Syria in 2016 (January-March)

And that totally successful Obama Syrian strategy is not the same exact strategy as Putin is pushing....come on now...it really is.....

Kerry rejected that he was pressuring the HNC into a unilateral compromise with no reciprocal Russian movements.......yes he certainly did.

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia

Sergey Lavrov & John Kerry called on UN's Special Envoy to announce the start date of intra-Syrian negotiations http://sputniknews.com/world/2016012...rry-date-intra... …

Kerry really does seem to believe the Sunni Front States and the HNC "trusts" the US........really......????

WHAT about the fulfilment of the three UNSC resolutions that both the US/Russia supported and have utterly failed to implement????

NOTICE Lavrov mentioned nothing about them did he......?

NOTICE the drumbeat against the Syrian group JaN which a DC think tank now claims is a far greater threat than IS.....that is what I like about US media and US think tanks....maybe just maybe they need to actually talk to the HNC and or Sham or JaI to get their view of the fellow anti Assad fighting group.

Their views might be a tad different than those of a DC think tank.......

Experts warn that the US is underestimating a greater jihadist threat than ISIS
http://read.bi/1ZYGpBT

Last time I checked JaN has never uttered a single threat against the US nor carried out any attack agains the West besides in some aspects Russia is a far greater existential threat to the US than JaN will ever be.......

SyAA T-72 driver training variant, all onboard!
pic.twitter.com/e1GBMlyxVe
pic.twitter.com/GTSOmO7I2X

So is Obama/Kerry throwing the Syrians under the bus in order to get a compromise with Putin at all costs for his legacy OR to set a new global "spheres of influence into play or what Putin has basically been wanting since 2008 "a new Yalta"..........????

INDICATOR: the suddenly announced unrestricted Russian SOFA for Syrian signed in August 2015 long before the RuAF arrived in Syria....NOTICE once it was announced not a single comment from Obama and Kerry....

This is coming out of the ME comments....and confirms US pressure on the anti Assad forces in the face of their constant statements that they support them......

Quote:

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Rebel sources in Latakia tell me TOW missile supply has been almost completely cut off in January as a result of US pressure pre-Geneva.

Entirely possible that Russian de-escalation in Ukraine may lead to face-saving compromises for it in Syria

That's basically what the rebels believe.

I suspect a result of a more complicated calculation about the final borders between each side's sphere of influence

How long until an upset CIA agent spills the beans on this?

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So has Kerry now been basically publicly lying about his "no pressure"...??

One of the best short comments on Putin by the former DoD Russian expert who after attempting to be heard by Obama and his NSC simply gave up and left DoD.....

http://www.politico.com/magazine/sto...#ixzz3yGSsbzaq

Actually in some aspects repeats much of what I have been commenting here for a long number of months but I go a step further and view Putin in his current form an existential threat to the US simply because he in believing his own coolaid is willing to use nuclear weapons.

Quote:

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Madam/Mr. President-to-be-elected, you will enter office facing Vladimir Putin’s Russia as a potential geostrategic threat to the United States. You will need a strategy to counter and resist this threat, which is only growing. At the moment, Putin appears to be closer to prevailing in Syria and holding steady in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. His use of force to protect despots and to render governments hostage to Moscow’s will is working to some extent, as Joint Chiefs Chairman Joseph Dunford tacitly acknowledged last week when he told reporters that because of Russia’s military intervention in Syria, the Assad regime “is in a better place” ahead of scheduled peace talks in Geneva this week. Putin may have helped Assad regain control of enough of Syria to potentially retain power and in Eastern Europe the states with uninvited Russian forces continue to experience limits on their territorial and political sovereignty.

What precisely is the threat from Russia? Putin’s two main objectives—to keep himself in power and to rebuild Russia as a great power—do not in themselves endanger U.S. national interests. The threat lies in the fact that Putin is trying to achieve his goals by rewriting international rules and norms that are critical to U.S. security. Specifically, he seeks to inaugurate a new international order that permits human rights abuses by despotic leaders and invasion, occupation and political subversion of sovereign states. Not to mention assassination: Only last week, a British inquiry led by retired high court judge Robert Owen found that the murder of former FSB agent Alexander Litvinenko in 2006 was “probably” directed by the Russian president.

To permit this behavior to go unchallenged would mean the end of the post-World War II Westphalian, post- Cold War world order, which simultaneously enshrined territorial state sovereignty and human and minority rights. And we certainly can't let Russia weaken or destroy NATO, our most effective operational alliance, and our solidarity with Europe our biggest trading partner.

