Printable View
A new thread for updates and comments on the confrontation between Russia and the Ukraine primarily, which now appears to be Phase Three of a War.
The previous thread 'Ukraine: military aspects ((Aug '14 to mid-June '15))' is now closed and accessible via:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=21016
There are a number of other, smaller relevant threads which remain open. Either on the Ukraine or more Russian aspects, they are IIRC all in the Europe arena.
U.S., EU ready new sanctions to deter Putin (but stop because fight ended?) Check KIA/WIA
http://cnn.it/1HA4pRf
Pushilin says '#Ukraine on the brink of major war; situation could escalate in hours.' http://ria.ru/world/20150614/1069906480.html …Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Ceasefire?
One Ukrainian soldier killed, twenty-one wounded in Donbas in last day http://www.unian.info/war/1089153-on...-last-day.html … pic.twitter.com/QmenGf3mcf
Reports of more #Ukraine casualties from todays fighting coming in:
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/st...21115499933697 …
OSCE Recorded Disappearance of Militants' Heavy Weapons from Holding Areas http://ukraineunderattack.org/en/175...ing-areas.html … via @UaUnderAttack
Militants fire Grad systems on Luhansk villages on Saturday
http://www.unian.info/war/1089170-mi...-saturday.html … pic.twitter.com/08GhITGgb1
#Ukraine: UA troops shelled by heavy artillery. Broken agreement with #Minsk:http://bit.ly/1IUdg1M pic.twitter.com/W0RFUvNtG6
#Russia troops attacking directly into just 1 #Donbas town isn't an offensive; when they advance deep into #Ukraine, then it's an offensive.
AFP reporter injured in east Ukraine shelling - in English https://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp-report...154540885.html … via @yahoosg
Russian Nazi taken POW today @JulianRoepcke pic.twitter.com/fdhol3Husc
#LOLnews
The "DNR"'s Basurin says, Ukrainian forces broke the ceasefire 185 times in the last 24 hours.
Russian ground forces DPR tactical group "Somalia" (cmdr Tolstykh/"Givi") at Donetsk airport via GRU @EgoRZemtsoV pic.twitter.com/rDEV3hmLiM
Russian ground forces LPR unit "Ghost" (ex-Mozgovoy) in Russian-occupied Donbas via GRU @EgoRZemtsoV 14 Jun pic.twitter.com/OFVSEXG7Dt
Russian aircraft flies 500 feet above #NATO warships, officials (almost) 'very uncomfortable': http://edition.cnn.com/2015/06/13/po...sea/index.html … pic.twitter.com/UVjzd74HJl
19 Enemy Drones Recorded Over Day - Motuzyanyk http://ukraineunderattack.org/en/17531-19-en
Another strong evidence of #Russia special forces' presence in #Ukraine http://yle.fi/uutiset/8073906 (in Fin)
Leaders of LPR sets miners under pressure. Work without pay, or fighting in ranks of militia. http://nv.ua/ukraine/events/glavari-...aty-53651.html … pic.twitter.com/JIbpD1pwvN
Rodina and Novotoshkivske under shelling from Pervomaisk http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/14-june...rom-pervomaisk … via @GirkinGirkin
RUS ability to recruit volunteers to fight in Donbas is waning http://voc.tv/1QXepom pic.twitter.com/h83Aeo8CmI
With reservists losing interest in fighting #Ukraine, will #Russia send more regulars now?
Militants shelling of #Marinka continued throughout the day, injuring at least one civilian http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/14-june...ued-throughout …
2 Ukr troops KIA, 3 WIA in the Russian shelling of #Maryinka http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/14-june...an-shelling-of …
For two former Spetsnaz service members who Putin claimed were never on active duty and are POWs—this is a rather strange Russian action if they were in fact “former service members”???
Friend of Erofeev: "Relatives have been isolated from the whole world. We [their friends] have also been processed. I can't say more"
.@novaya_gazeta reporter unable to get in touch with relatives of captured Spetznaz; told by officers' friends: "They have been isolated"
Spetznaz Alexandrov: "I was able to chat with my wife on VK only,no one answers phones. Wife deleted her profile after a few chat attempts"
Spetznaz POW : "Ukrainian wounded soldiers are met back home as heroes. RU wounded soldiers are being hidden and disowned back home"
RU consul told Alexandrov "We can't get in touch with your wife or relatives, either". He laughs it off as a lie.
FaceBook has been attacked by Ukrainian bloggers for blocking hundreds of Ukrainian FB accounts when Russia trolls challenged those accounts for so called violence or offensive subject matter. FB response to the Ukrainian complaints was basically to fluff them off and conduct business as usual.
After sending FB numerous examples of FB actively doing the Russian info war troll work for them.
Seems now that FB might just have gotten the message that they are being played by Russian trolls.
The issue of account blocking is getting attention. #Facebook representative to visit #Ukraine http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/06/1...visit-ukraine/ … pic.twitter.com/OFT4RHZWII
Am bringing this forward into the thread as a perfect example of just how US Congressman seem at times to be either "bought" by lobbyists or simply know nothing about which they claim to stand for.
Jun 11 2015
U.S. House Passes 3 Amendments By Rep. Conyers To Defense Spending Bill To Protect Civilians From Dangers Of Arming and Training Foreign Forces
Quote:
WASHINGTON— Late yesterday evening, the U.S. House of Representatives considered H.R. 2685, the “Department of Defense Appropriations Act of 2015.” During consideration of the legislation, Congressman John Conyers, Jr. (D-Mich.) and Congressman Ted Yoho (R-Fla.) offered bipartisan amendments to block the training of the Ukrainian neo-Nazi paramilitary militia “Azov Battalion,” and to prevent the transfer of shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles—otherwise known as Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems (MANPADS)—to Iraq or Ukraine.
“If there’s one simple lesson we can take away from US involvement in conflicts overseas, it’s this: Beware of unintended consequences. As was made vividly clear with U.S. involvement in Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion decades ago, overzealous military assistance or the hyper-weaponization of conflicts can have destabilizing consequences and ultimately undercut our own national interests,” said Rep. John Conyers. “I am grateful that the House of Representatives unanimously passed my amendments last night to ensure that our military does not train members of the repulsive neo-Nazi Azov Battalion, along with my measures to keep the dangerous and easily trafficked MANPADs out of these unstable regions.”
