Ukraine: non-military aspects (August 2014-December 2015)

Moderators Note

On reflection I have:

1. Closed the existing main Ukraine (catch all) thread (1991 replies and 99k views) and that on the shooting down of MH17 over the Ukraine
   
2. Create two threads for current matters
3. First the fighting and military aspects -
4. Secondly the wider non-military context (diplomacy, politicis, economics etc), so includes MH17 matters - this thread
5. The Russian Info Ops thread is now in the Europe arena (ends)

http://amsat-uk.org/2014/07/29/delfi...-over-ukraine/

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

At last count there are 16 different Russian media stories about the shot down and none have grabbed the global media longer than 2 minutes.

Now they are lancing faked satellite photos trying to still link Ukrainian Buk missiles to the shot down and they cannot even get the photos close to correct.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/07/3...ages-says-sbu/

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There appears to be a second mercenary Buk on the ground in eastern Ukraine---as a Ukrainian fighter mission claims yesterday to have detected and evaded a fired Buk missile.

Moderators Note

On reflection I have:

1. Closed the existing main Ukraine (catch all) thread (1991 replies and 99k views) and that on the shooting down of MH17 over the Ukraine
   
2. Create two threads for current matters
3. First the fighting and military aspects -
4. Secondly the wider non-military context (diplomacy, politicis, economics etc), so includes MH17 matters - this thread
5. The Russian Info Ops thread is now in the Europe arena (ends)

Some statistics concerning regionalism and decentralisation before and and after the start of war.

http://mercury.ethz.ch/serviceengine...+in+Ukrain.pdf

Just caught part of the BBC Radio Four programme 'Crossing Continents' and this report by Lucy Ash 'Crimea: Paradise Regained'. It will be a podcast soon and I assume available beyond the UK:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04b22h3

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Europe and the US have imposed the toughest sanctions on Russia since the Cold War amid anger over the Kremlin's support for east Ukrainian separatists who stand accused of shooting down a Malaysia Airlines passenger jet. But the crisis began further south with Russia's annexation of Crimea in March.


Crimea's idyllic scenery drew Soviet visitors for years - some called it the Communist Cote d'Azur. The collapse of communism did little to dent Russia's appetite for their bit of paradise on the Black Sea along with the thousands of Ukrainian holidaymakers who flocked there each year. But now the Ukrainians are staying away and the Russian government is trying to fill the gap by urging employers in Russia to send staff on subsidised breaks in Crimea. A holiday in the newly annexed peninsula has become every Russian's patriotic duty. For Crossing Continents, Lucy Ash visits Crimean tourist resorts and explores the motives behind Vladimir Putin's fateful decision to reclaim Russia's paradise.

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I am sure her last few seconds referred to a plan / suggestion that Sevastapol revert to being a 'closed city' to Westerners and Russians.

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Originally Posted by AmericanPride

At this point, this is probably the most realistic outcome with the highest possibility of restoring stability in the region. Kiev needs to find a way to reintegrate the opposition into the political process - that will isolate the radicals and undermine Russian justifications for intervention. What does Ukraine's political landscape look like if it exterminates the armed opposition?

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It won't happen. Separatists are quite well dehumanized in Ukrainian political agenda and there won't be any agreements with non-humans.

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Originally Posted by mirhond

It won't happen. Separatists are quite well dehumanized in Ukrainian political agenda and there won't be any agreements with non-humans.

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Mirhond, postings by people like Dayhuan and American Pride are annoying but do serve a purpose in that they express just how dangerously naive the Amercan civilian thought process is which (tragically) has dominance in the US Whitehouse and Department of State.

Some ideas on inducing cooperation from Russia:

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Originally Posted by A Grand Bargain with Russia

The first and most radical option would be to dissolve NATO -- a possibility that is overdue for serious consideration -- and replace it with a new security bloc. The new group, which might be called the Global Northern Alliance, would bring together all current NATO states, Russia and the members of its Collective Security Treaty Organization, and Japan and South Korea. The bloc would be led by today’s three major military powers: the United States, Russia, and the European Union. Its main task would be to preserve and reinforce peace on the European continent and in the northern hemisphere more broadly.

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Originally Posted by A Grand Bargain with Russia

A second, and no less audacious, initiative would be the launch of a new Marshall Plan for countries of the former USSR. The assistance would go not just to Ukraine -- the post-Soviet state most on Western policymakers’ minds -- but also to other countries in the region.