If Russia wins its aims outright—Ukraine remains ungovernable and territories in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova remain occupied, and Assad remains in power—Putin’s Kremlin will be emboldened to use military force again and again to achieve its foreign (and domestic) policy objectives. Your administration will need to do more with our allies and partners to prevent a resolution to ongoing or “frozen” conflicts that runs counter to the wishes of the people of those countries. This is not to say that we should not compromise in order to put an end to conflict and human suffering (especially in Syria), but we must structure our compromises so that they contain the path to, or at least, the possibility for future exercise of democratic political and territorial sovereignty.

The United States must counter and resist Russia’s actions though a combination of deterrence, strengthening our allies and partners and communicating the truth about the Kremlin’s actions to the international community. Your administration must strive to convince Russia that neo-Soviet adventurism on its periphery will not advance its interests; Russia cannot be allowed to prevail in Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova, where its military occupations have led to so-called frozen conflicts that serve as a Russian veto on the policies of those countries. Russia can have influence on those countries, but it should be based on mutual sovereign agreement, not coercion.

This is a propitious moment to shift into a more forward-leaning posture. Despite Moscow’s apparent strength on the world stage, it is dealing from economic weakness. The international sanctions have hurt—last April Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said they had cost Russia $26.7 billion in 2014 and he expected that to rise to $80 billion by the end of 2015. But the real leverage the United States and our allies have is owed to the collapse of oil prices. Over half of Russian government revenues are derived from oil and gas. The Russian government budget for 2016 was predicated on an oil price of $50 per barrel, but the price is now hovering at about $30 a barrel and may fall further. The World Bank estimates that Russian GDP will continue shrinking by 0.7 percent in 2016.

Until now, Russian officials have insisted that the military budget takes priority and will not suffer significant cuts. But if Russia keeps up its military operations in Syria, Ukraine and elsewhere, the accumulating costs may provide ammunition to Russian economists and other officials who are wary of, if not opposed to, the new Russian military adventurism. And if the economic situation worsens for the average Russian due to inflation and the falling value of the ruble, resource realities could, over time, rein in Russian military operations and lead Russia to a more accommodating policy. Former Russian Economic Minister Alexei Kudrin recently reminded Russians that the cost of supporting Crimea and the separatists in eastern Ukraine are far greater than military operations in Syria; these costs include infrastructure, and social support and are estimated to run into billions of dollars.

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Iran already is fighting in Syria, and shipping & funding Shia fighters in Iraq & Yemen. How much wider can Iran drive the Sunni Shia conflict?.

Right now it controls four Arab capitals.....Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen and Iran wants the KS to "lower tensions".....?

Deraa: 4 Assad forces killed & 2 captured in an ambush minutes ago

Aleppo: Rebels have to get their act together. 7 Ahrar fighters killed in a carbomb 4 of which were leaders in movement

Aleppo: Carbomb goes of in Sakri during a funeral for Ahrar fighter. Most likely a sleeper cell operating

Damascus: Latest Rebel gains in Al Marj
http://goo.gl/aXaeD6

East Ghouta: Assad regime bulldozer destroyed & 4 of their forces also killed in rebel attack

Qamishli: Kurdish fighters say they have evidence Assads NDF carried out car-bombing against them
http://fb.me/4Fidlbkrc

Hezbollah breaks the agreement in Madaya & now asking residents to abandon their homes, new form of ethnic cleansing
http://baladi-news.com/%D9%85%D9%82%...87%D9%85/3135/ …

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

One of the main JaI negotiators (Alloush..whose brother was recently assassinated for leading JaI)for Geneva stated after the Kerry threats and his statement was interesting but largely overlooked by US MSM and Kerry as well..."we will see how the next few days develop.....might be a surprise to all".

THEN this four hours ago came across Twitter....

Preparation is underway for a major joint Saudi-Pakistani-Egyptian military exercise, code named Northern thunder, in the north of KSA.

THEN this comment three hours ago....

Whenever sectarianism enters a country it destroys it. Iran is working hard to spread this disease because it helps its expansionist policy.

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Interesting move as this releases the KSA troops that have been stationed their and they are position to move towards the Yemen KSA border regions.

Saudi: Egyptian & Pakistani forces have reached northern Saudi to protect borders with Iraq

So now Iran has to counter move as the Arab Sunni units could in theory "threaten Iraq and Yemen"...do they pull IRGC troops and or Iraqi Shia militias into the border areas...yes or no......???

SCD @SyriaCivilDef recovered 6martyrs
20+wounded victims of #Russia airstrks on #Tarmanin city
#Aleppo #Syria JAN25

Iraqi Shi'a militia Liwa Assad Allah al-Ghalib video of ops in Latakia: note Suqur al-Sahara' armpatches:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

Russian Express is on the move again.....

