China's North Korea Debate: Redrawing the Red Line
A fascinating article from 'The Diplomat' which is sub-titled:
Quote:
What a public feud between two academics tells us about Beijing’s approach to North Korea.
(Near the end) The dispute between Jia and Zhu is revealing in that it suggests that the once red line of what is acceptable to say or not to say has been steadily redrawn, allowing a broader public debate over China’s North Korean policy.
Link:https://thediplomat.com/2017/11/chin...-the-red-line/
Meanwhile, trolling the NorKs
Quote:
South Korea is making sure North Korea doesn’t forget about the regime’s soldier who defected to the South in a daring escape earlier this month -- by blasting updates about the defector’s health through its military’s loudspeakers at the Demilitarized Zone, a report said on Sunday.
South Korean troops broadcasted an update on Sunday about the North Korean soldier’s “nutritive conditions,” taking a hit at the Hermit Kingdom’s alleged health issues, Yonhap News Agency reported. The broadcasts are reportedly so loud that people within 12.4 miles from the DMZ are able to hear it.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/11...port-says.html
For all you little Minnions making up briefing slides
Another way of looking at North Korea
A short (10 mins) MNSBC news report:
Quote:
Richard Engel visits The Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, where academics use publicly available maps and media, and a lot of creative problem solving, to assess North Korea's progress toward nuclear weapon capability
Link:https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/...ist=associated
Quite interesting use of open sources and crowd sourcing. Their website is:https://www.nonproliferation.org/about-2/
The professor is none other than Jeffrey Lewis, who is Arms Control Wonk:https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/ and a respected SME. His short bio:https://www.nonproliferation.org/experts/jeffrey-lewis/
Using UCAVs to shoot down North Korean ICBMs
From Garwin and Postal at FAS: https://fas.org/rlg/airborne.pdf
Quote:
Summary:
- The DPRK has demonstrated missiles with near-ICBM range and tested underground nuclear or thermonuclear explosives of yield estimated to be 100 or even 250 kilotons—comparable in yield to many of the current U.S. strategic warheads.
- Although there is not evidence that the DPRK has mastered the technology of a ruggedized warhead and reentry vehicle that would survive the 60 G deceleration and heating of atmospheric reentry at ICBM range, they could do so in time. It is also not clear that any of the DPRK’s nuclear weapons can yet be carried to ICBM range, but that also is only a matter of time.
- We sketch here an "Airborne Patrol System to Destroy DPRK ICBMs in Powered Flight" incorporating the well established MQ-9 Reaper (Predator B) remotely piloted aircraft (RPA), The Big Wing version of the MQ-9 has a loiter time of some 37 hours at 500 miles from itsairbase in South Korea or Japan, carrying two Boost-Phase Intercept missiles assembled of available rocket motors, e.g., from Orbital ATK.
- A two-stage rocket would provide 4 km/s, with a 75 or 55 kg homing payload providing an additional 2.0 or 1.5 km/s divert velocity, and carrying a 25 kg seeker that would home optically on the booster flame and the ICBM’s hard body.
- All of the technologies needed to implement the proposed system are proven and no new technologies are needed to realize the system .
- The baseline system could technically be deployed in 2020, and would be designed to handle up to 5 simultaneous ICBM launches.
- The potential value of this system could be to quickly create an incentive for North Korea to take diplomatic negotiations seriously and to destroy North Korean ICBMs if they are launched at the continental United States.
- The proposed Airborne Patrol System could be a “first-step system” that can be constantly improved over time. For example, we have analyzed the system assuming that interceptors have a top speed of 4 km/s with a 25 kg seeker. We believe that faster, or lighter and smaller interceptors can be built that would increase the firepower of the system and possibly its capability against somewhat shorter range ballistic missiles like the Nodong – which poses a threat to Japan.
- Since the Airborne Patrol System would be based on the use of drones that would loiter outside of North Korean airspace, the electronic countermeasures needed to defeat distant surface-to-air missile defenses would be easy to implement because of the long-range between the drones and the air-defense radars.
- The availability of relatively inexpensive high-payload long-endurance drones will also improve, along with the electronic countermeasures
- systems to protect them.