Iranian Infiltration of Iraq

What do you think of this guy’s analysis ? He was assigned to FMSO as recent as last year I think.

“In the past two years, Iran has sent more than 2,000 students and religious scholars to Najaf and Karbala. About one-third of them belong to Iranian intelligence. It has also assigned representatives in major Shia cities to provide financial support to Shia students and school instructors—$50 to $100 per student and $200 to $500 per instructor. Iran has sent several Iraqi political figures who were living in Iran back to Iraq to infiltrate and obtain sensitive political positions in the new Iraqi government. Iran considers these figures a solid foundation in the process of incorporating Iraq, without its northern area of Kurdistan, the moment the coalition forces start leaving Iraq.”13

In this video interview entitled Former Terrorist of the "Islamic Army" in Iraq Abu Azzam Al-Tamimi: An American Withdrawal Will Spell Disaster - Iranian Occupation More Dangerous, the former insurgent alleges that AQ is supported by Iran (!)

Interviewer: Is there significant Iranian intervention?
Abu 'Azzam Al-Tamimi: Of course.
Interviewer: In what way?
Abu 'Azzam Al-Tamimi: Iran intervenes in every single detail in Iraq.
Interviewer: Whom does it support?
Abu 'Azzam Al-Tamimi: Everybody – it works with the government, with the opponents of the government, with the opponents of the government's opponents, with Al-Qaeda, with the enemies of Al-Qaeda, with the militias, with the enemies of the militias... Iran spreads its investments everywhere – with the Shiites, the Sunnis, and the Kurds.
Interviewer: Al-Qaeda is a Sunni organization, which claims to be fighting those they call "the Rafidites" – how can it possibly cooperate with the Iranians?
Abu 'Azzam Al-Tamimi: Of course it can. How else can you explain the fact that a large number of Al-Qaeda's leaders live in Tehran? How else can you explain the fact that the Al-Qaeda organization targets all the countries in the world – from America to Indonesia, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, Algeria, and many others – and the only country absent from this list is Iran, even though it is located between Al-Qaeda's two jaws – Iraq and Afghanistan? Of course there is a very strong alliance between Al-Qaeda and Iran. There is a lot of evidence of this alliance.”
Transcript here.

My principal concern is with the religious lines of communication being utilized by the Iranian clericical heirarchy as a means of infiltrating Iraqi religion, politics, government, industry, constabulary, defense, etc...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MSG Proctor

What do you think of this guy’s analysis? He was assigned to FMSO as recent as last year I think.
. . .

My principal concern is with the religious lines of communication being utilized by the Iranian clericical heirarchy as a means of infiltrating Iraqi religion, politics, government, industry, constabulary, defense, etc...

---

The Ayatollahs have always been very political animals and would love nothing more than a a return of the Persian Empire -- that's a long held dream by many of the Iraniha. Thus your concern is more than pertinent and as I'm sure you know, a factor that will be difficult to redirect or channel.

The good news is that the Iraqis -- including many but far from all Shia -- hate the Persians almost as much as the Persians despise Arabs. Memories in the ME are long and the Sassanid Empire was and is not looked upon with great favor by most non-Persians. That long standing and well known in the ME fact of life as well as Iraqi xenophobia and secular inclination mitigate against any long term success by Iran, I believe.

Still, they'll continue to try and that in itself will cause problems.

Hello, Ken. I am familiar with the Persian vs Arab tension and its long standing tradition in the ME wars and empires. When I speak of religious channels however, I am chiefly referring to Mahdism, the belief in the return of the Hidden Imam, or Rightly Guided One which Shia from both sides of the border share. This belief is gaining momentum from what I can tell as there are many who believe their activities can hasten this eschatological event. I posted a lengthy quote about it here which is probably the wrong location for it.

Quote:

---

The main obstacle to the Mahdi's return is
explained by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad's
religious advisor in his own words:
In a 2006 speech marking the Mahdi’s birthday, Ayatollah
Mesbah-e Yazdi emphasized the importance of fighting
heresy, which, in his opinion, is delaying the coming of
the Mahdi:
“...Our noblest duty is to strive to reduce oppression, to be
more [stringent] in our implementation of Islamic law... and to weaken
the control of oppressive and tyrannical regimes over the oppressed.
These [actions] can [hasten] the return of the Hidden Imam...
[establish] the religious laws as the dominant [values] of society,
[ensure] that religious faith be taken as a consensus at conferences,
and limit the [control of the oppressors, i.e. of the Western powers]
over the oppressed throughout the world – both Muslim and non-Muslim.
[This is what we must do] in order to prepare the ground for the
Mahdi’s coming. Thus, the greatest obligation of those awaiting the
appearance of the Mahdi is fighting heresy and global arrogance.”

---

Link here.

I think the analysis is correct based on everything else I have studied. Michael Ledeen has successfully destroyed the notion that the Sunni - Shi'a divide affects Iran to any significant degree. Iran - her Ayatollahs, IRG, Quds - is a destabilizing effect on the entire region and the world. This is her history since the revolution, and nothing has changed. Further, talking with Iran has not changed her.

