Syria in 2016 (January-March)

‏@AP
BREAKING: Russia warns the U.S. it might use force against those in Syria violating cease-fire.

Well in this case it'll be using force against itself, Hezbollah, Iranian/Iraqi militias & Assad forces

BUT WAIT this Russian threat is actually directed at Turkey and KSA....BUT WAIT...not so sure Russia wants to physically and actually attack Turkey as it has virtually no real combat strength to counter a land incursion much less a strong Turkish/KSA air force incursion.....BESIDES both the Turks and the Saudi's will argue they are going after IS WHICH Russia has basically failed to do in over six months.....

First Madaya & now Rastan. The new starvation crisis thanks to the Assad regime
http://en.eldorar.com/node/1803

Russia has totally failed under their own so called CoH to provide the agreed to amount of humanitarian aid under UN auspices....a KET cornerstone in the CoH pushed by Russia..

CrowBat...confirms what you have been saying for the last weeks......

Few days after Russia « withdrawal », it is becoming clearer that Russian intervention in #Syria greatly worsened Regime lack of manpower

Frustration grows due to the huge losses of pro-Regime forces past months & military stalemate witnessed since 1 month on #Latakia front

On #Palmyra front, Regime units as Suqur al-Sahara & Tiger forces, central in Regime media propaganda, appear to be largely insignificant

Even #Hezbollah is taking heavy losses in #Palmyra despite relentless Regime/Ru bombings & reports Shia militias called in reinforcements

For 1st time since Ru campaign, a strategic window is opening 4 Rebels in N.Syria as pro-Regime forces deadlocked on #Palmyra front 4long

Coupled with comments I posted yesterday about the losses of over 200 being brought back to the Assad supporting communities.....

Dozens of Jaish al-Tahrir fighters reached Jebal Turkman (#Latakia) 2 reinforce Rebel lines.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RzY-G2OqNY …

Good example by #Ahrar_al_Sham of own logistics: food supply on frontlines in #Hama. #Syria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQgxyLfG6NY …

GoPro footage (Suqur al-Jebal) of liberation of al-Sakhr (N. #Hama)
Note the BMP slat armor
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GYWWr9KZaA …

Last defense is hill with Medieval Castle at #Palmyra gates. Its seizure will inevitably lead to fall of the city.

Most difficult move in #Palmyra Battle is 2 reach city itself bcz main road overlooked by mountains ideal 4 ambushes

Pro-Regime forces taking heavy toll in #Palmyra battle: reports of several Russian soldiers & over 70 #Hezbollah fighters killed last days.

Kuwait has started deporting ppl who have links to Hezbollah. This should have happened a lot sooner...

Wow Russian propaganda caught out again......
Syrian rebel group deny bs claim that Russian delegation visited Ghouta for reconciliation talks lol
http://en.eldorar.com/node/1797

U.S. is being seen as taking sides in sectarian disputes and leading #Syria to partition, says @TheActualAmmar
http://bit.ly/1LzrNlW

An anti-Assad, #FSA-style protest in East Ghouta as seen from a drone.
http://goo.gl/KYGUlU

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

TURKMEN RECEIVE RUSSIAN ANTI-TANK WEAPONS
http://youtu.be/W_mT1Isq14s?a
http://fb.me/PKuQ30vB

Former envoy Khalilzad says US knew Soleimani entering Baghdad Green Zone in '06 to push #Iraqi PM to stand down.
http://on.wsj.com/1LvFDG9
I knew in 2006 of these "rumors" and was surprised that they were never followed up on by the US IC....nor was the closeness of the KH to IRGC ever really thoroughly analyzed especially in light of the IRGC smuggling of EFP IED parts into Iraq.....

We were so focused on the Sunni insurgency but never realized and or wanted to realize the Shia could be just as jihadist as the Sunni's....AND even until 2010 we never fully wanted to analyze the Iranian "takeover" of Iraq....

