How “Operation Liza” failed (Russian op in Germany)

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debat...ainst-germany/

Russia having success in hybrid war against Germany

Quote:

---

Now, as the German chancellor flounders domestically because of her open-door refugee policy, she has made herself vulnerable to attack. “I’ve never seen so much glee from the Russians as during Germany’s refugee crisis,” said a diplomat in Berlin.

---

Later proven to be a false claim, but it still served it purpose to mobilize Russian immigrants in Germany, and the far right.

Quote:

---

Stoking outrage in Germany’s Russian-speaking community is not an end in itself, but a means to exploiting cracks in German society exposed by the refugee crisis. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who served as a KGB agent in Soviet-occupied East Germany and speaks fluent German, believes that Berlin and Moscow can form a strategic axis based on Russian natural resources and German technology. Merkel, in her insistence that Russia do more to bring peace to Ukraine, is getting in the way.

---

A fascinating report. I'd not spotted the original incident in Berlin, Cologne got the headlines:

Quote:

---

The failure of a recent Russian propaganda campaign in Germany tells us that Kremlin strategists know nothing about the country, nor its sizeable Russian-speaking population.

---

What was Operation Liza? Two passages give you a glimpse:

Quote:

---

Last month, the disappearance of a 13 year-old Russian girl in Berlin caused a series of scandals. When the girl, Liza, returned the day after her disappearance on 11 January, her family claimed that she had been abducted and raped by Arabs. This assertion led to demonstrations by Russian-speaking Germans, heightened interest in the story from Russian media and a verbal conflict between the German and Russian foreign ministries. Indeed, the active involvement of Kremlin media (and Russia's Channel One, in particular) in stirring up anti-migrant feeling among the German public has led to the incident being christened “Operation Liza”.

But believing in the success of this action only amplifies “Operation Liza” further: the story may have been a lie, but it demoralised the enemy and caused it palpable damage. There is no more truth in this claim than Russian television’s initial story of the abduction and rape of a “Russian German” girl in Berlin. From the very beginning, the police denied that Liza was abducted and raped. Later it came out that Liza was afraid to come home because of problems at school. She stayed at a friend's place.

---

As longtime readers will know I am interested in the "kith & kin" factor, when old and newly established communities are influenced by the 'old country'. The article has lots of information on the 'Russian Germans':

Quote:

---

...people from the former USSR are the largest diaspora in Germany today, it is one that exerts its influence on both public life and election results.

(Later) "Repatriates” account for around five percent of the German electorate, making them a significant voter group. Most of their votes have traditionally gone to the CDU, and the loss of this constituency to other parties may affect the political balance of power.

---

Link:https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-rus...n-liza-failed?

The "kith & kin" thread:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=8829

The basic approach to use Russian emigrants in Germany to create friction in Germany is per se sound, the reaction of some of the Russian Germans proved that.

However, it was a real screw-up to let the Russian foreign minister give interviews in this case before the preliminary investigations of the German police had been finished.

As Russia wants the reduction of sanctions I bet this was countreproductive.

The for me as son of a German police officer funny aspect of the affair is that after 1992 the Russians were in the same position as the Syrians now, they brought organize crime, sold drugs, increased the level of domestic violence etc.), now they feel threatened. :-)

Ulenspiegel, this is not screw-up, this is done by purpose. This game has a name. In Ukraine war thread I had interesting discussion with this forum's fallacy tester mirhond. Russian compatriots brought in from Latvia told lies about Ukrainian "crimes". Lavrov picked this up and repeated this lie like he did in Germany. Like you see under the link SVR officers seems to be involved.

http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...rov#post172151

Sounds familiar?

http://jmw.typepad.com/files/budenz-...ity-groups.pdf

I would argue it has been actually quite successful........check events in Bautzen yesterday driven by the AfD a right wing populist grouping that today a German main political type stated it should be monitored by the German version of MI5........as it is now a potential threat to the German Constitution.

Kings War Studies blog 'Strife' has a German @ ICSR, Dr. Daniel H. Heinke, adding his viewpoint and he concludes:

Quote:

---

The general population and the media, on the other hand, were preoccupied with concerns regarding Islamist terrorism, the increasing numbers of refugees, and the ominous rise of right-wing extremism....This changed within a week. Perhaps Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov acted prematurely. Perhaps he miscalculated the timing of his offensive, or overestimated the resentment against refugees among the German population. Either way, his move made clear that Russia is operating within a strategy of hybrid warfare – and that the campaign of such a war is also directed against Germany. With a new awareness among German media of Russian tactics, however, the odds of success may have shifted.