XX-TK Antwerp, X-Alican Deval, currently Dvinitsa 50, 2015 addition to #SyriaExpress is en route to #Tartus #Syria

Russian soldiers and sailors on Dvinitsa-50: Cargo vessel transited southbound Bosphorus en route to #Tartus #Syria

ВМФ Naval Auxiliary Fleet cargo ship Dvinitsa 50 carried six 20ft ISO containers above the deck

This is the fourth Syrian deployment for #ВМФ cargo vessel Dvinitsa-50 since it was purchased early October 2015

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2 More ships, Novocherkassk and Yamal of FLOT crossed the bosphorus southboumd, en route to syria
pic.twitter.com/gofPK0EwZS

ВМФ #ЧФ BSF Ropucha class LST Novocherkassk transits southbound Bosphorus en route to #Tartus #Syria
pic.twitter.com/NP0Xki9MJR

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

And that totally successful Obama Syrian strategy is not the same exact strategy as Putin is pushing....come on now...it really is.....

Kerry rejected that he was pressuring the HNC into a unilateral compromise with no reciprocal Russian movements.......yes he certainly did.

MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia

Sergey Lavrov & John Kerry called on UN's Special Envoy to announce the start date of intra-Syrian negotiations http://sputniknews.com/world/2016012...rry-date-intra... …

Kerry really does seem to believe the Sunni Front States and the HNC "trusts" the US........really......????

WHAT about the fulfilment of the three UNSC resolutions that both the US/Russia supported and have utterly failed to implement????

NOTICE Lavrov mentioned nothing about them did he......?

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Wow...UN gets faster when threatened but still cannot deliver aid to Sunni besieged towns that are being starved into submission by Hezbollah and Assad/Putin......

UN special envoy de Mistura says Syrian proximity talks to start on Jan 29th. Says talks will last 6 months.

Still though no formal acceptance of the invitations by the HNC........Turkey and or the KSA.....

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

Interesting move as this releases the KSA troops that have been stationed their and they are position to move towards the Yemen KSA border regions.

Saudi: Egyptian & Pakistani forces have reached northern Saudi to protect borders with Iraq

So now Iran has to counter move as the Arab Sunni units could in theory "threaten Iraq and Yemen"...do they pull IRGC troops and or Iraqi Shia militias into the border areas...yes or no......???

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I think you will find there was a similar exercise one or two years ago, in the same area. Perhaps it is just a repeat? Alas I cannot readily find the post with the news.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by davidbfpo

I think you will find there was a similar exercise one or two years ago, in the same area. Perhaps it is just a repeat? Alas I cannot readily find the post with the news.

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David ----there was but take this one in the context of the recent Pakistani statement that they will always come to the assistance of the KSA as a Sunni nation.....then watch closely the recent Pakistani military moves on the Iranian border....there has been some and it is not so subtle that the Iranians have not noticed.....this places Sunni armies on two Iranian border fronts along with the ongoing internal Kurdish unrest that has resulted in an extremely high number of Kurds being executed along with MEQ operations that have resumed.

This might just be the reason the Iranian FM released a statement that the KSA should reduce the tensions....the Iranians are gereat at agitating BUT this time I am sensing they are seriously afraid open war might just break out as they have annnounced the arrests of over 100 for burning the KSA Embassy one of whom is a firebrand Shia mid range cleric ...some say as a scapgoat excuse.......will be interesting as he has a moderate following inside Iran and Iraq....

Regarldess of sanctions being lifted the drain on the Iranian Shia mercenary army inside Syria is costing them a bundle and their so called oil earnings...they have been offerring on crude contracts oil at 20 to 22 USDs.

THAT is the reason Putin is racing to get some kind of solution in place to lower war costs for both him and the IRGC.....

Deraa: Syrian Rebels capture 1 of 8 Haraqat Muthanna Headquarters

There's a lot of ASSadists infiltrating in many liberated neighborhoods and committing crimes against civilians and opposition groups..

SIG : #Russia Bombed 25 Schools since Start of Its Aggression Last September
http://ow.ly/3yVOyl

Bab_alHawa hospital confirmed 6martyrs(3 children) victims of #Russia airstrikes on #Tarmanin
#Idlib #Syria JAN25

SAA helicopters dropped barrel bombs on Bashkoy village
Aleppo cs Syria JAN 25

Russia warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting Hayan & Rytan towns
Aleppo cs Syria JAN 25

Russia warplanes carried out airstrikes targeting Kharita and Al-Hawayj towns in western Deir Ezzor countryside Syria JAN 25

No, Kerry is perfecting the art of 'Leading from behind'. It's now 'Leading from behind Iran'. :)
https://twitter.com/abusamy99/status/691481889689997312 …

#Reports
Reinforced #Assad forces take most of Sheikh Miskeen under 33 Russian airstrikes (just today) while undersupplied rebels withdraw.