Ukraine’s Azov Battalion is a 1,000-man volunteer militia of the Ukrainian National Guard that Foreign Policy Magazine has characterized as “openly neo-Nazi,” and “fascist.” Ukraine’s Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, who oversees Ukraine’s armed militias, announced that Azov troops would be among the first units to be trained by the Pentagon in Operation Fearless Guardian, prompting significant international concern.
Since their initial use on a battlefield in 1978, MANPAD attacks have resulted in nearly 1,000 civilian deaths.
Added Conyers, “Both U.S. and Israeli officials have feared that these weapons could be used by terrorists to bring down commercial jets. As the boundaries are increasingly blurred between insurgents fighting the Syrian government and those fighting the Iraqi government, providing additional arms could further destabilize the Middle East. The same can be said for Ukraine, where an anti-aircraft missile allegedly downed Flight MH17 last September, killing 298 civilians. The possibility that MANPADS—or any weapon—could fall into the hands of radical groups in Iraq, Syria, or Ukraine, would unquestionably increase the already-devastating human toll in both of these volatile regions.”
According to Reuters, The Azov battalion originated from a paramilitary national socialist group called "Patriot of Ukraine", which propagated slogans of white supremacy, racial purity, the need for authoritarian power and a centralized national economy. Azov’s controversial founder, Andriy Biletsky, organized the neo-Nazi group the Social-National Assembly (SNA) in 2008.
“The Azov men use the neo-Nazi Wolfsangel (Wolf’s Hook) symbol on their banner and members of the battalion are openly white supremacists, or anti-Semites,” wrote The Telegraph. Since Azov was enrolled as a regiment of Ukraine's National Guard in September and started receiving increased supplies of heavy arms, however, Biletsky has toned down his rhetoric, Reuters reported. According to the Washington Post, battalion members “could potentially strike pro-Russian targets on their own — or even turn on the [Ukrainian] government” if it pursues a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.
Seems the good Congressman "forgot" to ask the Ukrainians what they think of the "so called Nazi Regiment Azov" that he passed an amendment on in the Defense Spending Bill.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
RESIDENTS OF #MARIUPOL THANK THE #AZOV FOR LIBERATING THE CITY FROM THE #TERRORISTS OF #DNR https://www.facebook.com/uarighttraditions/posts/856890501064360[/url] … pic.twitter.com/VehTCZed4M
AND I am not so sure he fully understands that Russia has it's fill of Nazi's BUT I see he is not condemning Russian Nazi's--SO why the sudden deep interest in "so called Ukrainian Nazi's"?????
Captured by #Ukraine near #Mariupol, #Russian soldier with Nazi tattoo! The real fascists CAUGHT IN BIG LIE! pic.twitter.com/h7wVL4T4B6
Captured near #Shyrokyne , an RU soldier, nazi supporter and with his RU documents https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...type=1&theater … pic.twitter.com/HWvlaklSg7
Ukraine Right Sector captured another #Russia(n) soldier by call sign "June" in #Shyrokyne http://translate.googleusercontent.c...L3epIbba2m3QBQ … pic.twitter.com/kfkpVnO5Ms
And Basurin only says what Lentsov (Russian Army) wants him to say - for domestic consumption in Russia (They believe it!)
Hot spots of Ukraine Conflict as of June 12, 2015
http://en.hromadske.tv pic.twitter.com/2rhB7nwyfY
We agree. These are probing attacks and small unit tactics, not "offensive" tactics.
Several terrorists’ mortar shells hit five-storey apartment building in Triokhizbenka http://en.censor.net.ua/n339989
Numerous reports on social media that #Avdiyivka coke plant as been shelled again today. Augurs (more) trouble for Mariupol steel industry
Terrorists shelled Zolote and Marinka checkpoints http://en.censor.net.ua/n340006
Former US ambassador says Congress ready to send weapons to Ukraine - watch on - http://uatoday.tv http://uatoday.tv/politics/wroclaw-g...ne-438796.html …
Today 74 years ago #Soviets sent 65000 innocent people from #Baltics #Ukraine & #Moldova to #Siberia just like that. pic.twitter.com/F0CpLu2B8w
http://sputniknews.com/europe/201506...#ixzz3d3k1Mnwe
Donbass on Brink of Major War, Conflict May Escalate Any Time - DPR
11:47 14.06.2015(updated 11:51 14.06.2015)
Quote:
The conflict in southeastern Ukraine can escalate at any time, representative of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) at the Minsk peace talks Denis Pushilin said Sunday, pointing to a threat of a major war between Kiev forces and independence supporters amid a ceasefire enforced in the region.
DONETSK (Sputnik) – Kiev forces launched a military operation against independence supporters in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in April 2014. In February the two sides signed a ceasefire deal, but sporadic fighting has continued in Donbass despite the agreement.
"We are actually on the brink of a major war right now. Our conflict is not an internal Ukrainian one, it is fully in line with what is happening in Syria, Yemen, the uprising in Macedonia,… and could lead to very tragic consequences and, as a result, things can escalate in a matter of hours."
Pushilin told RIA Novosti that the stance of the international community on the Donbass conflict could determine whether fighting in Ukraine’s southeast would finally stop.
"Some major developing countries are giving a certain signal even through their neutrality and non-interference [in the conflict], that they are not supporting a military solution, they are for the continuation of the peace process. A singe decision that seemingly has no influence on anything could become critical and tip the scales one way or another."
Pushilin added that the conflict in Donbass could go on for dozens of years.
"It is not that we will be under fire for 10 years. What’s meant here is whether a full solution on political issues will be found in the conflict. This can take a very long time. This process is unpredictable," Pushilin explained.
According to Pushilin, the DPR is doing everything to bring an end to shelling in southeastern Ukraine.
"What is most important for us now is the issue of the ‘all-for-all’ [prisoner] exchange and the presence of some representatives from the other side who do not consider it necessary to intensify the prisoner exchange process in the agreed ‘all-for-all’ format, they are trying to find some other ways and are slowing down [the process] with their actions," Denis Pushilin told RIA Novosti.
The DPR negotiator stressed that the prisoner swaps was the main issue of discussion among members of the humanitarian subgroup of the Contact Group on Ukraine, which includes representatives from Kiev, the self-proclaimed people’s republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, Moscow and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
The lifting of the economic blockade imposed on Donbass by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko amid fighting between Kiev forces and local independence supporters will top the agenda at the upcoming talks in Minsk, the DPR envoy said.
