Al-Qaeda in Africa (merged thread)
At the Threats Watch blog - Grapes of Wrath: America's Recipe for al-Qaeda's Victory by Steve Schippert.
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The US State Department Supports All But Somalis in Somalia
It’s ‘The Other Spring Offensive.’ In order to create an eastern toehold on the Horn of Africa and create an Islamist Crescent from Mogadishu to Morocco, al-Qaeda is recommitting to re-taking Somalia through their once-ousted Southern Garrison, the Islamic Courts Union. With al-Qaeda’s clear and overt strategic aims on conquering Somalia, one would think that, at the very least, America’s economic might would be employed to support Somalis practically begging for the tools to do the bulk of the fighting themselves on all fronts - militarily, governmentally and socially. Think again.
This week, I wrote an analytical commentary for
FrontPage Magazine titled
Do or Die in Somalia that looked at the situation on the ground there but, more importantly, also at America’s inexplicably disengaged stance in a clear front-line battle with al-Qaeda. Given that al-Qaeda’s goal is to destroy the UN-recognized Transitional Federal Government and replace it with an Islamist-run state governed by strict adherence to Shari’a law, this American disengagement is difficult to fathom...
African Jihad - Bin Laden's quest for the Horn of Africa
Anyone read this book? I'm curious and might pick it up, but would like to know if it's worth the effort. These days, I only get to read on the throne...
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The African Jihad is a fascinating examination of the efforts by international jihadists to bring about their grand vision of Islamist hegemony in the greater Horn of Africa region. These efforts began with the collaboration between Al Qaeda and the National Islamic Front (NIF) government of Sudan. The NIF under the ideological leadership of Hasan al-Turabi and Al Qaeda under Osama bin Laden sought to channel the social, political and economic grievances of Muslim communities into a global jihadist narrative, and the NIF and Al Qaeda worked hand in glove to set up and/or support several, coordinated jihadist movements in the countries of Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda. The combined Al Qaeda-NIF regional onslaught bequeathed a legacy of proxy wars and terrorism against Eritrea, Ethiopia and Uganda and Al Qaeda terror operations in Kenya and Tanzania. Dr. Gregory Alonso Pirio takes the story of Horn of Africa jihadism up to the defeat of Union of Islamic Courts in Somalia by the combined forces of Ethiopia and the Somali Transitional Federal Government in early 2007; Dr. Pirio demonstrates how a faction within Somalia’s Islamic Courts movement with historic ties to Al Qaeda had come to dominate the Islamic Court’s movement and threatened wider regional insecurity and the expansion of the Middle East conflict into Africa.
al-Qaeda's rebirth in Africa
Today, Halting Al-Qaeda's African Rebound, a six part article appeared in Canada's Troy Media. The article is worth a long read. Great background and insightful.
Find it at http://www.troymedia.com/blog/2011/1...ebound-part-6/
In part 2 Wilner states Of the many and varied violent non-state African groups that share some of al Qaeda’s ideological principles and practical goals, two currently stand out: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and al Shabaab. Other prominent regional organizations, like the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), the Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ), al-Itihaad al-Islaami (AIAI), Hizbul Islam, or the Armed Islamic Group (popularly known by its French name Groupe Islamique Armé, GIA) have largely been destroyed, disbanded, or rolled into other groups. While it is plausible that remnants of these organizations will regroup or that new terrorist organizations will be formed, the focus of international counterterrorism in Africa rests primarily on combatting and containing AQIM and al Shabaab."
I want to spend a lot of time on this important article, then get back here with perceptions. I trust some of you will read and contribute to the discuss too.
Who and what exactly is Al Qaeda?
I'm asking that question because I'm not sure.
Some radical Islamic extremists are armed and have grudges against their home governments and the Western powers that support them, but does that make them Al Qaeda?
Boko Haram for example, is not Al Qaeda and even if Boko Haram is associated with Al Qaeda, its association with Al Qaeda is not its defining characteristic. (I have discussed this at length in another thread).
Western analysts really need to step outside the narrow "war on terrorism" framework and appreciate the real sources of instability and violence in the Sahel and the Maghreb.
As long as there is widespread poverty and unemployment and as long as Islamist organisations continue to be the best positioned to provide social services. As long as governments are perceived as being weak and corrupt and as long as the West is perceived as being biased in support of Israel and the US is seen as waging war on Muslim countries - there will be terrorism against Western interests.
To deal with the so-called "Al Qaeda", the World needs to (1) appreciate it is the economy, stupid (2) understand that you cannot solve these problems with drones and (3) prepare for a long struggle.
US Congress holds hearing on Boko Haram
US Congress heard from experts on Boko Haram. Yet to see the full transcript, but the experts don't see Boko Haram as an immediate threat to the United States.
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A congressional panel has held a hearing on the threat to the U.S. homeland from the militant Islamist sect Boko Haram, based in northern Nigeria. Boko Haram has attracted more scrutiny after bombing the United Nations headquarters in the Nigerina capital Abuja, killing more than 20 people on August 26, 2011.
One of the Africa experts that testified at the House Homeland Security subcommittee hearing on the threat from the radical Islamist group to the United States is Peter Pham of the Atlantic Council of the United States. He told the panel that the name "Boko Haram" is made up of Hausa and Arabic words and translates roughly as "Western eductation is a sin."
"Thus Boko Haram is not only a name, but a slogan, to the effect that Western education and such products that arise from it are sacrilege," said Pham.