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In other words, U.S. indirectly cooperated with #Iran in installing Maliki in 2006, same in 2010 to keep him in, and same in 2014 to get rid

Muhanad Seloom ‎@M_Seloom
Another MP confirms: Hizbollah militia in #Iraq illegally holds 1400 Sunnis in its prisons
http://www.alsumaria.tv/news/163388/alsumaria-news/ar …

Just as Assad holds over 200K Sunni's in his prisons...and yet the western MSM does not talk about it.....interesting is it not????

Daraa: #ISIS captured town of #Tasil and village of #Adaman from #Syria|n rebel groups

Russian Syrian Express headed the wrong way for a so called Putin "declared withdrawal"......????

FLOT's Landing ship 158 Tsezar Kunikov southbound on Bosphorus, contributing to the "reverse withdrawal" from Syria

Withdrawal Syria continues but the wrong direction. Heavily-laden #ВМФ #ЧФ BSF 158 Tsezar Kunikov transits Bosphorus

Appears Putin was lying again.........

Russia can tell you who attacks #Assad forces S-W of #Aleppo.
But not who is N-E of it.
Protip: Starts with I ...

Not) funny:
#Russia acknowledges that #Assad is not fighting "Nusra" but the #FSA in Latakia.

AFP news agency Verified account 
‏@AFP
#BREAKING Russia slams US for 'unacceptable' delay on Syria ceasefire enforcement

Assad and #Russia has violated the ceasefire multiple times. Now they start complaining when rebels start shooting back.

MFA Russia
✔ ‎@mfa_russia Common #ISSG response procrastination is dangerous. In this context, Russia doesn’t rule out unilateral steps against Syrian truce violators

BUT WAIT notice Russia does not once single out Assad and his Shia mercenaries as being responsible for their truce violations....

Russia is attempting to force the enforcement of the CoH onto the US....
MFA Russia
✔ ‎@mfa_russia Russia is interested in devising the procedure of common #ISSG response to ceasefire violations in #Syria

BreakingNews
#FSA launches large-scale offensive vs. #ISIS-offshoot in S-W #Daraa province.

Russia's Effort to Prevent Terrorism at Sochi Games Backfiring Now in Middle East & Caucasus
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com...rorism-at.html …

Yury Barmin
‏@yurybarmin
Another question is how Russia will respond to violations if it doesn't have ground forces in Syria? Airstrikes aren't too precise for this

Yury Barmin ‏@yurybarmin
Interestingly, Russia made the warning publicly despite the fact that John Kerry is coming to Moscow tonight.

Note neither Assad, nor Russia, nor Israel, nor the US coalition ever targeted #ISIS #LSY de facto safe Zone bordering Jor/ISR..
Still don't understand how LSY are still breathing in the south.
Oh, I forgot the Jordanian/US backed MoC were banned from fighting them

@khalidi_4_sham their number doesn't even reach a 1000. Southern Front has around 25k fighters but they haven't even attempted to fight them

27 regime fighters have been killed and 25 wounded accidently in a Russian airstrike near Palmyra

Ahrar Sappers are seen here planting Victim Operated Pressure plate (?) #IED's.
https://youtu.be/cpxGJLUXcH0

Most battles in Syria are slow motion affairs. Characterized by reliance on firepower and low troop densities.

"The costs of #Obama’s #Syria policy are apparent to everyone but him"
http://wpo.st/uRbN1

Exclusive. Rebels (#FSA Al Nukhbat brigade) captured 5 locations in Deir Ezor province #Syria, more below :

Exclusive: #Syria-n Opposition ready deploy Humvee vehicles, after they clear #ISIS from #Jordan border, attack soon

Daesh affiliated Shuhada Yarmouk has occupied the town of Tasil in southern #Daraa, #FSA forces are mobilising for a counter attack

Russia announces plan for unilateral military action vs. ceasefire violations from tomorrow. Rising tension w. US:

Foreign Affairs ‏@ForeignAffairs
Syria is now home to the largest, most capable concentration of Sunni jihadists in the world
http://ow.ly/ZJ1u0

Heavy fighting between 1) pro-#ISIS militants & 2) FSA, Ahrar & Nusra in #Deraa. Nusra's Tariq al-Musalama killed:

Odd to talk about #IS's genocide and stay silent on five years of systematic killing by #Assad
http://bit.ly/1S1kd09

Meanwhile …
#Nasrallah has just said that when #Hizballah starts the next war with #Israel they reserve the right to hit nuke facilities.