"The lifting of the economic blockade," Pushilin said when asked about the key issues to be discussed during the talks.
An economic subgroup of the Contact Group on Ukraine is scheduled to meet in the Belarusian capital on June 23.
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order...#ixzz3d3n9VRsf
Putin is caught in a classic trap
Pavel K. Baev, The Brookings Institution
Jun. 8, 2015, 1:54 PM
Quote:
Putin is caught in a classic trap: Russia’s military advantage is fading and certain to decrease further.
Sergey Aleksashenko wants everyone to stop calling Russia weak. He contends that Russia is actually stronger than many people believe—to include U.S. President Barack Obama and British military historian Lawrence Freedman among other prominent voices. But Russia is weak and Russian President Vladimir Putin is even weaker.
Aleksashenko misunderstands Russian strength because he makes three critical errors. First, he assumes that strength and weakness are static and so fails to look at trends.
Second, by focusing on the weakest of Russia’s neighbors, he fails to notice that most Eastern European states are not intimidated by Russia. Finally, he wrongly believes that Russia’s strengths can be effectively used by Putin to maintain his grip on power.
First, strength and weakness are dynamic—that is, they change over time. In spite of Russia’s current displays of military strength in Ukraine, the former superpower is steadily and irreversibly weakening. As Aleksashenko knows—better than most officials in Moscow, in fact—Russia’s current economic crisis cannot be willed into recovery, and the economy is set to break through one false bottom after another.
What is less obvious for many Russia-watchers is that the military strength demonstrated so pompously on the Red Square during the May 9 Victory Day parade is also in decline. In Ukraine, the lack of any meaningful political or strategic Russian goals erodes the morale of the troops who are clandestinely deployed there. Nervous about the domestic political consequences of growing casualties, Putin has classified information about warzone deaths as a state secret.
The costs of the war are mounting, and over-spending in the Armaments 2020 priority procurement program is yet another item in the list of embarrassing fiscal setbacks. It is clear to serious Russian economists that military expenditures have been out of control for the last four quarters at least. Such spending cannot be sustained indefinitely, and deep cuts in the defense budget are certain this year.
Second, Alakshashenko’s description of Russian intimidation of its neighbors misses that many of Russia’s neighbors do not find it fearsome. While Georgia sees the need to tread carefully and avoid confrontation (even when signing an association agreement with the EU), Estonia and Latvia have turned their exposure to Russian pressure into a strategic advantage, requesting and receiving substantial support from NATO.
Moscow continues its military provocations in the Baltic theater, but it realizes that the military balance there is ultimately not in its favor. In the Arctic, Finland has joined the international Arctic Challenge 2015 exercise, which makes use of the Rovaniemi air base; Finland is apparently unperturbed by the fact that Russia’s newly-formed Arctic brigade is deployed just 30 miles across the border from this city.
It is prudent of NATO to be vigilant along its northern flank, but Russia has little or no capacity for simultaneously waging two “hybrid wars.” Back in 1940, Stalin amassed some 600,000 troops for the swift occupation of three defenseless Baltic states; now, Putin can deploy only about 50,000 troops for the (very probable) upcoming offensive in Donbass.
Finally, even the strengths that Russia genuinely possesses do not necessarily strengthen President Vladimir Putin’s grasp on power. The example of Russian gas exports to Europe is a case in point. As Aleksashenko rightly points out, Russia has leverage in some ways.
Russian gas exports to Europe, for instance, are essential for the economies of both, whatever proposals for alternative “green” sources the EU energy strategy entertains. This is a main source of Russia’s economic and political strength. (Though, even here, the opportunities for converting these exports into an instrument of security policy are curtailed by the joint stance of the consumers led by Germany.)
How long before all DPR/LPR units are "federalized" into Armed Forces of the Russian Federation? 11 Jun pic.twitter.com/6PX1LfZUsg
Sources and full size photos:
https://vk.com/dnrarmy?z=photo-93369...-51146063_3828 …
https://vk.com/albums-93369497
Some still call them "militants" or "rebels" or "separatists". They are DPR units of the Russian Army pic.twitter.com/JgbwOYba2A
Russoterrorist units try to break UKROP position in #Shyroyine south of main road Novoazovsk - Mariopol
In #Pisky near #Donetsk Airport (remains)a bomb went of killing 2 #Ukraine soldiers injuring 3 http://translate.googleusercontent.c...pRlLqsaH1YFA1Q … pic.twitter.com/XpfIN9zjGX
VIDEO: Ukraine - train with RUS 203-mm self-propelled guns 2S7 "Pion"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTRj0oGeoQs&sns=tw … pic.twitter.com/KGwAEU508r
"No one in western military has expereinced what Ukraine now has" - says Kremenetsky of @DefenceU pic.twitter.com/3kzsjM6UIeQuote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
This is exactly what he is talking about-----
#News
#Shyrokyne was under Russian artillery from 16:10-17:35. 122 and 152 mm.
Ukrainian forces were NOT allowed to return fire.
Z. Shkyryak
Anyone with Q's about the why/how of Russian Army's relationship with DPR/LPR units, Google > roman auxiliaries < pic.twitter.com/qfoZIa0hngQuote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Russoterrorists 'dnr' acquire new weapons from Kremlin and a brand new designation
"Republican Guards" #PutinAtWar pic.twitter.com/jSe5auv2w2
16 May, DPR decreed all militia units to be "armed forces" based on Russian Federation model http://rg-dnr.info/page/parlament-dn...orujennyih-sil … https://twitter.com/ukrainik/statu
NIGHT VIDEO Massive attack #Marinka last night by attacking #Putin forces on #Ukraine troops https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmPZZ031Mv4 … pic.twitter.com/9mEvFcIphOQuote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Cannot believe the good Congressman would believe social media would not have run down what was behind his amendment.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
http://zik.ua/en/news/2015/06/14/ant...vochkin_598626
Anti-Ukrainian provocation in USA was bankrolled by S. Liovochkin
Quote:
Ex-Regions heavyweight member Serhy Liovochkin was behind the anti-Ukrainian provocation in the United States aimed at declaring the ‘Azov’ volunteer battalion a neo-Nazi unit and banning to give Ukraine mobile AA missiles, Ihor Mosijchuk, a Radical party lawmaker, writes in Facebook June 14, citing his own investigation.
