Lies, Damn Lies and Counterinsurgency-AFJ

Not sure if anyone had seen this. Written by a very good friend of mine that I served with in Iraq and Fort Campbell.

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Lies, damned lies and counterinsurgency
Not all insurgencies have been protracted affairs
BY CAPT. ROBERT M. CHAMBERLAIN

It has become a matter of conventional wisdom that insurgencies last an average of 10 years and that the insurgents win about 40 percent of the time. These statistics have appeared in USA Today, PBS, Pentagon media briefings and on National Public Radio. The insight these numbers are meant to convey is that counterinsurgencies are inherently long and difficult struggles against wily and resilient foes, so it is unrealistic to expect rapid, quantifiable progress in the near term. Fortunately, these statistics are misleading and the associated analysis is wrong.

The source of this mistaken conventional wisdom is the prestigious Dupuy Institute, which has been providing rigorous quantitative analysis to the military for more than 40 years. In May 2007, Dupuy researchers published the preliminary results of a study in which they examined 63 modern insurgencies for a variety of factors, including the longevity and the success rate of the conflicts. Given their analytical talent and track record of precision, their statistical computations are undoubtedly accurate. The problem, however, isn’t with their math; it’s with the initial selection of cases.

According to the FM 3-24 Counterinsurgency doctrine manual, an insurgency is “an organized movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through the use of subversion and armed conflict.” In the past 100 years, there have been considerably more than 63 movements that would fit that definition, so to create a manageable data set, only the most violent and intense conflicts are likely to be included. However, because casualty counts are often a function of time, this method naturally trends toward long wars and excludes cases in which government forces crushed the nascent insurgency before it even got off the ground.

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http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2008/05/3434645

Interesting piece. I think he makes a bit of an error in comparing insurgencies in Latin America with those in Africa, as the culture and history in both regions are very different...and those are factors that contribute to the longevity (or lack thereof) of any insurgency.

Still, he's right to posit that we shouldn't try to "one size fits all" our approach to insurgencies.

Steve is also correct that Africa and Central / South America are very different but the basic point that it's totally incorrect that all insurgencies must be 'long' and the insurgents 'win' about 40% is quite accurate.

However, while those two continents produced many of the short efforts resulting in government success, those that were longer lasting share a trait with the other area 'long' wars. Most took place on the fault line that resulted from the former Colonial powers drawing of 'logical' lines on a map -- note that all these were encouraged and aided by the NKVD / MVD/ KGB from the late 1920s forward.

It also bears noting that that is true of Iraq -- it is NOT true of Afghanistan; the form and character of that one are totally unique. Steve and CPT Chamberlain are also correct with this: One size does not fit all

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However, while those two continents produced many of the short efforts resulting in government success, those that were longer lasting share a trait with the other area 'long' wars. Most took place on the fault line that resulted from the former Colonial powers drawing of 'logical' lines on a map -- note that all these were encouraged and aided by the NKVD / MVD/ KGB from the late 1920s forward.

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True and even some government successes were but temporary victories in the case of Africa after the Cold War. Old foes from the Congo rebelions in the 1960s who were defeated by government and foreign forces joined with the Rwandas in 1996. the Rwandan civil war lasted 40 years in various forms. as for Uganda, Obote was run out twice--once by Idi Amin and later by Museveni who helped get rid of Amin. These see saw struggles took decades; and they are still not over.

Tom

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Originally Posted by Tom Odom

These see saw struggles took decades; and they are still not over.

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in Ekatetineburg chortling as they watch BBC or CNN World Service. They did their job well -- and we're still trying to sort it out... :(