists. This is, again, an important departure from established al-Qaeda strategy which has traditionally been hostile to other groups — viewing them with suspicion.....Finally, Droukdel is acutely aware of the need to manage perceptions of al-Qaeda’s ambitions among both policy makers in the West, and local Muslims. He advises fighters to adopt a more temperate tone and to avoid making unnecessary statements which inflame public opinion.

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This is, again, an important departure from established al-Qaeda strategy which has traditionally been hostile to other groups — viewing them with suspicion.....

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The record doesn't support this claim. They have a long track record of co-opting other groups. Much like any coalition to include ours their are disagreements in the ranks and fissures that can and should be exploited.

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In what seems like a clear reference to al-Qaeda’s failure in Iraq, the document argues that the greatest errors happen where the group is overstretched, alienates public opinion, and squanders opportunities to establish safe havens.

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AQ Senior Leadership frequently criticized AQI leadership for excesses, so this isn't a good example of AQ core strategy, and furthermore it appears AQI is now making a come back and extending their reach into Syria.

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Posed by Fuchs

Forged by US, forged by France, forged by AP, or maybe even forged by AQIM itself to achieve exactly what you wrote last.

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It is a narrative many of CT policy folks believe in, and I can't help but think this appears to be crafted to justify their expensive CT strategy. Denying safe havens with occupation forces is not sustainable and all too often results in our actions defeating ourselves.

The tactical fight is important, preventing terrorist attacks is important, but most of our CT strategists seem to confuse the tactical with the strategic. In no way am I implying we should reduce pressure on their foot soldiers and leaders. However, from a strategic view it seems that the only feasible way for AQ and their ilk to achieve their aims is if we enable them by defeating ourselves by over extending ourselves financially. Strategies, campaigns, etc. must be sustainable to be feasible. If what appears to be the perfect strategy isn't sustainable, then it isn't the perfect strategy.

Intelligence, special operations, law enforcement operations for the most part seem to be appropriate and sustainable responses to this type of threat (this includes substantial psychological warfare to hasten their defeat, because ultimately AQ seem to defeat themselves over time whenever they gain a foothold, and regardless of whether they're a learning organization or not, it is likely they'll continue to do so based on their deeply flawed and unappealing ideology). When needed for specific cases we can surge in paratroopers or Marines for a short duration operations to reduce their paramilitary threat.

It is too late in Afghanistan to change course substantially. We need to finish what we started (with more modest aims, but we can't afford to bail), but in the future I hope we don't default to long term stability operations with a large footprint on the ground with the ever elusive goal of denying safe haven. Never say never, as there may be rare exceptions where that is the best course of action, but it shouldn't be the default option.

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Originally Posted by Bill Moore

... but in the future I hope we don't default to long term stability operations with a large footprint on the ground with the ever elusive goal of denying safe haven. Never say never, as there may be rare exceptions where that is the best course of action, but it shouldn't be the default option.

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I agree with that.

Building on it, shouldn't we simply let them have their safe haven and establish a harsh cordon sanitaire around it? I don't think it would take much in the way of manpower, and could be enforced with drone strikes. Let them have their 6th century sharia derived utopia, as long as they don't bother the rest of us.

Safe havens are also known as free fire zones. :D

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Originally Posted by J Wolfsberger

I agree with that.

Building on it, shouldn't we simply let them have their safe haven and establish a harsh cordon sanitaire around it? I don't think it would take much in the way of manpower, and could be enforced with drone strikes. Let them have their 6th century sharia derived utopia, as long as they don't bother the rest of us.

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Cordon sanitaire enforced by drone strikes?!? Seriously?


Not far south of Malia and Niger is ended the expansion of Muslim faith. That is containing.

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Originally Posted by Fuchs

Not far south of Malia and Niger is ended the expansion of Muslim faith. That is containing.

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The concern may be less with containing the spread of an Islamist empire than with containing individuals or small groups who may leave the area with the intent and capacity to make messes elsewhere.

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Originally Posted by Dayuhan

The concern may be less with containing the spread of an Islamist empire than with containing individuals or small groups who may leave the area with the intent and capacity to make messes elsewhere.

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The difference doesn't matter, for drones are no answer to either scenario. There's too much faith being put into technology and stand-off solutions.

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Originally Posted by Fuchs

The difference doesn't matter, for drones are no answer to either scenario. There's too much faith being put into technology and stand-off solutions.

