The Battle for Pakistan By Bruce Riedel
He opens with:
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The struggle for control of Pakistan - soon to be the fifth most populous country in the world with the fifth largest nuclear arsenal - intensifies every day. The outcome is far from certain. The key player, Pakistan's army, seems dangerously ambivalent about which side should prevail: the jihadist Frankenstein it created or the democratically elected civilian government it despises.
Given his position as an adviser to the US government this is quite stark IMHO:
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The jihadist penetrations of the army raise persistent questions about the security of Pakistan's nukes. According to a WikiLeaked State Department cable, from September 2009, France's national security adviser Jean-David Levitte told the American Embassy in Paris that France believes it is not secure. Levitte is one of the most astute diplomats in the world today, and he is almost certainly right.
Link:http://www.realclearworld.com/articl...day-newsletter
Why this French diplomat would offer such a judgement eludes me. Yes, the French have an interest in Pakistan, IMHO behind two others. The French have some links to the Pakistani military, albeit mainly to the navy (submarines) and the air force (various Mirage types).
Pakistan and a new Taliban-run Afghanistan?
Carl,
Yes, I am sure the French are concerned at the loss of a Pakistani nuclear weapon or just the vital component parts. My surprise was the weight given to the French diplomat's views.
As for your theme:
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..If Taliban & Co. take Afghanistan, or even a substantial portion of it, wouldn't this be as bad for Pakistan as for anybody, if not worse?..
I would expect that the Pakistani Army / ISI have looked at that possibility and considered their options. There would be some irony if the Taliban re-asserted control over Southern Afghanistan, then offered sanctuary to the PTT and the Pakistani Army had to guard the Durand Line on a different scale.
From my "armchair" I do not see the PTT needs that much of a sanctuary, there are still large swathes of NWFP / FATA beyond effective state control, more importantly the PTT and allies have facilities in urban areas. Not to overlook parts of South Punjab, which are reported to host fundamentalist extremists.
Do the PTT want to challenge the Pakistani state in the lowlands or just evict them from the FATA? I don't know.
The other extremists pose the biggest danger to the Pakistani state, for example if the LeT leadership cannot maintain discipline. Only rarely are these factions dealt with bluntly by the Pakistani state. Quite a contrast to the PTT who have been, notably in the Swat Valley - not part of the FATA.
Can anyone control Pakistan's ISI spies?
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Pakistan's dreaded spy agency, the ISI, is back in the spotlight, accused of murdering journalist Saleem Shahzad. The agency's engagement with the media has become progressively more virulent as the "war on terror" has progressed. BBC Urdu editor Aamer Ahmed Khan asks whether anyone can bring the ISI under control.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13638478
US strike 'kills' key Pakistan militant Ilyas Kashmiri
The BBC are reporting his confirmed death:
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..a major psychological blow to al-Qaeda and the Taliban, and will also make it more difficult for wanted militant leaders to find safe places to go......He is widely believed to have masterminded an audacious attack on the Mehran naval airbase in Karachi last month...many would be led to believe the Pakistani intelligence operatives had a role in leading the Americans to Kashmiri..
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13653324
In tonight's BBC News the reporter stated Pakistan is claiming it's information led to the US drone strike.
His BBC obituary:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13655883
This indicates a link to the Mumbai attack following the Chicago trial testimony.
Seems that several national interests were served by this attack.
Pakistan spins PRC and is rejected!
A FP piece that puts the Sino-Pakistani relationship in a different context, notably over the port of Gwadar:
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State visits between friendly countries seldom produce surprises or unscripted moments, but the recent trip to China by top Pakistani officials managed to do just that.
Upon returning to Islamabad, the defense minister, Ahmed Mukhtar, made two eyebrow-raising announcements: first, that Beijing had agreed to take over operation of Gwadar port in Baluchistan, and, second, that he had invited the Chinese to build a naval base there. China's leaders, seemingly caught unaware by these statements, promptly denied them.
Which ends with:
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Pakistan remains a very important ally, but China has too much at stake to be dragged unwittingly into Islamabad's soap opera with Washington.
Link:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...pearl?page=0,0
"Militants Tipped Off Before Raids"
That is how the Denver Post headlined this story picked up from the Washington Post this morning.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...y.html?hpid=z1
The Washington Post headlined the same story "New Challenge for U.S.-Pakistan Ties."
The exact same story, about how the US gave Pakistan exact info and location of 2 bomb making factories in North and South Waziristan that turned out to have been recently evacuated when the Pak Army showed up, and yet radically different headlines. I guess the headline editor at the Washington Post is in with the political/military elite. The reporters not so much. The Denver Post editors, not at all.
The Denver Post headline accurately reflects the content of the story, catches your eye and invites you to read it. The Washington Post headline has nothing to do with the content of the story and is of such a nature as to cause people to skip it as just another in the long line of U.S.-Pakistan relationship stories. Fascinating.
The other thing is most of the story had to come from US officials who want to highlight the perfidy of the Pak Army-ISI. But the WaPo editors want to hide it. There must be a big fight going on inside the beltway right now about this.
With friends like these....
Breaking News Alert
The New York Times
Tuesday, June 14, 2011 -- 10:32 PM EDT
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Pakistan Arrests C.I.A. Informants Who Aided Bin Laden Raid
Pakistan’s top military spy agency has arrested some of the Pakistani informants who fed information to the Central Intelligence Agency in the months leading up to the raid that led to the death of Osama bin Laden, according to American officials.