---

Link:https://strifeblog.org/2016/02/22/ru...ainst-germany/

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by davidbfpo

Kings War Studies blog 'Strife' has a German @ ICSR, Dr. Daniel H. Heinke, adding his viewpoint and he concludes:
Link:https://strifeblog.org/2016/02/22/ru...ainst-germany/

---

Here is the interesting thing..have a close tie into the Russian passport holder community that is very active in Berlin.....many well educated and speak English..BUT literally believe anything stated in Moscow and follow closely Russian media....and this group is growing in Berlin and other German cities...

And Ruptely the Russian owned media outlet that holds some of the largest news videos and photos is based here in Berlin and is massively growing......and is part and parcel of the Russian info war media front.....

And alot of German news media outlets still get their information wrong a number of times and need nudging from German social media to correct it....even BILD tangles with them when they get the Russian "narratives" wrong.......

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kaur

Ulenspiegel, this is not screw-up, this is done by purpose. This game has a name. In Ukraine war thread I had interesting discussion with this forum's fallacy tester mirhond. Russian compatriots brought in from Latvia told lies about Ukrainian "crimes". Lavrov picked this up and repeated this lie like he did in Germany. Like you see under the link SVR officers seems to be involved.

http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...rov#post172151

Sounds familiar?

http://jmw.typepad.com/files/budenz-...ity-groups.pdf

---

In case of Germany it was a screw up, sorry. The result would have been good if Putin had waited until the crime was confirmed. So he looked incompetend.

We have only a few million Russians in Germany, only a small part of them shows promising potential for such stunts, the ability of a economic powerhouse like Germany to fight back in an unsymmetric way is there and Merkel is not the forgiving type.

BTW: The attempts of Moscow to influence Russion emigrants in Germany is nothing new.

Russian info warfare directed against Germany...hard at work......
Hoax heavily circulating in #German social media showing a 'free cellphone' coupon for refugees, with 200€.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ulenspiegel

In case of Germany it was a screw up, sorry. The result would have been good if Putin had waited until the crime was confirmed. So he looked incompetend.

We have only a few million Russians in Germany, only a small part of them shows promising potential for such stunts, the ability of a economic powerhouse like Germany to fight back in an unsymmetric way is there and Merkel is not the forgiving type.

BTW: The attempts of Moscow to influence Russion emigrants in Germany is nothing new.

---

"Russian television...tells everything truthfully." How Russian-Germans see the Liza case, after its debunking: http://www.rferl.org/media/video/ger.../27569259.html …

for Ulenspiegel.

Despite His Offensive Moves, Putin is Now Playing Defense in Europe, Oreshkin Says

Quote:

---

“Hungary is hardly the most powerful member of the European Union, the party of Marin Le Pen is hardly the most influential political force in France, and Giulietto Chiesa is hardly the most respected journalist and politician in Italy,” Oreshkin writes. But Moscow now “doesn’t have any other” allies.

And second, there is a sense that even reaching out to these people is “not a counterattack but a purely defensive” move. It is clearly “an effort to disrupt the unity of the European Union from within, to find some weak link.” But the best Putin can hope for is to “slow the formation” of an anti-Moscow “political front.” He is not in a position to reverse it.

“This is a defensive strategy which to a significant degree is asymmetrical,” Oreshkin continues. Western governments understand that Moscow can always find useful idiots to push its line in second-tier media outlets or second-tier states and thus dismiss them as unimportant. Putin consequently is taking these measures primarily for domestic consumption.

If you are a reader of only the Russian press, he continues, “you see [as a result of such campaigns] that the Dutch are unhappy with Ukraine, that Urban supports and approves of Russia … and that the entire European Union is collapsing because it cannot withstand the influx of migrants.”

The message this sends to Russians is this: “’we are having difficult times, but we are going from victory to victory” abroad.

---

Quote:

---

The overall trend is clear: “There will not be a total ignoring of Moscow, but the dominating trend will be its isolation.”

Because the EU operates on the basis of consensus, any one country can block the will of the majority, “but this is a game for marginal. The key players like Germany are hardly likely to go along.” And the Kremlin understands that it can’t buy countries like Germany, Great Britain of France “for Russian money.”

“In the best case, it is possible to buy Marin Le Pen, because she costs nine million euros, which Moscow has given her party as a loan.”

---

German @RT_Deutsch derivative of @RT_com with a ridiculous report about a #NATO convoy near #Dresden.
https://deutsch.rt.com/inland/36904-...militarkolone/ …