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Drones may not be "an answer" to the problem of a potential Islamist state exporting jihadis, but they can certainly disrupt and degrade efforts to train and deploy them. I don't know that there is "an answer" in any simple and convincing sense, but it is at least worth considering the possibility that in some circumstances simply letting the jihadis have their state and trying to contain the consequences might be a better answer than trying to preserve a non-jihadi state through perpetual occupation. Whether or not that is the case in any given situation would require analysis specific to that situation, but it's not a possibility that should be excluded from the start, IMO.

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Originally Posted by Dayuhan

Drones may not be "an answer" to the problem of a potential Islamist state exporting jihadis, but they can certainly disrupt and degrade efforts to train and deploy them. I don't know that there is "an answer" in any simple and convincing sense, but it is at least worth considering the possibility that in some circumstances simply letting the jihadis have their state and trying to contain the consequences might be a better answer than trying to preserve a non-jihadi state through perpetual occupation. Whether or not that is the case in any given situation would require analysis specific to that situation, but it's not a possibility that should be excluded from the start, IMO.

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Agree that disrupting Islamist intentions with drones is a viable "tactic," but it won't result in a strategic victory. If they had their own state then they would have something to lose, at least in theory, and then they may be able to be deterred. Of course that didn't work so well in Afghanistan. Like you said no easy answers. In the meantime finding ways to kill them in a sustainable manner seems to be the best course of action.

A commentary by Andrew Lebovich on the documents found, giving some context and a caveat:

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Still, while these documents raise some fascinating subjects and questions, they provide only snapshots in a complicated tableau.

(Later)...Additionally, the documents present more anecdotal evidence that previous conceptions of AQIM may be incorrect, or at least severely deficient.

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Link:http://thewasat.wordpress.com/2013/0...ict-documents/

He also refers an:

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...her excellent book Smugglers and Saints of the Sahara, (by) the British social anthropologist Judith Scheele discusses the conception that many Algerian traders and their families held — and still hold — about northern Mali as a kind of wilderness that corrupted men and ruined families...

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This was published in April 2012, but has no review on Amazon.com:http://www.amazon.com/Smugglers-Sain...+of+the+Sahara

Ah, there is one five* on:http://www.amazon.co.uk/product-reviews/1107022126

Now this is, well, curious; in a tweet by Andrew Lebovich:

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RFI got the whole document published in part earlier by AP

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The linked story expands a little, so hopefully the full document will appear one day:http://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20130224-m...ent-tombouctou

The War Nerd: It Ain’t Easy Being a Jihadi Middle Manager, Feb 15th, 2013.

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Over and over, Droukdel says that it’s not politically smart to start amputating people’s hands and whipping women for not covering up. He talks like middle management—which he is, in the ridiculous Al Qaeda organizational chart. He talks about Mali as a “project,” as if he was dealing with product placement in a new franchise—which he was, according to his terms. And like a good guerrilla manager who’s read his Mao, he tries to teach the knuckleheads working for him that taking and losing territory isn’t nearly as important as winning over the people.

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RUSI's Director, Professor Michael Clarke, weighs in with his analysis:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment...511D272D72DDC/

He concludes:

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What these documents show us is a centrally-directed attempt to achieve all the old Al Qa'ida ambitions; to ally with other political movements in order to hijack them; to fight heroic guerrilla wars for disputed territory, and to build up a new Caliphate that will extend across the Middle East and far beyond. They are aims which are as old fashioned as they are chilling.

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Has anyone seen a reaction from AQIM to these revelations?

Clint Watts adds his analysis:http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/201...essons-learned

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Don’t feel bad U.S. military, you are not the only force struggling to make better decisions from your lessons learned. Al Qaeda and particularly their Sahel affiliate, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), struggle to improve their operations based on analyses of past failures as evidence in the Associated Press’s (AP) recent publication of AQIM leader Abdelmalek Droukdel’s confidential letter to his fighters in Mali. While an incomplete manuscript, three chapters of AQIM guidance discovered in Timbuktu provide some clarity to al Qaeda’s strategic thinking in a post-Bin Laden era.

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Later:

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The document provides a fascinating peak into the mindset of al Qaeda affiliates after Bin Laden’s death. While flashes of Bin Laden’s intent appear in Droukdel’s dispatch, AQIM’s strategic plan to integrate with local groups appears to undermine itself in two key ways.

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A fascinating AP report on the relationship between AQ centre and their affiliate Moktar Belmoktar in the Sahara (AQIM); almost amusing. There is a very short thread on AQ's management style, AQ's M&A Strategy is a franchising network:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=11974

Here is one passage:

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Your letter ... contained some amount of backbiting, name-calling and sneering. And such brotherly, official correspondence should not contain this style of language....We refrained from wading into this battle in the past out of a hope that the crooked could be straightened by the easiest and softest means. ... But the wound continued to bleed, and in fact increasingly bled, until your last letter arrived, ending any hope of stanching the wound and healing it.