Pakistan’s detention of five C.I.A. informants, including a Pakistani Army major who officials said copied the license plates of cars visiting Bin Laden’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in the weeks before the raid, is the latest evidence of the fractured relationship between the United States and Pakistan. It comes at a time when the Obama administration is seeking Pakistan’s support in brokering an endgame in the war in neighboring Afghanistan.
The fate of the C.I.A. informants arrested in Pakistan is unclear, but American officials said that the C.I.A. director, Leon E. Panetta, raised the issue when he travelled to Islamabad last week to meet with Pakistani military and intelligence officers.
Read More:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/15/wo...cy.html?emc=na
With friends like these....
Bill,
Thanks for posting that. It just shows that patience will be rewarded.
On the 4th May 2011 I noted a small detail in The Guardian's report on the OBL raid:
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Note the nearest neighbour's house was occupied by a Pakistani Army major.
The fuller quote from the article:
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But there was no sign of life from a nearby property, about 50 metres from Bin Laden's back wall, with a high perimeter wall and two watchtowers. Neighbours said it had been built three years ago by a man whose family has long owned property in the area. The nameplate read: Major Amir Aziz. Locals said he was a serving Pakistan army officer. Despite repeated rings on the doorbell, he refused to answer.
The latest article has:
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..including a Pakistani Army major who officials said copied the license plates of cars visiting Bin Laden’s compound..
If all true then it makes the point human sources have a vital role even when hi-tech techniques are available.
With friends like these....(amendment from Pakistan)
Not unexpectedly an official denial a Pakistani Army major was detained:
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The Pakistani army denied Wednesday that one of its majors was among a group of Pakistanis who Western officials say were arrested for feeding the CIA information before the American raid that killed Osama bin Laden.
Link:http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/cia_pakis...lzdGFuZGVuaQ--
Some difficult truths about Pakistan
Anatol Lieven summarises the Pakistan issue IMHO well:
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Pakistan is too often portrayed in flawed and reductive ways that flatten its complexity and offer misleading guidance to policy-makers. This makes it all the more important to acknowledge some difficult truths about the country..
Then:
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A fundamental political fact about Pakistan is that the state, whoever claims to lead it, is weak, and society in its various forms is immensely strong. Anyone or any group with the slightest power in society uses it (amongst other things) to plunder the state for patronage and favours, and to turn to their advantage the workings of the law and the bureaucracy. As a result, Pakistan has by far the lowest rates of revenue-collection (under 10% of GDP) in south Asia. This, far more than the military, is responsible for the state’s inability to invest in education, infrastructure and essential services; and what money is directed to these ends is far too often stolen by the elites.
Referring to the army's role and discipline:
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The only thing that can destroy this discipline and unity is if enough Pakistani soldiers are faced with moral and emotional pressures powerful enough to crack their discipline. The pressures would indeed have to be extreme: in fact, soldiers would have to be put in a position where their duty to defend Pakistan and their conscience and honour as Muslims clashed directly with their obedience to their commanders.
As far as I can see, the only thing that could bring that about as far as the army as a whole is concerned (rather than just some of its Pathan elements) is if the United States were to invade part of Pakistan, and the army command failed to give orders to resist this. Already, the perceived subservience of the Pakistani state to Washington’s demands has caused severe problems of morale in the armed forces.
Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/anatol-...n-hard-reality
We like you, well not that much, please go
Pakistani has asked, or expelled, the UK advisory team to the Frontier Corps; from the BBC:
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British military trainers working with security forces in Pakistan have been withdrawn at the request of the Pakistan government.
Or in The Daily Telegraph:
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...British military advisers sent to Pakistan to help in the fight against the Taliban and al-Qaeda have been expelled from the country..
Spin from the UK MoD:
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The UK has been asked to withdraw some of its training support teams on a temporary basis by the Pakistan Government in response to security concerns. We are providing training support at the invitation of the Pakistan Government and welcome their advice on these matters. The training teams will continue their own training and will be ready to re-deploy at the first possible opportunity.
Links:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-13923483and http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-Pakistan.html
Incidentally the photo on the Telegraph story is a classic pose.
Somali Pirates and the ISI!?
The following was posted on the Information Dissemination blog today. (http://www.informationdissemination.net/)
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People have long asked where Somali pirates are getting all of their good intelligence from. They seem to know where the easy to hit ships will be, by name and all. There is ample evidence that Somali pirates are not working with Iran and they also do not appear to work in coordination with any Al Qaeda affiliated groups. One of the biggest questions that has popped up as a result of several different events over the last several months is how much influence and apparent connectivity ISI Chief Ahmed Shuja Pasha has with Somali pirate leaders. My sense is the relationship between Somali pirates and the ISI is the next big pirate story on the verge of busting into the media.
Lord in heaven, what's next?
Somali Pirates and the ISI!?
Carl,
I know the world is full of surprises, but this suspected linkage is one and simply lacks credibility.
In an earlier post I referred to the open source and commercial sources for shipping information. I suspect that certain "middle men" are supplying the information for interception and Somalis are well known for their trading skills in the region - not piracy.
I recall the Somalis had no love for the Pakistanis during the early intervention; the killing of Pakistani soldiers pre-dated the 'Blackhawk Down' incident.
Where is the pay-off for ISI in such a trade?
Unauthorised leaking: a shock?
A twist to the latest round in open diplomacy, according to this opinion:http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/gl...11/07/05/leaks
