Winding down in Afghanistan: a victory for Pakistan?
Myra McDonald using an ex-ISI chief's speech asks what does the exit or re-roling in Afghanistan mean for Pakistan.
A hat tip to WoTR is due:http://warontherocks.com/2014/12/exp...singlepage=1#_
Near the start, a taster:
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For anyone who believes Pakistan’s aim in Afghanistan all along has been to turn the clock back to Sept 10, 2001 – when it exercised its influence over the country through its Taliban allies – it could almost have been a victory speech.
I guarantee her penultimate passage will upset SWC readers:
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Like other suggestions about Pakistani policy, the idea that the Pakistani security establishment is emerging from the Afghan war more confident than ever is only one possibility. It does however raise a fundamental question about U.S. policy. The default position in Washington has been to see Pakistan as insecure, a notion made all the more convincing by the prickliness of its security and intelligence officials. What if the opposite were true – that a nuclear-armed Pakistan whose Taliban allies survived the war is coming out of the Afghan war feeling very secure?
The Kings War Studies speech by ret'd General Durrani, forty five minutes long:https://soundcloud.com/warstudies/sets/events
Plenty there to mull over. SWC already have a few threads on Pakistan's relationship with the USA, China and related issues, such as internal security.
Afghanistan, its neighbours and non-NATO nations
This is the fourth of five new threads, its focus is the often, to be polite turbulent, complex relationship with its neighbours, hence the title Afghanistan, its neighbours and non-NATO nations; yes, India, Iran, Pakistan, China and Russia.
There are numerous threads on this theme, including a number in the South Asia arena, so I have refrained from listing them all and chosen the most relevant IMHO:
1) China's role in Afghanistan: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=16608
2) The Indian role in Afghanistan: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=3166
3)Iran & USA allies in Afghanistan:stranger than reality: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...read.php?t=729
The South Asia arena: http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...splay.php?f=74
I expect there can be cross-over between the topics, notably how the US, with NATO, respond to these nations interaction with the Afghan national government, the Taliban and each other. Not to overlook Afghanistan's "best friend" and often unhelpful, even hostile neighbour, the Pakistan military (including ISI) and Pakistani politicians.
Here to help - maybe one day?
Once again China offers help to Afghanistan and Pakistan, with civil schemes. Note Kunar Province hydro-electric plant. Since previous schemes have been halted one wonders if this is rhetoric only.
Link:http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...LE1VA20150210?
Can China Assert Itself in Afghanistan?
An update on China's role by Raffaello Pantucci (who has affection for the region), which IMHO ends rather optimistically:
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China has set itself up to be a major player in Afghanistan’s future and expectations are being raised. It now needs to find ways of asserting itself both politically and economically to play the role that increasingly is being expected of it. Beijing may still shy from such ambitious aims, but at the same time, it is now too late to back away from them. China needs to find its feet and move forward in a more certain manner in Afghanistan.
Link:http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/can-c...n-afghanistan/
The waves four Mi-25 attack helicopters can make
Hat tip to WoTR for an article on:
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Several weeks ago, amid little fanfare, India and Afghanistan concluded an arms deal. This was no run-of-the-mill transaction: It was a significant weapons transfer — perhaps one of the most consequential in the South Asia region in several years, thanks to the precedent it sets and the considerable implications it may have for regional stability.
Link:http://warontherocks.com/2015/12/the...ver-heard-of/?
My old enemy is now my friend
Via SWJ from AFP (via Yahoo) citing Zamir Kabulov, head of the department at the Russian foreign ministry responsible for Afghanistan who is also a Kremlin special representative in the country, told Interfax news agency
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Taliban interests objectively coincide with ours...I have said before that we have communication channels with the Taliban to exchange information...Both the Taliban of Afghanistan and the Taliban of Pakistan have said that they don't recognise (IS leader Abu Bakr) Al-Baghdadi as a caliph, that they don't recognise ISIL..