“The links to US Congress adopting a ban to provide instructors for ‘Azov’ servicemen and supply mobile AA Stinger missiles lead to Kyiv,” he writes.
The lobbying was done, under contract with Liovochkin, by US spin doctor Paul Mannafort whose services had been used by ex-president Yanukovych, Mosijchuk says.
The ban was initiated in the Congress by Congressman John Conniers
Reference Moldavian elections---Transnistria
REPORTS OF RUSSIAN SOLDIERS CHECKING PEOPLE FROM TRANSNISTRIA THAT WERE TRYING TO VOTE
http://agora.md/stiri/9909/rata-de-p...u-unii-votanti …
REPORTS OF BEATINGS IN POLLING STATIONS, PEOPLE BROUGHT BY BUS OR WITH AMBULANCES TO VOTE, OR PAID WITH MONEY OR DRINKS.
BREAKING: PARTIAL RESULTS SHOW PRO-RUSSIAN CANDIDATE(ACTUALLY BORN IN RUSSIA) WON THE CAPITAL CHISINAU
http://www.realitatea.md/live-text--...lei_22295.html …
#Donetsk 22:29
Proletarka - Loud BOOM minute ago, unclear what was https://twitter.com/Serzzze/status/610174902444924929 …
9:45PM
Anti-aircraft guns shooting again over the southern outskirts of #Luhansk... Very loud. https://twitter.com/Edward_Lugansk/s...56011400335360 …
#Donetsk 21:17
Trudovsky ds - loud volleys https://twitter.com/Serzzze/status/610155148371955714 …
#Russia|n snipers firing from trenches on the #Marinka front line near #Donetsk City
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=174&v=AJyWZK2B_f0 …
VIDEO Russian Hybrid Battlegroup 'Diesel' says it's ready to attack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jPL5IyKhYA … pic.twitter.com/EsJg34VtOB
"Separatist" leader Givi wounded in ammunition dump strike in #Donetsk https://www.facebook.com/vasul.andri...42?pnref=story … pic.twitter.com/PJToucgrBD
Militant Givi, who forced Ukrainian POWs to eat uniform patches, rumored to have been wounded.
Strelkov aka Girkin (on the left) 1992 in Bosnia pic.twitter.com/jDfRCidc7i
The individual who started the so called “separatist” movement in the Donbas
GRU and FSB officer
9:52PM
#Avdiivka small arms shooting, sounds like tanks at #Optyne and something heavy at #Pisky. https://twitter.com/bamr69/status/610157922870513665 …
Yesterday a #Russia(n) convoy of 10 Urals,13 armored vehicles,etc entered Shahtarsk #Ukraine http://translate.googleusercontent.c...k1BDp-0cHtxrQQ … pic.twitter.com/XlumiwWlAU
Rus backed fighters firing from trenches on the front line in Donetsk region (@rConflictNews) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJyWZK2B_f0 … pic.twitter.com/MWDWpGbBah
Ground fighting is still ongoing here--------
#Marinka 22:15PM
Skirmish in road police post area
Ground fighting is ongoing here------
#Avdiivka
Ongoing battle https://twitter.com/Olga_kievljanka/...69041995608064 …
15:22 #Volodymyrivka, #Artemovsk raion @solomazheka the 2nd a day UAV flew over fr/NE to/SW fr/#Novomykhaylivka tow/Kyrylivka
Militants keep intensely firing at Ukr forces and towns: 65 times during the day. Highest no. at #Donetsk direction https://www.facebook.com/ato.news/po...13523328658473 …
Volunteer Bogdan Kovalyov: No truce today in #Marinka - 2 KIA and 15 WIA http://censor.net.ua/news/340038/v_r...ce=twitterfeed …
Today in #Pisky perished a Dnipro-1 regiment serrviceman, head of #Donetsk Leninsky ds Svoboda party org Ihor Kanakov @vo_svoboda
#Putin created DNR mercenary "Givi" HQ was blown to bits by #Ukraine artillery http://translate.googleusercontent.c...0L1aDl8U-JQMMA … pic.twitter.com/LhDuzfttncQuote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
The Right Sector published an interview with the Nazi russian mercenary captured at Shyrokyno https://youtu.be/7WCNzHY4-rwQuote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
And it just keeps on------Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
#Kirovsk 23:25
Several powerful outgoing https://twitter.com/AngelMorbit/stat...81928310976513 …
Serious ongoing ground fight this evening---Russian troops may have broken across the Minsk 2 contact line—NOW the serious question for Obama is –do you stand on your G7 statements concerning if the fighting gets worse harder sanctions will be imposed???—IF not then what is the worth of anything any future US President states on anything???
#Marinka 23:20
Sound of battle again, from the Sovkhoz (state farm) area https://twitter.com/Serzzze/status/610183322984140800 …
Marinka 23:35
Fight continues. Sovkhoz (state farm), and Novomarinka area. https://twitter.com/666_mancer/statu...85108977524737 …
This is the only realistic scenario for that firing direction.
Russian forces between #Marinka and #Krasnohorivka. pic.twitter.com/fhuO6IKXZ4
Krasnohorivka 23:13
Explosions https://twitter.com/Serzzze/status/610183136031469569 …
Second serious fighting is ongoing here as well as the Russians are also attempting to cross the Minsk 2 line here as well.
VIDEO Fierce fight erupts near #Donetsk Airport (ruins) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qfPMF1GLyk … #Ukraine #Russia #Putin pic.twitter.com/Lez6wn2YSI
Battle restarted in #Mariinka tonight according to multiple sources. Daylight already brought several #Ukraine casualties
If this is in fact true then Obama has a serious creditability problem on his hands if the US does not react.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Appears Russian troops have in fact broken across the Minsk 2 contact line.
Russia|n forces break through #Ukraine defensive lines in #Marinka. Close combat fighting around the hospital now.
AND the shellings just keep on shelling----an example just from the night--still ongoing into the morning now.
