The history of the concept of the 'conflict curve'
Does anybody here know the origins of the 'conflict curve' concept (or the stages of a conflict)? I've been struck for some time now by the (mostly implicit) power this concept has acquired in our thinking about wars and conflicts. In my own career, I started observing the use of the more general concept probably sometime in mid- to late-90s. This then at some point transformed into the '4 phases' etc.
But does anybody know who first drew the 'hump' with the stages on the x-, and the level of violence on the y-axis?
-Stephan
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The "Ideal" Humpless Camel
sdspieg -
Your RAND charts are interesting. Going back to the French practitioners of the late 50s and earlier 60s (say through Jack McCuen's The Art of Counter-revolutionary War), the ideal has been expressed (though not often realized) of avoiding or at least reducing the "conflict hump" by elevating the less violent "things to be done".
As in this add to your first chart:
Attachment 1299
As Bob Jones shamelessly points out (:):D), he is involved in this same hunt.
Regards
Mike
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Discussion Guides and Linearity
Like any other visual aids, these curves are (should be) discussion guides. E.g., this second one illustrates altering the initial conditions to shift and reshape the more violent part of the curve.
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The point of my post was that an incumbant government faced with an insurgency (or possible insurgency) should firstly think of its strategic base areas and change what can be changed. Thus, first look to concepts of dissuade, deter and stabilize as necessary first steps (much more of the political struggle).
My only problem with these and other charts (incl. mine) is that they appear to be linear. In reality we deal with multiple dimensions.
Regards
Mike