Link:http://news.yahoo.com/russia-sees-in...181906159.html
Wrong strategy in the wrong place
Professor Paul Rogers asks "Will more the same, fewer in number work" or something similar and near the start:
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....the war in Afghanistan is evolving into a conflict even more intense than in recent years, one that will inevitably demand far more of Donald Trump’s attention than he would like.
Citing the latest SIGAR report:
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A dangerous and stubborn insurgency controls or exerts influence over areas holding about a third of the Afghan population. Heavy casualties and capability gaps limit the effectiveness of Afghan soldiers and police. Opium production stands at near record levels.
He ends with:
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After 15 years of failure, more troops will be seen as the answer, with little chance of any other approach being tried. That makes three regimes toppled in the War on Terror era (the Taliban, Saddam Hussein, and Gaddafi), and three countries wrecked – but still no fundamental reflection on a strategy that’s clearly failed.
Link:https://theconversation.com/deadly-kabul-bombing-heralds-a-new-western-surge-in-afghanistan-77041?
Now we have clarity from Pakistan's Army?
A curious commentary from a RUSI analyst, a Pakistani, that suggests a new firmness in the Pakistani Army's stance on Afghanistan under the new Chief of Staff's leadership:https://rusi.org/commentary/pakistan...on-fewer-words
Two passages:
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On the Afghan front, Bajwa’s argument seems to be that Pakistan has secured its own territory and it is not the Pakistani army’s job to secure Afghanistan, as this is up to NATO and the Afghan National Army. This may be debatable, but one conclusion is clear: Pakistan’s military leadership is no longer either apologetic or pretending to play along with any foreign narrative on Afghanistan.
(Later) ....in Afghanistan, Bajwa has brought more clarity
Really the Pakistan Army have pretended to play along with a foreign narrative? No, they have always followed their interests, even if that meant assisting killing NATO soldiers and enabling NATO to be in Afghanistan at the same time or with some temporary interruptions.
Badakhshan: here we come!
A short website report entitled:
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China Building Military Base on Afghan-Tajik Border (then adds) The plan, if it is realized, promises a deeper Chinese military involvement in Tajikistan, which is necessary as a supply corridor to Badakhshan.
Even more curious:
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some media have
reported that Chinese military vehicles were using Tajikistan territory to transit to Badakhshan for military patrols...Chinese patrols inside Afghanistan had ended in late 2016. It's not clear whether those patrols were ever restarted, but this base, if realized, would seem to portend much heavier traffic in the future
Link:http://www.eurasianet.org/node/86661
First time I've seen this website, so this helps:
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Based in New York, EurasiaNet.org is hosted by Columbia University’s Harriman Institute, one of the leading centers in North America of scholarship concerning Eurasia.
Link:http://www.eurasianet.org/node/14733
Why is China in Afghanistan
Mike Martin offers a short (2 mins) explanation for China's role in Afghanistan.
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxFQ...ature=youtu.be
Is Russia arming the Afghan Taliban?
A long BBC World Service article that poses this question: Is Russia arming the Afghan Taliban? Which concludes:
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Moscow's reappearance in Afghan affairs is largely designed to irritate the Americans.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-41842285
It builds on an interview of General John Nicholson in late March 2018 and I cite it in part:
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We see a narrative that's being used that grossly exaggerates the number of Isis [Islamic State group] fighters here. This narrative then is used as a justification for the Russians to legitimise the actions of the Taliban and provide some degree of support to the Taliban. We've had stories written by the Taliban that have appeared in the media about financial support provided by the enemy. We've had weapons brought to this headquarters and given to us by Afghan leaders and said, this was given by the Russians to the Taliban. We know that the Russians are involved.
(At the end) This activity really picked up in the last 18 to 24 months. Prior to that we had not seen this kind of destabilising activity by Russia here. When you look at the timing it roughly correlates to when things started to heat up in Syria. So it's interesting to note the timing of the whole thing
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-43500299