3:53AM
"Chopped up very strongly with mortar shells, 5 minutes every hour, poor #Marinka... Again in smoke" https://twitter.com/Ykrainaponadyse/...48791896272896 …
#Luhansk 1:33AM
AA-gun shooting again it city south-east https://twitter.com/LUGANSKA_JUNTA/s...06095206948864 …
1:18AM
"Also in #Shchastya the whole evening SPGs and AA-guns play ping pong with shells." https://twitter.com/eugen_bullfinch/...09833871101953 …
#Horlivka 4:35AM
Shooting, something heavier. https://twitter.com/_John__Carter_/s...59179849302017 …
#Volnovakha 4:03AM
Towards #Starohnativka / #Staroignatievka heavy rumble since 20 minutes. https://twitter.com/lapa545/status/610251329760555009 …
#Donetsk 3:44AM
Kirovskyi district - Continuously from 3:30 artillery salvos began or MRLS singles https://twitter.com/ropogckou/status/610246449700409344 …
#Donetsk 3:49AM
Petrovka - heavy singles outgoing https://twitter.com/zzzwefzzz/status/610247610415357952
Lysychansk 3:40AM
Assault rifles shooting https://twitter.com/rescuero/status/610245466220032000 …
BREAKING: SURPRISING FINAL RESULTS IN MOLDOVA ELECTIONS(CHISINAU) - PRO-EU CAND. 37%, PRO-RUSSIAN 36%! WILL BE SETTLED IN 2ND ROUNDQuote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
#Russia passports handed out in #Transnistria as Russian media claim #Ukraine planning war: http://khpg.org/index.php?id=1434310866 … pic.twitter.com/OiXRG8xcYO
The Congressman should show some concern for the sheer number of Russian Nazi's fighting in the Ukraine and or in the Russian military. But he did not as he was false informed it seems by someone with other interests.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
A member of Russian Special Forces company which stormed the Crimean Parliament is an identified neo-Nazi pic.twitter.com/cjWSqu32NV
#Russian TV proudly shows its illegal armed groups setting up #landmines in Ukraine. https://youtu.be/H0KmJq9cww0 pic.twitter.com/OBIs4P6HcT
Format of hybrid war changing, #Russia will try to undermine #Ukraine's stability from within – Poroshenko http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/271764.html …
Volleys of MLRS "Grad" in Donetsk http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/15-june...rad-in-donetsk …
More on the two Russian Spetsnaz POWs: He claims he can validate and prove he is still a Russian active duty soldier.
Alexandrov, who was arrested in Donbass agreed to file civil lawsuit against MoD of RF for unfair dismissal from AF https://twitter.com/meduzaproject/st...70061682016256 …
AND the shelling and ground attacks numbers are climbing way past the highest number of daily attacks before Feb 2015 AND YET not a word out of DC, Paris, Berlin---just how strange is that after all the so called new sanctions being talked about during G7--but that is the problem--it was simply all talk.
ATO: Militants attack Ukrainian troops more than 40 times overnight
http://www.unian.info/war/1089360-at...overnight.html … pic.twitter.com/TjhqYgLGVM
Latest map shows that intense fighting resumes along the frontlines. Minsk 2 ... dead ... uhm, yes? https://twitter.com/NSDC_ua/status/610371782244179969 …
NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Map. Situation in eastern #Ukraine, June 15, 12:00 EET pic.twitter.com/hCeY2Tt848
28th Brigade report record number of attacks on their positions yesterday.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...55&__tn__=%2As … pic.twitter.com/nDhpiZrkJS
Rus terrorists also made a failed attempt to storm UKR positions near Olenivka - 28th Brigade
Severodonetsk 11:58AM
"Sounds like outgoing. Where?" https://twitter.com/trankvillina/sta...70699769815040 …
#Severodonetsk 11:55AM
Hear powerful explosions https://twitter.com/xy_gorlov4an/sta...70070909460480 …
Shelling of #Ukraine's positions has increased since arrival to #Donbas of #Russia's 29th 'humanitarian convoy' https://twitter.com/radiosvoboda/sta...46554755575808 …
Militants in #Donetsk held a mortar in the building of Service Station pic.twitter.com/H0helhF7Zc http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/15-june...n-the-building …
Gas and power supply on the occupied territory of #Donbas. #Ukraine http://daily.rbc.ru/investigation/po...7947b063440210 …
pic.twitter.com/DxzV717VmL
Russian officials in documents call occupied Luhansk and Donetsk region as zone "T1" and "T2" http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/15-june...cupied-luhansk …
Detainee militant says that his RU comrades are in abandoned apartments in Donetsk & looting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WCNzHY4-rw … pic.twitter.com/HEmmF9a9LA
5am, a heavy shelling started on Taramchuk and Berezove, monotonous and loud, like this whole "truce". https://twitter.com/Darren_Aro/statu...71902448795648 …
They say Between 22:00-00:00 rus terrorists fired with GRAD & mortars on Mariinka. During the day fired on Berezove with GRAD & tanks
Traffic on the highway "Slavyansk-Donetsk-Mariupol" from #Volnovakha to #Donetsk and back is closed as of Monday. https://twitter.com/Legioner_sniper/...70089880276993 …
Ukrainian soldier killed in Krymske, part of village left without power after shelling
http://www.unian.info/war/1089375-uk...-shelling.html … pic.twitter.com/X4kmiM8KAB
#Russia'n-separatists militants systematically destroy railway stations in the #Donbas with tanks: #Urkzaliznytsia. https://twitter.com/24todaynetua/sta...37310769573888 …
Residents of Donetsk blocked Artema str.They demand a stop to shelling. pic.twitter.com/1WlCPs9ZcK http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/15-june...trthey-require …
OSCE in Vienna is holding a conference on journalism in conflict/war zones and the protection of journalists.
Propaganda is not the main problem, the main problem is double standards - a key message from Russian delegation #journosafeOSCE Weird!
Russian delegation complains about 'double standards': why everybody trash their propaganda, but ignore Ukrainian
#journosafeOSCE
Russian delegation attack Ukraine at #journosafeOSCE. But there are 35 of us from Ukraine. We will answer
Ban of Russian channels, detention of journos from Russia, arrests of anti-war reporters in Ukraine, Russian rep complains
Sweden to the OSCE @SwedeninATOSCE
@OSCE @OSCE_RFoM #JournoSafeOSCE apparently also an arena for Russian misinformation: laughter around the room as we hear known narrative
#Russia rep to #OSCE: "propaganda can be different" , "Russia is the only OSCE place where there is NO crisis #journosafeOSCE
There are multiply audible smirks at #journosafeOSCE while Russian rep goes on with a primary example of whataboutism pic.twitter.com/ZeLA3a1M1Q
Russian oppositional journalist was surprised to see Russian propaganda on #journosafeOSCE - https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...type=1&theater … pic.twitter.com/8l2QkuoX9V
Russia brought their fantasy books about some concentration camps in Ukraine. Again. They do this again after Belgrad. #journosafeOSCE
Over 300 Ukrainian journalists disappeared or killed - highest in OSCE region in 15years #journosafeOSCEQuote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
LT_OSCE @LT_OSCE
#journosafeOSCE RU desperatley tries to convince audience that OSCE and UN are biased while talking about annexed Crimea. Nothing new...
