IDF, Gaza, and a multinational force?
Oh, this could be a disaster:
Quote:
Israel is considering a large-scale incursion into the Gaza Strip during which it would present an ultimatum to the international community for the deployment of a multinational force as the only condition under which it would withdraw, defense officials have told The Jerusalem Post.
Jerusalem Post, 18 February 2008.
As I see it, the most probable outcomes would be:
1a) IDF invades, no forth is forthcoming, they get stuck there for a while, Palestinian casualties mount, killing Israeli-PA peace negotiations in the process.
1b) IDF invades, no force forthcoming, they start they leave, Hamas claims victory.
2a) IDF invades, multinational force deploys, rockets get fired over their heads, UN/multinational force gets blamed, IDF fires back over their heads. Think UNIFIL 1979-81.
2b) IDF invades, multinational force deploys, rockets get fired over their head, UN/multinational force goes after armed groups, and either takes serious casualties from irate locals, and/or comes to be seen in Palestinian and Arab eyes as willing auxiliary participants in occupation of Palestinian territory. Major setback in GWoT.
What is by far the least likely is what I presume to be the intention of all this, namely:
3) IDF invades, fatally wounds Hamas, multinational force deploys, Fateh regains control, rockets stop.
Gaza and the Rafah crossing
The linked article looks at the agreements governing the Rafah crossing and how they are being interpreted and implemented.
How the EU helps Israel to strangle Gaza
Get someone else to fight for you
With reference to Rex's post, is it just me or is this now becoming the norm.
Lebanon, Somalia, Gaza etc. As seen in Iraq and elsewhere the kinetic phase - when you are a well equipped modern arm and they are not your equal - is the relatively easy bit. It is the staying on when your are not popular with the locals that is the problem. No problem invade, displace Hezbollah/UIC/Hamas and then hope a friend on the security council can get someone else, AU/UN, to come in and enforce your newly created status quo for you. Nice plan - if you ignore the suffering you cause for the civilians in your AO.
IDF ordered to tone down Gaza ops
State orders IDF to curb strikes against Hamas, Haaretz, 10 March 2008.
Quote:
The government recently ordered the Israel Defense Forces to exercise restraint in operations in the Gaza Strip, pursuant to what a senior government official termed new rules of the game forged in the aftermath of last week's military operation in Gaza.
...
The senior government official said that in effect, the unofficial ground rules covered three possible scenarios:
* If the rocket fire stops completely, so will IDF operations in Gaza.
* If Palestinians fire only at Sderot and other communities near Gaza, Israel will respond primarily with aerial assaults.
* If rockets hit Ashkelon, Israel will respond with ground operations like last week's, which killed over 100 Palestinians.
However, the official warned, "beyond the temporary lull, the new tacit arrangement does not advance Israel toward its goals." This arrangement, he added, "completely contradicts the cabinet's decision [of last week], without proper procedure or cabinet approval."
That having been said, one has to be a bit careful about the accuracy of such leaks, especially in Israel where they are an especially well-honed tool of policy struggles within the government.
Stopping Hamas rocket attacks
How does Israel stop Hamas rocket attacks? A massive ground invasion into the strip to flatten Hamas? Target Hamas leadership? Economic strangulation of the strip? Would any of these work? Any creative ideas?
"Elizabeth... I'm coming to join ya"
(homage to Fred Stanford)
Amen brother Wilf
As a caveat, I'm neither a jew or an apologist, but I've never been able to understand how the US political left came to convince themselves that israel was the anchovey on this political pizza pie.
Plenty of unsavory actors on both sides, and true suffering and sadness for the majority of Palestinians...
but walk a mile in their shoes and you might find a real change of heart