Right now, the biggest external influence on Iraq is being exerted by the United States, by means of a large military occupation force. The second biggest influence comes from Iran, mostly to the Shia and Kurdish elements of Iraq. The third comes from Saudi Arabia, to certain Sunni elements of Iraq.

Iran’s advantages are derived from shared cultural ties that go back thousands of years. Geographical proximity is also a benefit, as is its relatively large population and economy.

The legitimately elected Iraqi government is dominated by the Shia, a religion shared with its neighbor Iran. The elected government of Iraq has on many occasions declared that Iran is playing a constructive role in the affairs of Iraq. This was again proclaimed this week during President Ahmadinejad’s state visit to Baghdad, by both the Prime Minister and President of Iraq.

The Sunni insurgent that is quoted in this post has an obvious motive in making his claims of an Iran-al Qaida connection. In front of an American audience, he is attempting to inflame US opinion, in an effort to counter the adversaries of his Iraqi Sunnis, the Iraqi Shia and Iran. For it is the advantage the Iraqi Shia possess, with their relationship with Iran, which the Iraqi Sunnis find most troubling.

A very real source of Iran’s projected influence into Iraq comes in the form of Shia pilgrimages. During certain religious days, there are hundreds of thousands of Iranians making the pilgrimage into Iraq. Iranian engineers are currently hard at work in Iraq, building an airport near the holy cities, to handle an increase of pilgrims that will soon be in the millions.

So you see, the infiltration you refer to is not only natural and to be expected, it is also truly massive in scale. And it has the full blessing of the Iraqi government.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by MSG Proctor

... I am chiefly referring to Mahdism, the belief in the return of the Hidden Imam, or Rightly Guided One which Shia from both sides of the border share. This belief is gaining momentum from what I can tell as there are many who believe their activities can hasten this eschatological event.

---

the strong Shi' but even the Sunni's belief in Mahdism as a lever.

It has from some to great traction among all sects but while I'm sure Ahmadinejad is a true believer, I suspect it is being pushed as well by some who are less convinced for political gain. Way of the ME.

While I think their long term prognosis is not as good as they'd like, I have no question that in the near term it's going to be problematic. we live in interesting times... :wry:

Ken, I don't agree that Ahmedinejad needs to be pushed. Are you familiar with his prayer in the UN chamber? Hard to offer a prayer like that (for the coming of the Mahdi) under coercion.

The fever for the Mahdi is very intense. On January 30, 2007, a religious cult occupied battle positions opposite a mosque in the Islamic holy city of Najaf:

Quote:

---

NAJAF, Iraq (CNN) Grand Ayatollah Ali alSistani and other top Shiite religious figures were the apparent targets of a plot by a Muslim messianic cult intent on seizing the Shiite holy city of Najaf, Iraqi officials said.
The plot was thwarted by an intense battle that began early Sunday when Iraqi police and troops were dispatched to go after the insurgents, officials said.
U.S. forces took the lead Monday as the fighting wound down, an Iraqi police official said. The cult believed its plan to seize the Shiite holy city and assassinate top Shiite clerics would bring about the coming of the Mehdi, a Muslim messiah, the official said.
Col. Ali Jraiwi said the insurgents detained after Sunday's fighting told Najaf police they are members of a group called "Soldiers of Heaven" and are a mix of Sunni and Shiite Muslims. If the insurgents had carried out their plan to assassinate al Sistani, the effect on Iraq and the rest of the region would have been devastating, according to Vali Nasr, who studies Shiite influence in the Middle East.
His possible death "would really plunge Iraq and the possibly the rest of the region into a bloodbath," said Nasr, a professor at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School and author of "The Shia Revival," a recent book on the rise of the sect. "Ayatollah Sistani is the most revered and the most followed Shia spiritual leader," Nasr said.

---

Link to CNN Report
Link to video report

What I did say was; "while I'm sure Ahmadinejad is a true believer, I suspect it is being pushed as well by some who are less convinced for political gain. Way of the ME."(emphasis added / kw)

Yes, I saw the clip of the vision. Didn't see the aura... ;)

many levels. From smuggling arms across the border to influencing their government. This we know.

Most often, the Iraqi political connection to Iran comes in the form of personal travel to Tehran. For example, Hakim has made several trips to Iran, including a recent stay in a Tehran hospital for cancer treatment. While Sadr is currently residing in northern Tehran, commuting twice a week to Qom for seminary lessons. Both President Talibani and Prime Minister Maliki have conducted official state visits to Iran.

Given the circumstances, it can hardly be claimed that Iran is undermining the Iraqi government. Quite the opposite, it is the Iraqi government’s most ardent regional supporter.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ken White

What I did say was; "while I'm sure Ahmadinejad is a true believer, I suspect it is being pushed as well by some who are less convinced for political gain. Way of the ME."(emphasis added / kw)

Yes, I saw the clip of the vision. Didn't see the aura... ;)

---

Well, you know its invisible to non-believers. ;)

He is deadly serious about his devotion to the Imam al Mahdi. There are several "doomsday cults" populating in Iraq now with designs on bringing the Mahdi back. This report details the threat these groups pose under the guise of religion. It has been conjectured that Iran backs some of these cults.