France's Urban Insurgency ?
Any comment or analysis of the ongoing riots in France ?
I see ( at leastgiven MSM reports) an insurgent operation there remarkably like the intifada launched after Sharon visited the Temple Mount.
French citizens are now demanding the army be called out and are even raising the idea of militias to counteract the gangs of rioters/arsonists
Interesting to say the least - re: France
While not on our (U.S.) radar screen - i.e. U.S. intervention, the French Muslim riots may well be a harbinger of the future "internal small war" - at this time too much a political hot potato to even mention in official circles and mainstream media.
Unlike past small wars with an adversary confined to particular countries we are now facing a threat that has made inroads across the globe. Nothing new here – except that now many countries who felt insulated from being on the receiving-end of a 9-11-like attack or otherwise attacked by Islamist extremism now have to rethink their over-tolerant policies.
Simply being against the war in Iraq offers no safety-net and many western countries are waking up to the fact that simply being western is a “good enough” reason for being targeted. Go figure…
France's long term problems
Folks,
France's current problems stem from the end of its colonial empire, especially the loss of Algeria which Frenchmen of the day considered to be an extension of European France rather than a mere colony. France ruled its colonies by making the locals nominal French citizens, especially the upper classes. Britain in contrast used indirect rule as much as possible without the fiction of handing out British passports. The exception to that was in the loss of India when Britain did extend citizenship to "Indians" (Indians and Pakistanis) who wanted to leave.
In France's case and under French method, it became very easy to get that French passport if things were not going well in one's native country (colony). In graduate school at the Naval Postgraduate School in 1981, we had to read Franz Fanon's book, Wretched of the Earth[ viewed as something as a fundamental platform for anti-colonial wars. Fanon was one of those upper strata Algerians who was nominally French and who then found himself excluded from both "real" Algerians and "real" Frenchmen. His book is not an easy read because it is an emotional cry, not a logical discussion.
In my 15 years as a FAO, it was quite common to meet Africans who had one foot in Africa and one foot in France. The same is true in North Africa for Tunisians, Algerians, Moroccans, etc. As the decades have passed, the numbers of such quasi immigrants have steadily increased. They never truly integrate into France's social structure and France has allowed that to continue. Right wing politics in France have largely been driven by this alien body; in 1988 during the French elections for President, I was on OP duty with a number of French soldiers in Sinai. Discussions on the election were hot and heavy and the right wing candidate promised Draconian measures if he were elected. He was not. But the French senior officer on duty actually got on the UN radio network and put out a net call to all French observers bemoaning the defeat. Think about that one...
Since then French policy has been accomodation, wise in some ways and foolish in others. France has been sitting on a tinder box of discontent among the immigrants and among those who would support a large scale crackdown. The rise in tensions ampong the Muslim population and the GWOT seem to have acted as the necessary spark.
Other countries in Europe (and the US!) have similar issues. Belgium is an extension of the Congo, Rwanda, and other francophone Africa. Germany has long had a large Turk population. The US has its own illegal immigrant crisis.
The real challenge for France is going to be containing the current violence without pouring gasoline on the fire. I have read reports suggesting premeditated organization to the violence. Certainly that is possible if not absolutely probable. This has been brewing for some time. But I would also say that you should not underestimate the capacity for spontaneous violence in these populations. In Zaire, le pillage was an art form.
best
Tom
The Impending Collapse of Arab Civilization
Grand V sent this link along to a Sep. 2005 article in Proceedings - The Impending Collapse of Arab Civilization by Lieutenant Colonel James G. Lacey, U.S. Army Reserve. Excerpt follows:
"... A lot of the evidence that Huntington presents for his theory of civilizational war makes more sense when viewed through the prism of the collapse of Arab civilization. Global maneuvering that Huntington interprets as preparations for a new round of world conflict are in reality the spontaneous adjustments that other societies are making in reaction to the collapse of a neighboring civilization. By accepting that we are facing the collapse of Arab civilization we can, for the first time, create a grand strategic concept for success. We no longer have to engage in a war against terrorism, which is a method of fighting and not an enemy. Additionally, we now have a strategic explanation for what is going on that does not make Islam the culprit. Hence we do not have to fight a religious war to win."
"The grand strategic concept that provides the best chance of success is the one that served us so well in the Cold War—containment. No matter what else we do we must position ourselves to contain the effects of the complete collapse of Arab civilization. Already 10 percent of the French population is from Muslim North Africa. Europe's ability to assimilate a larger flood of economic refugees is questionable. And mass migration is just one effect a total collapse will have. Containment will mean adopting and maintaining difficult policy choices..."
More on LTC Lacey's "The Impending Collapse..."
That is an excellent article, an interesting viewpoint, and correctly challenges a few sacred cows that have been left un-BBQ'd for too long. However, I do find it exceptionally difficult to have it both ways, as it were -- a very convincing argument for containment (Tom Odom's points well taken, too) but with the ju-jitsu of "Reverse the tide when and where we can" thrown in for good moral measure at the end.
Benevolent interdiction? The political science and international relations theorists can have a good time slotting that one in to the continuum. I have some concern that it would undermine the strategy that is advocated.
Strategic doctrine: Integration?
A related op-ed in today's NYT by Richard Haass entitled "is there a Doctrine in the house?" is worth reading. http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/08/op...html?th&emc=th
Best
Tom
Terms & Definitions Disconnect
ALCON,
Does anyone agree that there is a distinct disconnect between how U.S. military doctrine defines war and how our advesaries define war?
Victory in Denying Us Decisive Victory
ALCON,
Thanks for the outstanding feedback! Currently I am working on a thesis that the "chaos" stategy of Jemaah Islamiyah in SE Asia is to achieve victory by denying us decisive victory. How? In my opinion, one of the more important lessons of Korea and Vietnam for potential U.S. adversaries is that the average American is not interested in fighting a war without a clear moral issue- a pure cause that will justify the bloodshed & destruction of major sustained combat operations that result in decisive victory, defeated and complient enemy, and a American interests clearly achieved.
JI is employing a strategy that leverages inherent instabilities of the SEA reagion to maintain a relatively high level of violence and social discord. When opportunities (such as the tsunami, Mollukus, the '98 financial crisis) to create an environment that is difficult for a U.S.-led coalition or UN to justify a prolonged intervention to restore stability. Just look at the restricitions and risk assessments that occured in just sending the hospital ship and medical aid. As the credability and legitmacy of governments erode, capital flight destroys the economy and countries collapse bring even more social upheaval and violent competition.
In a grand strategic sense, SEA is just as important if not more so to U.S. long-term interests as the Mid-East oil. More than 60% of maritime shipping passes trought the Straites of Mulacca; Korea & Japan get 80% of their oil through here; China's oil consuption needs are expected to increas 40% by 2015 and they need to secure this route as well; one-third of the world computers are maunufactered here and over half the worlds computer chips, the list goes on ad naseum.
A hostile entity (Islamic Caliphate) based in Indonesia could have serious consequesnces for U.S. long-term security interests and might even spark future Chinese intervention.