Terrorists shelled Ukrainian army’s positions and villages for more than 100 times in the last day - ATO press center http://en.censor.net.ua/n340050Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
One of many factories. #Luhansk machine building plant stands w/o equipment, all taken to #Cheboksary, #Russia. https://twitter.com/uanews3/status/610027611964764160 …
#Tymchuk:#Russia intel. behind attack on #Ukraine Consulate in Rostov,prepared on same base as"tourists" for #Donbas https://www.facebook.com/dmitry.tymc...09777469150911 …
Geoffrey Pyatt ✔ @GeoffPyatt
Given ongoing #russianaggression, making very clear to US businesses the econ + reputational risks of attending St Petersburg Forum (@SPIEF)
Geoffrey Pyatt ✔ @GeoffPyatt
Want to see American businesses join us in sending strong message to #Kremlin – must comply with #Minsk, end occupation of #Crimea.
Geoffrey Pyatt ✔ @GeoffPyatt
Our msg to those considering @SPIEF: #Russia is flouting most fundamental principles of international law. Not time for “business as usual”
Needs no explanations:
NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Luhansk sector: Popasna, Shchastya, Krymske, Novotoshkivske. Militants launched 30 Grad rockets at Troyitske pic.twitter.com/uqZ4mYaO3o
NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Other hotspots: Horlivka, 1 Grad missile attack by Novomykhaylivka followed by tank attacks, 1 civilian injured in Krasnohorivka
NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Donetsk sector: Pro-Russian insurgents conducted intensive attacks near airport. UA border guards repelled attack by Verkhnyotoretske
Note: this was an attempted Spetsnaz border crossing.
NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Mariupol sector: Fighting in Shyrokyne. Militants used 122mm artillery & “Grad-P” systems
NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Pro-Russian militants continues breaking ceasefire, firing at residential districts of frontline cities
NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
2 Ukrainian soldiers KIA, 20 got wounded in the last 24 hours.
NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Ukrainian servicemen spotted 25 flights of enemy UAVs yesterday
NSDC of Ukraine ✔ @NSDC_ua
Ukrainian services resumed gas supply to Mariupol, Volnovakha, Avdiivka.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Seems the local Ukrainian media has a far different view of Azov as does the good Congressman:
Holding back #Putin’s Red Tide in #Shyrokyne (#photo essay):
http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/06/1...-in-shyrokyne/ …
AZOV pic.twitter.com/pubxQtm4G2
Will comment on this later today.
Ukraine'll not pay for deliveries of Russian electricity to the occupied territories of Donbass - "Ukrenergo" https://twitter.com/sergvlady/status/610382142829428737 …
Appears the "locals" seem to be getting fed up with their mercenary government now they are conducting "flash demos".
Zaharchenko tries to pacify protesting anti-war crowd not very successful https://youtu.be/TkDWt_oAk64
Donetsk: #Zakharchenko can not calm the residents. Some people begin to disperse, others provide further questions. https://twitter.com/aa_borodulin/sta...94528084828160 …
Zaharchenko promises the residents of Oktyabrsky, whose homes have been destroyed, a safe place to stay. #Doentsk pic.twitter.com/wsJJsGsGQB
People in Donetsk stage a peace protest. For the first time since the war began https://meduza.io/en/news/2015/06/15...astern-ukraine …
Quote:
Local residents call out:'Stop the war' 'Give our destroyed housing back' 'Away with you all'
novayagazeta.ru/news/1694493.html … About 500 people turn out for anti-war protest in Donetsk. Zakharchenko addresses the crowd, who yell & interrupt him
Donetsk resident in flash rally against DNR's use of residential quarters as shelling launch-sites; "get out of here" http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/1694493.html …
Protesters in Donetsk say terrorists shell from residential areas and these are hit in response: http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/1694493.html …
That's what I've said about, they demand to 'fling back UKR arty' according to Lifenews https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B12Y...ature=youtu.be …
Appears that Russia is now formally admitting it is hurting or they would not been evidently trying a trial balloon like this—Russia is having a hard time getting the Ukrainians attention—they are weathering the shelling and ground attacks, have basically blockaded the mercenaries in a corner and are getting financial help from the West—they are in no hurry to do deals with Russia and in the meantime Russia is struggling to financially support their mercenaries and the daily war costs for the military deployment are pushing 30M USD a day.
top.rbc.ru/politics/15/06/2015/557ea3169a7947375ffa6b5c … Media reports that Moscow has sent a secret peace proposal, though a source says leadership in Kiev must change 1st.
Kremlin's terms for #Minsk3: DPR/LPR (ie Russia) to control entire territory of Donbas region?! https://translate.google.ie/translat...k-3&edit-text= … via @JoergForbrig
Moscow's next trap for Kyiv? @vesti reports Minsk 3 proposal to include autonomy for full Luhansk/Donetsk oblasts, amnesty for rebels......creation of national militia, gov't reshuffle or snap election in Kyiv http://vesti-ukr.com/donbass/103515-...tovili-minsk-3 …
Russian troops and her mercenaries and their heavy weapons are on the move.
Tymchuk: Ukrainian armed forces have recorded 20 trucks with a pontoon bridge system to south of Luhansk http://www.unian.info/war/1089411-ty...ebaltseve.html …
Tymchuk: 14 Jun Russian forces also moved 3x 9K35 Strela-10 short-range SAM systems between the village of Sadove and the town of Khartsyzk
Tymchuk: On 14 June Russian forces redeployed 2x TOR SAM systems through Shakhtarsk (+ 2x BTR-80 amphibious APCs and 3x KAMAZ trucks)
Tymchuk: On 14 June Russian forces deployed 450-500 troops + 6x 2S1 Gvozdika SPGs + 5 D-30 howitzers near Horlivka http://www.unian.info/war/1089411-ty...ebaltseve.html …
Tymchuk: Russian forces forward deploy 1000+ troops and many 122/152mm artillery units to Horlivka and Debaltseve http://www.unian.info/war/1089411-ty...ebaltseve.html …
DNR and LNR is called zone T1 & T2 in Russia government
via @InfoResist And someone still believes in Novorossia
Seems some Russian officials just cannot let go of the past---moderator on Russian TV
"We lost the country in 1991. Now we recovering....returned Crimea, and finally the battle with the West!" - Prohanov at #NTV.
