The Perils Of Pulling Out

23 April edition of Newsweek - The Perils Of Pulling Out by Christopher Dickey and John Barry.

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The battle lines may be clearer in Washington than in Iraq. A Democratic-controlled Congress wants to set a timetable for U.S. combat troops to get out of a fight the American public no longer supports. When he meets with congressional leaders this week, President George W. Bush will vow again to veto any such bill. And like the president, Republican Sen. John McCain—decorated veteran, presidential hopeful and stubborn supporter of the U.S. troop surge in Baghdad—warns of apocalyptic consequences if there's a pullout.

"This is an historic choice, with ramifications for Americans not even born yet," McCain recently told students at Virginia Military Institute who were about to graduate from gray cadet uniforms to desert camouflage. A premature U.S. withdrawal would create "a Wild West for terrorists" who believe "we Americans are their ultimate target." For the Iraqis, warned McCain, a U.S. pullout would lead to "genocide" in which "we would be complicit."

He could well be right. In the Middle East, aid workers, regional leaders, Iraqi officials and ordinary civilians agree that if the Americans leave quickly, Iraq's disastrous condition could be made much worse. They warn of a massive flood of refugees heading for the borders, of massacres as Sunnis and Shiites cross paths, of a proxy war funded by Iran and Saudi Arabia within Iraq itself. "The consequences of [this] not working out are catastrophic," says an aid worker overseeing part of the U.N. relief effort in Iraq, who doesn't want to make any comment on the record that might sound political.

That's why the White House is asking for more time. The surge of more than 20,000 additional American troops that Bush announced earlier this year now looks to total well over 30,000, in addition to the 134,000 already in the country. To meet those numbers, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said last week that the tours of many soldiers in Iraq would be extended. The idea is not that the troops will be able to end the insurgency quickly, but for them to tamp down the violence long enough for rebuilding and political reconciliation to take root. "This is a marathon, not a sprint," says David Kilcullen, a counterinsurgency specialist who is part of the team pulled together by Gen. David Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq...

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Much more at the link.

From the 23 April edition of the Weekly Standard - Fighting to Win by Frederick W. Kagan. Hat Tip to Council member Merv Benson at his Prairie Pundit blog.

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As Congress again takes up the issue of support for our troops fighting in Iraq, members should have the decency to take account of the successes those troops have fought for and achieved in recent weeks. Much of the support in the Democratic caucus for cutting off funds for Iraq comes from a conviction that the war is irretrievably lost. One could be excused for thinking that in the fall of 2006, when sectarian violence seemed to be cycling out of control against the backdrop of a wrong-headed U.S. strategy. But President Bush has adopted a new strategy, put in place a new command team, and provided new resources for the effort, and the situation has begun to improve. Failure remains possible, as it always does in war, but the possibility of victory has grown significantly. Prospects for success are brightest, moreover, in the struggle against al Qaeda--the challenge that many opponents of the war claim is America s only interest in Iraq. It would be the height of folly to cut off support for the war effort just as it is beginning to show glimmers of hope in a struggle central to the safety of all Americans.

There is no question that Iraq has become the central front for al Qaeda in the world today. Thousands of foreign fighters flow along recruiting networks that span the Muslim world and into Iraq to attack our soldiers and the Iraqi people. Most opponents of continuing the war admit that fighting these committed terrorists remains a national priority for America. Some argue that an American withdrawal would reduce Iraq s attractiveness to al Qaeda, reducing the number of terrorists and the threat they pose. Many believe that it is possible to fight al Qaeda using special forces and long-range missiles without engaging in the "civil war" they believe is still raging in Iraq. Neither proposition is true...

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Much more at the link...

When Crook was defeated by the insurgent Lakota/Cheyene at the Rosebud, the only thing that kept Crazy Horse from pursuing him and wiping him out completely was word came down that the main wasacuan (medicine/holy man - Sitting Bull) was 'seeing' another big fight to the north in the making. Crazy Horse then took his jihadists up to the Little Big Horn. This time the Indians most definitely will pursue. Stand your ground. My .02 worth says the recent AQ actions in N. Africa are a result of the anticipated withdrawal from Iraq, not the invasion.

Rocco Phillipe gives a first hand account on the effects of the surge in Baghdad.

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I have observed first-hand the effects of the Bush Administration's new Iraq security plan since it began two months ago. Street violence in Baghdad and surrounding areas has declined. Shops and markets once boarded up are reopening. Iraqi civilians are venturing out onto the streets again and living their lives with less fear of being persecuted, tortured, maimed or killed. To be sure, there is still plenty of terror and violence in Iraq, but since the "troop surge" began, it has lessened considerably.

Before offering first hand proof of the new security plan's effectiveness, I must first tell you how some of my Iraqi friends and acquaintances were affected by the violence that ran virtually unchecked through the streets of Baghdad before the plan began taking hold. It is important to do this since the Democratic Party and most of those on the left side of the political spectrum either do not realize, or do not seem to care, that the lives of millions of Iraqis, (our fellow human beings), will be seriously jeopardized should America cut short its efforts to help stabilize their country.

What my Iraqi friends have so far experienced is a taste of what will happen to millions of Iraqis if the reckless Left forces the US from Iraq before the terrorists, including active Al Qaeda members, are driven out of the country.

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It is a long and very personal account that gives a feel for how many Iraqis are coping with the violence that the enemy is visiting on them. It is also filled with a dismay that they may yet be abandoned.