The Boko Haram militants say they are fighting for the creation of a Sharia-led nation in the north of Nigeria, and they do not recognize the authority of Nigeria's constitution or President Goodluck Jonathan.
Ricardo Laremont is a Professor of Political Science at Binghamton University in the state of New York. He explained the group's traditional operating methods.
Link:http://www.voanews.com/english/news/...134782893.html
Keep AQ in Africa in proportion
KingJaja and others,
I am sceptical that AQ has been reborn in Africa and in other places. The original linked, Canadian article does not raise any new points, although it does emphasise the dangers facing Canada from AQ-inspired terrorism.
Some of the discussion on AQ in Africa reminds me of the thread discussing David Killcullen's book 'The Accidental Guerilla' and the association of local insurgency to the AQ 'brand'. There are several threads on Killcullen's work, this one is appropriate:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ead.php?t=7224
There are also the three threads debating the impact of Osama Bin Laden's removal, for a wider perspective, although I have m' doubts Africa figured much.
For the moment let us leave aside the impact in Africa.
Are the AQ insurgencies based in Africa, currently mainly in the "badlands", amidst small isolated populations, with very limited access to capabilities which can target the 'Far Enemy', a 'clear & present danger' to the core interests of countries like Canada, France and the USA?
No IMHO.
Yes they can be an occasional danger, like the 'Underpants Bomber', although he is not a good example as his capability appears to be from the Yemen. Nor are the Somali pirates more than a painful nuisance to world shipping and I remain unconvinced Al-Shabab is "pulling the strings" of the pirates.
As the 'Far Enemy' currently faces far more significant threats to national and collective interests, which are notably economic and fiscal, their attention span and focus is nearer to home.
Terrorism in Africa - 2012 Predictions
Here are my predictions for terrorism in Africa in 2012 from my blog www.terrorisminafrica.com
The next twelve months will most likely see the LRA being snuffed out or reduced into a very small, yet no less violent, local threat in the CAR, but far off its course of destabilizing or overthrowing the Ugandan government.
The AQIM will not go much beyond their occasional abduction of foreigners, yet the MOJWA splitter group has threatened to step up jihadist operations in West Africa. They could well keep their word and become Africa’s newest terrorist threat. The deadly wild card here is the large number of Libyan weapons that have found their way into north Africa and the Sahel.
Al-Shabaab will continue to be kept somewhat in check in Somalia, but they could reach deep into Kenya or Uganda in an attempt to intimidate those countries’ or cause over reactions by them or the United States resulting on easier recruitment of Muslims within East Africa. As long as Somalia remains void of an effective central government, the more chance that al-Qaeda will use it for training and hiding out. If the 2012 election in Kenya turns violent as it did last time, it could be a distraction to role in Somalia.
Boko Haram will remain the most active terrorist group in Africa with its operations confined to Nigeria. Its operations may well ignite a widespread civil battle between Nigeria’s Christians and Muslims. The rumored involvement by the United States could become a reality if the oil rich Delta region falls into turmoil.
Good and terribly accurate post, KingJaja
AQ & Al-Shabaab - assessing the threat
This commentary on AQ's merger could fit in the Horn of Africa Non-piracy Somali thread, so will be copied there. Hat tip to FP Blog:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...erger?page=0,0
A good summary and ends with well made points:
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It's one thing to have a loaded gun; it's another to pull the trigger and safely walk away. Al-Shabab might elevate its status in the jihadi world by hitting an American target on U.S. soil, but in doing so it would risk an even harsher crackdown on its bases in Somalia.
But then, al-Shabab has earned one more dangerous distinction: It is the only jihadi organization ever to convince Americans -- at least four, so far -- to serve as suicide bombers. It would not be wise to count on al Qaeda's newest affiliate to act in its own self-interest.
Global Jihad Sustained Through Africa
A report by a RUSI analyst, Valentina Soria, that considers:
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Africa represents a fertile ground for a diminished ‘Al-Qa’ida-core’ to re-group,
re-energise and re-launch its mission of global jihad.
The Key Findings are:
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Recent attacks in Nigeria, coupled with ongoing insurgency in Somalia and current turmoil in Mali, underline that the jihadist challenge may be migrating to Somalia, Kenya, north Nigeria and the borderlands of some of the vast territories of West Africa.
a) As the central leadership of Al-Qa’ida is weakened and challenged, the terrorist movement is looking to partnerships in Saharan and Sub-Saharan Africa to re-group and re-energise itself
b) Despite greater co-operation, there seems to be an unresolved tension between transnational aims of Al-Qa’ida-core and the local grievances of African partners
c) Following the alliance with Al-Qa’ida-core, regional affiliates such as Al-Qa’ida in the Maghreb and Al-Shabaab have undergone similar patterns of strategic, tactical and propagandistic evolution
d) Nigeria’s Boko Haram is still focused on a local campaign, but
recent operational refinement and ability to stage deadly ‘spectaculars’ suggests disturbing connections with other regional terror groups
e) Links between Al-Qa’ida-core and some jihadist groups in Africa have been established over the last decade which vary in strategic and operational significance
f) A range of new challenges are possible as jihadism evolves and disperses into territories of ungoverned space across large stretches of the African continent. Among these are the potential for radicalisation and mobilisation of a new subset of British youth in the UK
The later has got the headlines in the UK. There is also a profile of Al-Shabaab in Somalia
Link:http://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/UKTA2.pdf