#Footage
Another day of #RussianAirstrikes by Su-34 in #SheikhMaskin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcR_RlBU-Rk …
#Daraa #Syria

Activists report decision to let Assad win the war - at least in the south - was not just met in Moscow but also in Washington

Obama desperately trying to impose a facade resolution to Syrian conflict before his term ends for another chapter to write in his biography

Biden calls PKK a terrorist group. Meanwhile, U.S. arms YPG, which is just PKK on the other side of the border
http://news.yahoo.com/biden-says-pkk...130758983.html

If #Iraq is suffering in the fight against ISIS due to manpower shortages then whats with sectarian Iraqis in Syria?

Will not post the corresponding video to this..brutal and where is the voice of the US...lost somehow behind Putin's highly successful Syrian strategy......

Sectarian Shia militants abusing & subsequently executing a 13 year old sunni child.
#Iraq
Diayala area is where this video was taken by a Shia militant via Smartphone.....by the way they were carrying US weapons.....

Simply amazing that more Sunnis are not flooding into the arms of IS...

Not exactly sure how much longer the KSA, Turkey and Pakistan will remain quiet over the unending videos coming out ot the ME depiciting Shia militia torturing, killing and otherwsie committing war crimes on the Sunni populations in both Iraq and Syria.......

Syria: local sources report #Russia'n warplanes bombarded Mare' with cluster munition, main rebel defense line against #Daesh

Reports that 400 #FSA militants launched a counter attack on army districts in #SheikhMiskeen #Daraa.

Deir Ezzor: Assad regime commandeer Yasin Mohamed Hamud, killed by ISIS pic.twitter.com/PKw9Xmp5xX

Syria oppo coalition head, Khaled Khoja says: "Kerry..has long been delivering messages similar to those drafted by Iran & Russia". Trouble.

Turkey has previously announced they will not attend the Geneva talks if Salih Muslim attends as they view him a member of the PKK...which is the US supported YPG on the Syrian side..

SYRIA: Unconfirmed reports that Salih Muslim is on his way to Geneva to take part in peace talks.

US Envoy 4 #Syria M. Ratney tells @alhayatdaily in Exclusive tom.: Lot of Reports on #Kerry meeting w Opposition Not True+Mischarcterization

This is a strange comment as MOST Syrians can and do speak English well and the US always uses Interpreters.....SO how could Kerry have been so misunderstood ........

US Envoy on #Syria tells Al-Hayat :US Sees No Role for #Assad in #Syria future.Delegation from Riyadh meeting's Representative of Opposition

Sounds like they did fully understand Kerry ..........

Syria oppo coalition head, Khaled Khoja says: "Kerry..has long been delivering messages similar to those drafted by Iran & Russia". Trouble.

EX DEFENSE SECRETARY: Obama hurt US credibility after Syria crossed his ‘red line'
http://read.bi/1TkiZlf
pic.twitter.com/zqhHMnGNqS

BUT WAIT don't we have a highly successful Syrian strategy hard at work...???

Cited in part:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

David ----there was but take this one in the context of the recent Pakistani statement that they will always come to the assistance of the KSA as a Sunni nation...

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Pakistan has declined to join the broad alliance announced pre-Xmas by Saudi Arabia and an earlier request for their military support over the conflict, which became a war with the Houthi and allies in the Yemen. I'd hardly call that 'always come to the assistance of the KSA'.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09

[B]160 civilians killed in Deir Ezzor by Russians over the weekend! Where's the western outrage?!

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...nowhere: this is now Daesh-held area and thus all the locals are 'terrorists'...

... so much so, it doesn't matter if Russians don't have trace of clue whom are they bombing there.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mwe12

...There is no public support to go ride to the rescue of Islamist groups in Syria/the handful of secular pro-democracy people....

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...yup, and that's so precisely because people are so '100% sure' about that illusion that all these are 'Islamist groups' and there is 'only a handful of secular pro-democracy people'...

...and knowing the way Syrians are (piss-poor, stubborn, and surely not ready to go lobbying anybody anywhere), that's going to remain that way, 'forever'.

Therefore: forget all the 'Vienna talks'. It's going to be plenty of empty babbling in complete disregard for people of Syria.