Pro-Assad media: #Iran has sent the Guard Corps and Afghan Shi'i jihadists to reconquer Palmyra from IS.
http://bit.ly/1RwfqDx

Russia Steps up Airstrikes as #Syrian Army Prepares for Final Assault on Palmyra...
http://russia.trendolizer.com/2016/0...n-palmyra.html …

Friendly-fire in Palmyra kills 17 Syrian Marines
http://bit.ly/1pvFUi0

IS claim the kill by huge #SVBIED detonation while other reports suggest a defectuous #Russian airstrike.

This Russian ugly war
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o--7XlQAp8M …
In Ukraine, in Syria. With destroyed schools, hospitals, killed children

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

CrowBat...confirms what you have been saying for the last weeks......

Few days after Russia « withdrawal », it is becoming clearer that Russian intervention in #Syria greatly worsened Regime lack of manpower

Frustration grows due to the huge losses of pro-Regime forces past months & military stalemate witnessed since 1 month on #Latakia front

On #Palmyra front, Regime units as Suqur al-Sahara & Tiger forces, central in Regime media propaganda, appear to be largely insignificant

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The 'regime' - read: IRGC & Russians - have re-deployed the entire '3rd Division' from NE Lattakia to Palmyra front.

That means, they're now concentrating following forces there:
- 1 brigade Hezbollah/Lebanon (at least 1, possibly more)
- Liwa Dir as-Sahel (Coastal Shield Brigade, these 'Syrian Marines' one can read about on Twitter; this is actually an all-Alawite militia)
- Liwa Suqour as-Sahra (Desert Hawks Brigade, BPM's Sunni loyalist militia)
- Liwa Fatimioun (IRGC's Afghan Hazara mercenaries)
- Liwa Haydareyen (IRGC regulars and Basiji)
- Tiger Force (BPM's Sunni loyalist PMC)
- Liwa al-Qods al-Filistini (PFLP-GQ, Palestinians)
+ a bunch of different gangs of Iraqi Shi'a Jihadists.

...not to forget at least one battalion and several artillery batteries of Russian Army...

As usually, absolutely no trace of 'SAA' wide and far - and after two years of ever more of such situations, I doubt we'll ever see it again.

Quote:

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Coupled with comments I posted yesterday about the losses of over 200 being brought back to the Assad supporting communities.....

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Keep in mind: that was just 200 for one minor town: over 500 were delivered to Tartous, more than 1000 to Lattakia... it seems the regime was keeping all of its casualties back in order to keep spirits high for the last six months: now it's 'pay time' for its own loyalists...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

Quote:

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Yury Barmin
‏@yurybarmin
Another question is how Russia will respond to violations if it doesn't have ground forces in Syria? Airstrikes aren't too precise for this

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Ah, the air strikes aren't precise... now how comes...?

Anyway: Russia has at least 10 battalions of its troops deployed in Syria, meanwhile.

CrowBat...I understand the military important of Palmyra for IS as the connecting point between Iraqi and Syrian positions but why is Assad and Putin so determined to take it at the cost of destroying the fighting morale of what ground forces they have left??

Russian Syria Express shows no slacking due to a so called Putin withdrawal....

FLOT's Ropucha's 127 Minsk & 031 A.Otrakovsky transiting northbound towards Russia, returning from Syria.

Water line suggests Otrakovsky is heavier than Minsk. Pretty close to it's 4080tons displacement. Minsk, not at all.

Since rumored attacks on Ru ships, they were transiting 1by1. Today is the first tandem transit since then.

ВМФ #ЧФ BSF 158 Tsezar Kunikov gets special attention from Turkish Navy: @Sikorsky SH-60 Seahawk observes the LST

Ropucha Class Large Landing Craft S.Kunikov didn't look empty at all. In fact pretty close to full waterline.

FLOT's Landing ship 158 Tsezar Kunikov southbound on Bosphorus, contributing to the "reverse withdrawal" from Syria