Insurgent/militia control in Iraq
My name is Michael Weaver, and I am political science undergraduate the University of Chicago. I am currently working on a project in which I hope to investigate whether theories about the use violence in non-ethnic civil wars also hold in purportedly "ethnic" civil wars. In particular, I hope to evaluate these hypotheses by looking at Iraq. One of the theories I would like to test is Stathis Kalyvas's argument about how insurgent and incumbent control determine the use of selective or indiscriminate violence. I plan to test this hypothesis by examining variation in violence across both neighborhoods in Baghdad and across cities, towns, and villages throughout Iraq between 2005 and 2007. Unfortunately, I am unaware of any systematic collection of data on the degree to which militia or insurgent groups exercised control over territory (either at the neighborhood or town/village level) in Iraq.
Does anyone know if such systematic data exists, and if so, who I should contact to either obtain it, or attempt to obtain it (seeing as it is highly probable such information would not be publicly available)?
Assuming either the non-existence or unavailability of such data on control, I plan to collect data myself. I am currently using media reports from both major newspapers and Iraqslogger.com to come up with a rough coding scheme for control over neighborhoods in Baghdad. Are there any other resources that anyone would recommend for information on the degree to which militias/insurgent groups exercised control over particular neighborhoods in Baghdad or towns/villages/regions across Iraq?
(Note: I do have intermediate Arabic reading skills and potential access to someone familiar with Iraqi dialect)
On a related note: I am also interested in obtaining access to disaggregated figures on both violent attacks and civilian deaths in Iraq from the SIGACTS database. I initially contacted the MNF-Iraq press desk seeking information about what was available and what was not. After 2 months of back and forth I was told that they did not have the disaggregated data I was looking for. If anyone has suggestions about who I should contact about the possibility of obtaining this data, I would greatly appreciate any leads, particularly if I could be directed to people in the military involved in the data collection operation or in data analysis.
Welcome aboard Michael...
I'd recommend starting with Kimberly Kagan's Iraq Reports I-X. The first one is linked here http://www.weeklystandard.com/Conten...3/343fthms.asp. Not only are her reports fairly thorough, but they are fairly accurate as well (IMO).
Mark Kukis from Time Magazine wrote some very accurate articles from 2005-2007 ranging from Basra to Fallujah to Diyala.
If you want to read of an account of Al Qaeda using Mao's techniques and tactics to occupy and establish the Islamic State of Iraq, you can read my article The Break Point published for SWJ. It parallels Bob Andrews The Village War: Vietnamese Communist Revolutionary Activities in Dinh Tuong Province, 1960-1964.
Regardless of any data collected, I'd urge you to be highly critical of the results. I have yet to see any game theory model or systems data accurately reflect the actions on the ground. In our desire to measure activities to define metrics of success, we often fail to be critical of the source and motives.
With that said, these are good start points for you. Good luck with your research.
v/r
Mike
