The hurrier you go, the behinder you get...
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Originally Posted by
JMA
You can say what you like about South Africa - I don't have an immature sensitivity over criticism of that nature which would lead to a knee jerk reaction.
Reactions aren't the problem, making ignorant statements with little basis other than a few random biases is the problem -- or would be to me. YMOV. ;)
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And you get it right all the time?
Nope. Only about 85-90% of the time do I get it right. That's ahead of the International Mean by 14.7 to 19.7 percentage points. Fear not, you may catch up when you get older... :D
Is the opposition 'high quality guys'?
Carl asked a few posts back:
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I knew Col. Q was doomed in Libya when I saw the type of people many who were opposing him were, doctors, small business men, grad students coming back from abroad, middle aged family men-guys who had a lot to live for and chose to risk it. Very high quality guys.
Does anybody know offhand if the same type of people are opposing Assad?
I have yet to see any reports of the Syrian diaspora returning home. I guess the diaspora is similar in skills to that of Libyans, a good number of them living in the UK for many years. Where does the Syrian diaspora live? I expect very small numbers in the UK, even fewer in the USA, more in France and the bulk are scattered in the oil-rich sheikh fiefdoms - that may not allow return.
There is a partial answer in this BBC report, from Damascus:
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Saab was in his mid-40s, a father of three children and an inspirational member of the peaceful protest movement in the suburbs of Damascus, they said. According to fellow activists, some of his family members had been victims of repression during the rule of President Bashar al-Assad's late father, Hafez, and had been forced to live abroad. After several years working as a construction worker in the Gulf to save money, Saab had returned to Syria 10 years ago, intent on building a comfortable life for his family.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19046521
Reflecting for a moment back to the start of the protests, what has happened to Deraa, where the protests started?
Secondly all Syrians knew the real nature of the regime and had few outlets to escape if they wanted to. I expect they had access to a variety of media sources and simply thought it was time for a change - eighteen months ago. Very quickly the brutality of the regime was clear, remember the child protester who was tortured, IIRC in Deraa and his body returned to his family.
Just give Kofi a chance ...
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Tragically, the spiral of violence in Syria is continuing,” Mr. Ban said in the statement. “The hand extended to turn away from violence in favor of dialogue and diplomacy — as spelled out in the six-point plan — has not been taken, even though it still remains the best hope for the people of Syria.”
Word of Mr. Annan’s resignation came as the United Nations General Assembly was preparing to vote on a resolution drafted by Saudi Arabia that demands that the Syrian government comply with his plan.
But the General Assembly resolution, which is scheduled for a vote on Friday, does not have the enforcement power of a Security Council measure, and has been viewed as largely a symbolic effort to embarrass Syria and its backers.
Major powers expressed regret over Mr. Annan’s resignation and acknowledged the difficulties of his assignment, but in doing so they appeared to commit the same kind of blame-laying he cited as a reason for quitting.
Jay Carney, the White House spokesman, said Mr. Annan’s resignation “highlights the failure in the United Nations Security Council of Russia and China to support meaningful resolutions against Assad that would hold Assad accountable for his failure to abide by the Annan plan.”
Russian news agencies quoted President Vladimir V. Putin as saying, “Kofi Annan is a very respectable person, a brilliant diplomat and a very decent man, so it’s really a shame.” At the same time, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a message posted on its Twitter account that it would vote against the General Assembly resolution on Syria, calling it unfairly biased against the Syrian government.
There was no immediate reaction to Mr. Annan’s departure from Mr. Assad or the array of Syrian opposition groups, some of which have always expressed doubts about Mr. Annan’s efforts.
But Louay Hussein, a Syrian writer and longtime opposition activist, said in an e-mail: “The responsibility of the failure of Mr. Annan in his mission is the responsibility of the international community, and not the Syrian parties to the conflict. It will have very negative consequences on the armed conflict in the country.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/03/wo...er=rss&emc=rss
Sadly, no one really wants this to work. They all have other agendas.
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“The bloodshed continues, most of all because of the Syrian government’s intransigence, and continuing refusal to implement the six-point plan, and also because of the escalating military campaign of the opposition — all of which is compounded by the disunity of the international community,” Annan said.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...rRX_story.html
No-Fly Zone: non-technical opinion
Dayuhan asked:
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Question for those more technically inclined: would it be possible to enforce a limited no-fly zone over, say, Aleppo and surroundings purely using SAM assets based in Turkey and AWACS cover in Turkish airspace? Of course that would be internationalizing the conflict...
I am not technically minded, so hopefully Entropy will be along shortly to add his expertise - and anyone else of course.
IIRC previous posts and other analysts have stated that without suppressing enemy aid defences (SEAD) the 'no-fly zone' option was unwise, even if the Syrian system was rather old-style, Soviet-built it still could kill. Removing SEAD is a technical matter:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suppres...y_Air_Defenses
Earlier in this crisis I was puzzled by the absence of an overt move of NATO AWACS to the region, based either in Turkey or the UK base on Cyprus, followed by a build-up of a capability to act. This would have been a diplomatic signal of concern and the possibility of being built-up to actual capability. Perhaps an Anglo-French-US carrier exercise too.
IMO the 'no-fly zone' could not be as suggested Aleppo and nearby, a quick look at the map suggests no easy boundaries; so we are left with a national 'no-fly' zone. Recalling the experience for many years with the two 'no-fly zones' in Iraq, they used a Parallel as the boundary, with regular overflights and occasional strikes on radar sites etc:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_no-fly_zones
Using Cyprus as a base, for NATO / US use, would pose a few issues, especially if Cyprus (not a NATO member, but in the EU) and or Turkey was none too keen. Nor should we overlook UK reluctance to do much more than diplomacy and "grandstanding".
A national 'no-fly zone' would require IMO access and support from Syria's neighbours. Lebanon made it quite clear even UN observers use of their airfield(s) was no-go; Iraq has its own reasons not to help and for Jordan, the consummate balancer, please don't ask.
Given the regional concerns over a possible Israeli / US strike on Iran, would any external SEAD campaign be a good thing, even AWACS activity could be challenged.
Quite quickly what appears to be an option gets more difficult and this may explain why it never gained traction.