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Originally Posted by A Grand Bargain with Russia

Third, if Russia begins to abandon its aggressive policies, the West could start to improve relations with the most critical players of all: Russian citizens and companies. This could include reducing the existing visa barriers between Russia and the EU and, in the longer term, lessening the restrictions on working abroad. The United States and Europe should also initiate talks on liberalizing trade with Russia and post-Soviet countries and banning discrimination against investors from the region. By becoming a more fully integrated member of the Western system, Russia would be less able to threaten the West through energy disturbances and expansionist behavior. This basic truth seemed evident a quarter-century ago, during Gorbachev’s perestroika, but has now become forgotten -- and quite unfairly so.

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Originally Posted by A Grand Bargain with Russia

Fourth, taking into account the many dangerous fault lines in Europe, the West could radically shift the focus of its cooperation with Russia to the Pacific.

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Originally Posted by JMA

Mirhond, postings by people like Dayhuan and American Pride are annoying but do serve a purpose in that they express just how dangerously naive the Amercan civilian thought process is which (tragically) has dominance in the US Whitehouse and Department of State.

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May be I completely misunderstood your post, but is sounds to me like you feel pity that Dayuhan and American Pride aren't in touch with Ukrainian political agenda and don't dehumanize separatists enough.
ps. I enjoy their posts, because they are few non-biased users here.

Hey Mirhond, I got a question. When the Russian troops roll west over the border, are you going to be with them or are you going to be staying in Moscow?

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Originally Posted by mirhond

May be I completely misunderstood your post, but is sounds to me like you feel pity that Dayuhan and American Pride aren't in touch with Ukrainian political agenda and don't dehumanize separatists enough.
ps. I enjoy their posts, because they are few non-biased users here.

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you have got to be what none biased?

come on comrade---you never did answer where those 36 bodies that your "zealous Christians" in their burial rituals took as well as their credit cards, cash, jewelry, and smart phones.

you claimed they went to Donetsk but my friend they never did not make it there.

you are not what.....biased?

Jamestown has article about Fsb guy Girkin/Stelkov's last employer Malofeeyev.

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Conclusion

From a purely religious perspective, the militants’ sectarianism has little in common with true Orthodox Christianity. But there is a distinct danger that the Russian Orthodox Church and even Russian authorities may be increasingly swayed by its radical nationalist ideology, the consequences of which could lead to further chaos and unrest along Russia’s borders. Consequently, proponents of this dangerous ideology such as Konstantin Malofeev—who have deep pockets and whom the Kremlin can, seemingly, count on to finance artificial militant rebellions abroad—pose a specific threat to Western policies and should not be ignored.

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http://www.jamestown.org/programs/ed...5#.U-Uod2IaySM

This blog has translated interesting article.

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Friday, August 8, 2014

Window on Eurasia: Patriarch Kirill, FSB Backing Different Candidates in Ukrainian Church Election

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http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com...irill-fsb.html

Speaker of DPR parliament is communist, who replaced Malofeeyevs another friend Pushilin.

http://inforesist.org/kommunisty-vzyali-vlast-v-dnr/

Orthodox church, communists, FSB, KGB, GRU etc. typical Russia's ideological mix.

Ps mirhond, have you changed your avatar already third time in a month? Do you need professional stylist :)

Cited in part:

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Originally Posted by AmericanPride

Some ideas on inducing cooperation from Russia: dissolve NATO, a new Marshall Plan for countries of the former USSR, the most critical players of all: Russian citizens and companies. This could include reducing the existing visa barriers between Russia and the EU and, in the longer term, lessening the restrictions on working abroad..the West could radically shift the focus of its cooperation with Russia to the Pacific.

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This is neither a bargain for the West's relations with Russia or the electorates in the West. It is crazy.

Many here were critics of NATO long before the Crimea / Ukraine crisis. It makes no sense for NATO members. As for yet more money etc for the former USSR, I suspect that includes Russia itself. Do the authors not realise the electorate let alone the bankers have a very different view?

Then there's their view that the most critical players include Russian citizens. Really? We as outsiders might wish Russian citizens played a greater role in decision-making, currently they do not and may in fact support Putin's adventures. Enable Russians to work abroad. OK, in the UK and I expect other EU countries that is simply stupid - when unemployment remains a national problem. Have they heard of UKIP?

