Moderates fade away, extremists gain and Assad remains
A grim assessment by Shashank Joshi, of RUSI, the title says:
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The good guys have lost in Syria – only the bad guys are left fighting
Then in the text:
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In truth, moderate rebels are being obliterated as a force. Their best units have peeled away and their foreign support is dwindling to nothing.
Link:http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/sh...left-fighting/
The Islamic Front - Romeo, Romeo ....
The Obama administration, apparently realizing that its moderate Syrian allies were getting nowhere fast; e.g., per Robert Ford:
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Q: Moving to the situation on the ground inside Syria, in your assessment, how much territory does the Syrian regime continue to hold control over?
I have never seen a definitive number of how much of the Syrian geography is controlled by the regime and how much is controlled by the opposition. What I can tell you is that lines of control have only shifted a little bit week to week. The regime has made some advances outside of Aleppo, but the regime also lost a very big supply depot in Homs and they have also lost ground in Dera’a. And so this war continues without either side being able to deliver a decisive blow. ...
is flopping about, looking for a new dancing partner.
Take your pick from these weekend news article.
Reuters: Syrian Islamist rebels to meet U.S. officials: opposition sources (by Mariam Karouny and Dasha Afanasieva, BEIRUT/ISTANBUL Sat Dec 14, 2013):
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(Reuters) - Syrian rebel commanders from the Islamic Front which seized control of bases belonging to Western-backed rebels last week are due to hold talks with U.S. officials in Turkey in coming days, rebel and opposition sources said on Saturday.
The expected contacts between Washington and the radical fighters reflect the extent to which the Islamic Front alliance has eclipsed the more moderate Free Syrian Army brigades - which Western and Arab powers tried in vain to build into a force able to topple President Bashar al-Assad.
The talks could also decide the future direction of the Islamic Front, which is engaged in a standoff with yet more radical Sunni Muslim fighters from the al Qaeda-linked Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
A rebel fighter with the Islamic Front said he expected the talks in Turkey to discuss whether the United States would help arm the front and assign to it responsibility for maintaining order in the rebel-held areas of northern Syria.
He declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the talks, and gave no further details. Diplomatic sources in Turkey said that U.S. Syria envoy Robert Ford was expected in Istanbul soon but his schedule was not yet confirmed.
The Islamic Front, formed by the unification of six major Islamist groups last month, seized control a week ago of weapons stores nominally under the control of the Free Syrian Army's Supreme Military Command (SMC). ...
Please note that the Islamic Front is a coalition of Islamist groups.
CSM (via Gulf News): US mulls aiding Islamist groups - Islamists have zoomed past the moderate rebel forces in organisation and control of territory (by Howard la Franchi, Christian Science Monitor, December 14, 2013):
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Damascus: The gradual collapse of Syria’s moderate rebel forces is forcing the US to consider extending its support to the Islamist groups it has long rejected but which are steadily rising to become the Al Assad regime’s principal opponents.
The irony, as some of Syria’s forlorn moderate rebels are noting, is that the US may have unwittingly aided in the demise of moderate forces because it for so long held off extending lethal and nonlethal aid to them – out of fear that some of that aid might fall into the hands of Islamists.
Now it’s the Islamists who, without any US assistance, have zoomed past the moderate rebel forces in organisation, control of territory, and staying power.
...
... The US envoy to Syria, Robert Ford, met last month with leaders from the recently formed Islamic Front – a coalition of seven groups fighting for a strict Islamic state in Syria.
Ambassador Ford could continue those discussions in the coming days as part of a trip to London and Turkey to meet with Syria’s political opposition and its international supporters.
US officials and other members of the international Friends of Syria group have privately fretted for more than a year about the eclipse of the moderate rebels by Islamist factions, which include groups the US has designated as terrorist organisations.
The reversed fortunes of Syria’s rebel coalitions burst into the open last weekend when fighters from the Islamic Front overran the northern Syria base of the moderate, US-backed Supreme Military Council (SMC). The Islamists took control of the base’s warehouses of US-supplied nonlethal material, including pickup trucks, communications equipment, medicines, and thousands of ready-to-eat meals.