After #Ukraine hit Givi's ammo store Russia's DNR troops shelled RESIDENTIAL areas in #Donetsk
http://podrobnosti.ua/2040696-pod-do...ikov-givi.html … pic.twitter.com/J2qOw5FRp2
Rostov-on-Don in #Russia, close to Ukraine, with 5000 new no-name graves pic.twitter.com/flZWSi0Ukf
Russian MoD: Moscow will boost forces on Western flank should US store heavy arms in Baltic states and eastern Europe http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/a...cs/523613.html …
Fighting intensifies in the #Donbas. #Russia forces attacking with heavy artillery:
http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/06/1...in-the-donbas/ … pic.twitter.com/YxRWkir2ya
Minsk dies one more time - Zakharchenko: the DNR is an independent state, will "never be part of Ukraine": http://ria.ru/world/20150615/1070093401.html …
@LUGANSK_TODAY
Ghost Army in #Ukraine. Identified soldiers who captured Council of Ministers of Crimea http://lugansk-news.com/putin-ghost-...ers-of-crimea/ … pic.twitter.com/VWtElkbgxF
Image of the situation in East #Ukraine #Russia(n) forces spreading like a cancer in #Donbas pic.twitter.com/QEYOo1wfJO
During Cold War, Rep Conyers tight with World Peace Council a known KGB front. Some things never change.Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Two #Azov soldiers troll #Russia media online,pretend they're USA soldiers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxtQzJghF24 …
Full report here: http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/06/1...-in-shyrokyne/
Well that trial balloon did not last long----went over like a "lead balloon it seems"Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
RBC: The Kremlin has denied reports about offering a "compromise" on Donbass to Kiev. https://twitter.com/ru_rbc/status/610404062798942208 …
More commenting on this topic----Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
youtube.com/watch?v=9GmN7HHo2VY … Surprise! #Donetsk's #Russia-picked #Zakharchenko cornered by war-ravaged locals. pic.twitter.com/cxNZ5irXTB
Looks like Donetsk's already famous "anti-war" rally also featured people calling to push back Ukrainian troops.
Anti-war rally in #Donetsk (unclear who organized)
Zakharchenko: What's your name?
Lady: No way! So that I get shot?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkDW...ature=youtu.be …
It is interesting to see how the American “Left” is positioning itself over the Ukraine.
Even though this writer is American—he words and arguments are largely the same ones being used by Russian propaganda.
It also appears that the American “Left” still is roaming the world in search of something that does not exist and fell apart in 1991.
Russian propaganda 4Ds--dismiss, distract, distort, dismay ---all designed to create 2Ds--distrust and doubt.
http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/...agreement-dead
Kiev Pronounces Minsk Agreement Dead
June 14th, 2015
by Stephen Lendman
Stephen Lendman lives in Chicago and can be reached at lendmanstephen@sbcglobal.net.Quote:
It was dead on arrival like the two previous 2014 ceasefire agreements - not worth the paper they were written on despite Russia and Donbass freedom fighters fully observing them.
The Kiev Post is a junta regime house organ. Its reports are virtual press releases. Independent journalism is banned in Ukraine.
Regime approved views alone are permitted. Violators risk harassment, arrests, imprisonment or death.
On June 5, the Kiev Post headlined Minsk is Dead: Now What?"
The broadsheet turned truth on its head claiming a nonexistent "Russia(n) renewed military offensive in eastern Ukraine provides the latest evidence that the Kremlin violates the Minsk II peace agreement at will."
Fact: No so-called "Russian aggression" exists - not now or earlier. Claims otherwise are Big Lies.
Fact: The whole world knows Kiev and Washington bear full responsibility for naked aggression on Donbass. It continues daily.
The Kiev Post called prospects for peace dim. It failed to explain why. It lied claiming "Russian-separatist forces launched a renewed assault on…Maryinka."
Kiev and Washington bear full responsibility for all acts of aggression on Donbass. Self-defense forces respond only in self-defense as international law allows.
Illegitimate Kiev prime minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk lied claiming Russia "order(ed) its terrorists" to attack Ukrainian forces. Truth is polar opposite - what Western leaders and echo chamber media refuse to acknowledge despite clear irrefutable evidence.
The rest of the Kiev Post's report was full of rubbish blaming Donbass freedom fighters for blatant junta crimes.
On June 11, Russia's Foreign Ministry accused Washington of destabilizing Ukraine in a statement saying:
"Unlike Russia, the United States not only fails to make any real efforts to resolve the crisis in Ukraine and prevent a humanitarian catastrophe in the (eastern) Luhansk and Donetsk regions, but in fact it spurs the current authorities in Kiev to continue the fratricidal civil conflict."
On June 10, Kiev for the first time claimed Russia occupies Donbass (the so-called Anti-Terrorist Zone). A letter signed by its illegitimate foreign minister Pavlo Klimkin states:
"Taking into account the aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, which took place with the participation of regular (units) of the Armed Forces of the RF and the illegal armed formations, which are directed, ruled and financed by the Russian Federation, an anti-terrorist operation is being carried out…"
"The Russian Federation, which in fact occupied separate territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk Regions and carries out management of them, bears full responsibility for the provision and protection of human rights in these territories in accordance with the international humanitarian legislation and internationally established human rights."
Kiev blames Russia for its own high crimes. It outrageous accused Moscow of seizing control of 169 Ukrainian municipalities.
On June 10, Tass reported Ukraine intending to impose a complete food, transport and financial blockade on Donbass based on pending legislation, according to Ukrainian Choice public movement leader Viktor Medvedchuk.
This means Donbass residents "will be left by the state to their devices," he explained. Kiev "is not even trying to launch the negotiation process with the Donetsk and Lugansk republics."