Finally what does Russia have to offer in the Pacific? Far less than it can offer in Europe and the Middle East.

Good post... mirhond could not have done better himself ;)

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Originally Posted by AmericanPride

Some ideas on inducing cooperation from Russia:

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Originally Posted by AmericanPride

Some ideas on inducing cooperation from Russia:

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Allow me to express this idea in fewer words. Disarm and give them lots of money.

Gee. Why didn't I think of that? It can't miss.

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Originally Posted by JMA

Mirhond, postings by people like Dayhuan and American Pride are annoying but do serve a purpose in that they express just how dangerously naive the Amercan civilian thought process is which (tragically) has dominance in the US Whitehouse and Department of State.

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So what do you think should be done? Or is the prospect of actually trying to come up with a suggested course of action too annoying to contemplate?

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Originally Posted by davidbfpo

Many here were critics of NATO long before the Crimea / Ukraine crisis. It makes no sense for NATO members. As for yet more money etc for the former USSR, I suspect that includes Russia itself. Do the authors not realise the electorate let alone the bankers have a very different view?

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I disagree with the article's proposal about NATO also. But I do think NATO can serve as the foundation of a larger security structure beyond the north Atlantic region. The international system has two pillars - one political (the U.N.) and one security (NATO). Occasionally they work in tandem (i.e. Afghanistan) but not always. I think building more security linkages would compel states to resolve issues diplomatically and would also help relieve some of the burden on the U.S. defense apparatus.

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Then there's their view that the most critical players include Russian citizens. Really? We as outsiders might wish Russian citizens played a greater role in decision-making, currently they do not and may in fact support Putin's adventures. Enable Russians to work abroad. OK, in the UK and I expect other EU countries that is simply stupid - when unemployment remains a national problem. Have they heard of UKIP?

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I'm not as familiar with the sub-national level of Russian politics as I'd like to be but it seems like to me the alliances with oligarchs, the emphasis on state information campaigns, and the manipulation of political parties suggest the presence to some extent of a sensitivity towards popular sentiment. I don't see a very strong connection to the formulation of Russian foreign policy (which, by the way, according to recent research is true of the U.S. as well).

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Finally what does Russia have to offer in the Pacific? Far less than it can offer in Europe and the Middle East.

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This is true but is that because Russia is unable to or because Russia has been unwilling to? I think about the effect the USSR had on the Pacific (communist China, North Korea, Vietnam) etc...

Professor John Schindler has a long column 'Putin’s War and the Hitler Thing' and he ends with:

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What will happen in Ukraine will become clear soon. In the meantime, it is wise to choose proper historical analogies that add to understanding of complex problems, rather than confusing issues further. Above all, it is imperative that educated Westerners, particularly the postmodern denizens of the WEIRD contingent, understand that things they cannot contemplate because they find them unpalatable or even ridiculous may seem quite plausible to others. What you find utterly unthinkable may prove quite thinkable, even reasonable, to your enemies.

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Link:http://20committee.com/2014/08/09/pu...-hitler-thing/

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По последним данным российских властей, всего с начала конфликта вынужденно покинули территорию Украины и находятся на территории РФ более 730 тысяч граждан. Ранее сообщалось, что более 48 тысяч из них оформляют документы на получение убежища.

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According to Russian authorities data, there are 730,000 Ukrainian refugees in Russia, over 48,000 officially seek refuge.

http://ria.ru/society/20140808/1019248416.html

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Originally Posted by mirhond

According to Russian authorities data, there are 730,000 Ukrainian refugees in Russia, over 48,000 officially seek refuge.

http://ria.ru/society/20140808/1019248416.html

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mirhond who admitted he is residing and blogging from Russia----

you have got to be kidding using numbers from RIA---the mouth piece for the Communist Party and Putin--you really want us to believe the numbers.

you should actually contact the UNHRC and ask for their numbers which are totally different than your numbers---was it not also the UNHR that indicated that the Russian charges of human rights violations inside eastern Ukraine did not quite match those complaints being expounded by both RIA/Interfax and your boss Putin?

come on comrade at least get your source of numbers correct---but wait you cannot as you sit in Moscow working for the FSB and they will not allow to write anything else---right mirhond?