The US, joined by Britain, quickly suspended all nonlethal aid to the rebels. US officials insist the suspension is only temporary and could end soon, especially if the Islamic Front returns the seized material as the US is demanding.
But the episode showcases both the weak state of Syria’s moderate rebels – and the disarray in America’s Syria policy. ...
The Observer: Growing strength of Syria's Islamist groups undermines hopes of ousting Assad - The west is being forced to rethink its support for rebel alliance in civil war as forces linked to al-Qaida gain ground (Peter Beaumont, The Observer, 14 December 2013):
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The Bab al-Hawa crossing post sits under a low ridge on the Syrian-Turkish border, not far from the Turkish town of Reyhanli. There is a concrete canopy and a handful of buildings. It is important because of what lies not far away in the village of Babisqa – one of the main storage depots for the supreme military council of the Free Syrian Army including weapons and other equipment.
In the Syrian conflict, who controls crossings like Bab al-Hawa and depots like Babisqa is crucially important.
On the evening of 6 December, a series of events began, with ramifications threatening to be far-reaching. They point to a development many observers have been fearing: a dangerous new fracture opening within the fragmented ranks of Syria's opposition fighters, which threatens to pit the FSA against a powerful Islamist coalition. The ideological frontiers on the map of Syria's civil conflict are shifting.
Accounts are confused and contradictory. But according to one version, members of a powerful new alliance of Islamist groups – the Islamic Front, which includes among its seven core groups some which in the past have co-operated with the al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra – took control of the warehouses at gunpoint, claiming they were defending them from an attack, and later the Bab al-Hawa crossing.
Within days, the US and the UK announced they had "suspended" all deliveries of non-lethal materials to the supreme military council through Turkey, which has included sophisticated communications equipment. ...
Debka: US explores ties with Syrian Islamist rebels, possibly Assad too - for a lineup to fight al Qaeda (DEBKAfile Special Report December 15, 2013):
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The Obama administration is again doubling back on its Syrian war policy, this time engaging in a secret approach to the Islamic Front, the most powerful force now battling the Assad regime. Recently set up by six Muslim militias with 40-50,000 fighting men, the new front is led by Hassan Aboud Abu Abdullah al-Hamawi and his Ahrar al Sham militia. Debkafile’s counter-terrorism forces report that, although its Salafist members aspire to impose Sharia law on Syria, in common with Al Qaeda, they are against its methods of warfare.
On Dec. 11, fighters of the Islamic Front seized Free Syrian Army headquarters, the Syrian Military Council, and weapons warehouses, as well as the Bab al-Hawa crossing from northwestern Syria into Turkey. This was a devastating setback for FSA, once the leading rebel force against Bashar Assad, and virtually extinguished the group as an effective fighting force after its recent setbacks.
It was bad enough for its commander, Brig. Gen. Salim Idris, to flee to Qatar. Despite protestations to the contrary, he is unlikely to return to Syria in the hurry.
Announcing the cut-off of “non-lethal assistance to the opposition in northern Syria,” Washington more or less turned its back on the FSA and launched an approach to its vanquisher.
Robert Ford, former ambassador to Syria through whom the US has maintained contact with Syrian rebel militias, was dispatched to Turkey to start talks with the Islamist Front leader Al Hamawi. ...
The rest of the Debka report, though interesting, may or may not have credence.
IMO: US policy in the Middle East has been in disarray since this romantic 1945 event:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi..._on_quincy.jpg
because it has fluctuated with the fortunes of either the Saudi Lobby or the Israeli Lobby to purchase and/or intimidate the USG. Neither lobby resonates in America's Heartland (aka "flyover country"); and neither lobby cares - so long as it resonates in the Beltway and furthers the interests it represents.
So, if you really want the US to intervene in the Middle East (or anywhere else in the World), be careful what you wish for - it might not be what you expect.
In the meantime, I've a Bactrian camel I want to sell; a low maintenance beast with a pedigree (certificate on bond paper !) from a herd of President Karzai's brother. Any offers ?
Regards
Mike