Meanwhile, Russians overwhelmingly support Putin. Recent Pew Research poll numbers showed his approval rating reached 88%.
His Ukraine policy has 83% popular support. Relations with China are supported by 90% of Russians, and his US agenda got an 85% approval rating.
His new book as editor and contributor is titled "Flashpoint in Ukraine: How the US Drive for Hegemony Risks World War III".
http://www.claritypress.com/LendmanIII.html
Read here abt Russia's incredible claims that Ukraine is planning to attack Transnistria. Russia's purpose not clear http://khpg.org/index.php?id=1434310866 …Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Sweden Denounces Russias Unpredictable Airspace Provocations http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/15-june...e-provocations … pic.twitter.com/6lXOk8ie4I
Has Givi died from his wounds?
https://twitter.com/raging545/status/610450898687512576 …
Report: #Givi the leader of the "battalion "Somalia" DOA after a shell hit the militant's HQ in #Donetsk http://patrioty.org.ua/likaryam-ne-v...rt-svogo-bosa/ …
Zakharchenko: DNR is an independent country and will not be part of Ukraine http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/15-june...untry-and-wont … via @EgoRZemtsoV
And it is a violation of Minsk agreement. There are no "DNR" or "LNR" there https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/610466297474846720 …
http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/06/1...eal-nightmare/
Putin’s unrealizable dream vs. his all too-real nightmare
2015/06/15 •
Quote:
That Vladimir Putin lives in a different reality than do other world leaders is now more or less common ground. Now, two commentators have described respectively what the Kremlin leader dreams about and what his worst nightmare might turn out to be.
In a commentary of Kyiv’s “Novoye vremya,” Yury Felshtinsky, a Russian historian who now lives in the US, says that Putin’s dream is that the world will treat his Russia as having a status equal to that of the United States, something the writer says is beyond his capacity to achieve.
For Putin, Felshtinsky says, “the US is the main problem. Not Chechnya, not Georgia and not Ukraine.” But he has a problem: “Perhaps America would be glad to recognize Russia as an equal partner but Russia has nothing besides Gazprom, and the earnings of Gazprom are less than those of the American company Apple.”
“America has no ideology regarding Russia. It wants to see Russia as it wants to see everyone else as a peaceful and reliable partner in politics and business,” he continues. However, “there cannot be relations of parity between the two because Russia in the literal sense is not a great power. It exports raw materials and imports everything else.”
“Over the course of the last century,” he writes, Russia “has destroyed its farmers and its own intellectuals, carried out the terror famine in Ukraine, and conducted a global purge of its own Soviet communist nomenklatura and army. And the Soviet Union fought with Hitler only because the latter attacked it.”
In contrast, “Washington dreams only about one thing” – that Russia will stop causing problems. “No one ever expected anything good from Russia, only something bad,” although when periods of a warming of the relationship happen, “all are ready to accept this as a long-term strategic change and look with hope into the eyes of Putin, a KGB guy who, as President Bush said, one could believe.”
“Unfortunately,” he writes, “ordinary Americans on the whole do not think or know anything about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict: if you turn on the main American television channels, you won’t hear about Crimea, Luhansk or the Donbas.”
And when Putin annexed Crimea, “almost all world leaders indicated to Putin that they were ready to recognize the annexation if Putin would declare an end to his plans for seizing the territory of the former Soviet republics.” Putin spat in their faces, declaring the existence of a Russian world that he would defend and denying that Ukraine was a state at all.
But now it is clear that Putin’s Russia doesn’t have the resources to carry out his threats. “There is a lot of boldness, bluffing, and even more bad behavior, but the boorishness of Zhirinovsky and Rogozin won’t help you to take on America.” What you can do and what Putin has done is to harm Russia.”
“One can intimidate the entire world with nuclear weapons; one can help Iran and North Korea; one can kill Nemtsov; one can poison Kara-Murza; and one can ban the import of sprats from the Baltics,” Felshtinsky says. But those who will suffer as a result of this ban are not the Balts but the Russians.
Putin, of course, “is thinking in other categories. This is already not about money; it is about eternity, empire and glory. Putin has to prepare Russia for global isolation from the West in the case of the beginning of a major war. Sprats are a serious test of Russians’ firmness, because if they are not ready to live without sprats, they won’t fight for Putin. But if they will, then they will be able to do everything else.”
“The time for talks with Russia, unfortunately, has passed,” Felshtinsky concludes. “Russia does not plan to reach agreement with the West, but the West sincerely does not understand how one can reach an agreement with a negotiating partner if he does not plan to agree on anything.”
If Putin’s dream is to have his country be treated as the equal of the United States, his nightmare is that he is on course to become a second Gorbachev and preside over the disintegration of his country into a plethora of smaller states with himself ousted from the stage of big politics and history.
In a comment on Ekho Moskvy, Aleksandr Goldfarb, the head of the Litvinenko Foundation in London, says that there are some good reasons why Putin may have such fears. The Soviet Union fell apart “quickly and unexpectedly” because of the coming together of five factors: there was a war in Afghanistan, a collapse in oil prices, the non-existence of the Soviet economy, corruption and cynicism among the elite, and pressure from the West.
Now, all five of these have been recreated: there is a war in Ukraine, a collapse in oil prices, a systemic economic crisis, corruption and “colossal income differentiation,” and Western sanctions and “a course directed at isolating Russia.”
“Economists predict,” Goldfarb says, “that the stabilization fund will run out of money within a year, that then inflation will reach 25 percent and social dissatisfaction will rise. Oil apparently isn’t going to become more expensive. The Ukrainian fiasco will be no smaller than [the Soviet one] in Afghanistan, and the West will not weaken sanctions.”
Moreover, he continues, “whatever anyone says, [the West] has clearly adopted a course directed at regime change” in Russia. “In this situation, Putin has three options.”
First, he can leave office and transfer power to one of his slightly less corrupt comrades in arms, hoping against hope that they won’t turn him over to the international court even as they reverse his policies and his support disappears “like smoke.”
Second, Putin can “tighten the screws, extend the war, completely break with the West and build a mobilization economy.” That could extend his rule for “many years,” but he could achieve these things only by instituting the kind of purges of his colleagues that Stalin used to maintain his power.
And “finally” there is “the third path: do nothing and await the collapse of the economy, an uncontrolled disintegration with an unpredictable outcome” as the situation spins “out of control.”