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AP's article:http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/05...aced-internal/

Link to letter itself:http://hosted.ap.org/specials/intera...er-english.pdf

Step forward CWOT with is analysis:http://selectedwisdom.com/?p=1088

A rather catchy title from Reuters, but has some gems within:http://mobile.reuters.com/article/id...30809?irpc=932

This report served as the catalyst for merging threads (see Post No.1).:wry:

Professor John Schindler of the U.S. Naval War College and blogger 20Committee, has re-Tweeted a 2012 article 'The Ugly Truth about Algeria', with many links worth pursuing:http://nationalinterest.org/commenta...t-algeria-7146

One link I peered at:http://www.lrb.co.uk/v26/n19/adam-sh...murder-mystery

Outside France few know of the Algerian military intelligence, DRS:

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The lead agency in the fight against the Algerian mujahidin has been the country’s military intelligence service, the feared DRS. With a reputation for ruthlessness and efficiency second to none in the Arab world, the DRS is arguably the world’s most effective intelligence service when it comes to fighting Al Qaeda; it is also probably the most cold-blooded.

(Later on)To what extent the local Al Qaeda affiliate is secretly controlled by the military—as GIA and GSPC were—is an open question, but its recent record suggests that DRS influence over any Algerian extremist group is considerable.

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The DRS appear in the main thread on Mali IIRC and there is a small thread on contemporary Algerian matters:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=2079

Hat tip to Andrew Lebovich for noting this development in his blog commentary 'Of Mergers, MUJAO, and Mokhtar Belmokhtar', a summary and a longer 3k word piece:http://thewasat.wordpress.com/2013/0...ar-belmokhtar/ and http://thewasat.wordpress.com/2013/0...ar-belmokhtar/

Not sure why RFI have taken months to publish this, but this week an update on the Droukdel document was published, in French so the link may need Google's translation to help:

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RFI broadcasts all the roadmap for AQIM Azawad, a document signed by the hand of the leader of AQIM, found February 16, 2013 by Nicolas Champeaux and Jean-Louis Le Touzet, envoys of RFI and Liberation in Timbuktu. In this paper edifying, dated 20 July 2012, the bloody Abdelmalek Droukdel reveals black and white its target in northern Mali: create an Islamic state that will not be labeled Jihad. Droukdel clearly shows how: his men are fool local people to armed movements in the North the illusion that they have power, and not to arouse the attention of the international community. To achieve its goals, Droukdel is ready to give the full and immediate implementation of Sharia. This paper therefore reveals a surprising shift in the strategy of the terrorist leader and also confirms the deep tensions within the branch of al-Qaeda. Finally, he said that Mali is not immune to a return of jihadists. This is the first time such an internal document of AQIM is distributed in its entirety.

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The document is within the article and is twelve pages long (which may not translate readily).

Link:http://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20131006-m...da-sanguinaire

A short BBC overview of the jihadist threat across West Africa; which fits here I think:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-35349005

There is a parallel thread on West Africa and the Gulf of Guinea:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=11204

Paul Rogers offers a brief overview of ISIS to AQIM across Africa and most recently an attack in the Ivory Coast:https://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-r...-isis-to-aqim?

He ends:

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In late 2015 there was a common view in western security circles that ISIS was in retreat and that AQIM and Shabaab were greatly weakened. In the space of just three months that has been turned on its head. In a familiar pattern, a burst of optimism about the prospects of the 'war on terror' has been shown to have flimsy foundations. The west's continuing failure to understand what is happening fuels a conflict out of control.

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I expect this decision was not widely reported:

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On March 2, several prominent North African terror groups announced their official unification with al-Qaeda’s regional affiliate, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). In a video statement announcing the merger, the leaders of several Sahel-based terror groups pledge their allegiance to al-Qaeda’s central leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, as well as AQIM leader Abu Musab Abdel Wadoud. The official merger of some of the region’s most lethal terrorist organizations under the banner of al-Qaeda demonstrates the group’s successful strategy of cultivating long-term relationships with local extremist organizations to expand its global network. The consolidation of the Sahel’s extremist groups into an existing al-Qaeda franchise—coming just after a similar merger of extremist groups in Syria—makes clear that this model remains highly successful for al-Qaeda.

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Link:http://www.soufangroup.com/tsg-intel...-in-the-sahel/