To CrowBat RE: Israeli Strike
What say you to the contention that 2 Israeli fighters fired 8 missiles (Popeyes or Delilahs?), of which 3-5 were shot down by Syrian air defenses?
Russia requests to use Iranian airbases again...
From Babak Taghvaee (https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/st...85568260804608):
- Russia has asked Iran to provide the Russian Air Force with access to the IRIAF's 3rd Tactical Fighter Base in Hamedan to deploy heavy bombers and tankers, and to use it as a refueling base for fighter jets deployed over Syria
- Earlier in August 2016, the RuAF was permitted to deploy 8 Su-34 fighters and 4 Tu-22M3 bombers Hamedan, but after the Russians deliberately leaked pictures of their bombers in the base, Iran forced them to leave
- It is possible that Iran will refuse Russia access to Hamedan, but may offer the 5th Tactical Fighter Base at Omidiyeh again
- The motivation behind Russia's request is concern that Russian aircraft may need to evacuate Hmeimim Air Base in the event of US-led airstrikes on Syria
- This information comes from a "valid" source in the IRIAF, according to Taghvaee
The Israeli Airstrike on Tiyas
Also from Babak Taghvaee:
- Israeli F-15Is used Delilah cruise missiles to target the maintenance hangars of the Syrian Arab AF's Tiyas Air Base
- One was being used for the repair of Su-24MK2s of the SyAAF's 819th Fighter Squadron
- The other hangar was being used by the IRCG's Aerospace Force (IRGCAF), which was probably the target of the Israeli strike
See links for images of the damage to Tiyas:
US considering 8 possible targets in Syria
From CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/12/trum...ly-soon.html):
Quote:
President Donald Trump said Thursday that he would meet with Defense Secretary James Mattis and Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff – and that a decision on whether the U.S. military will respond to alleged Syrian chemical attacks will be made "fairly soon."
A source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told CNBC the U.S. was considering striking eight potential targets. Those targets include two Syrian airfields, a research center and a chemical weapons facility.
The source also noted that Syria's military has repositioned a significant amount of air assets to Russian-controlled airfields in hopes that Washington would be reluctant to strike there.
"We're looking very very seriously, very closely at that whole situation and we'll see what happens folks," Trump told reporters Thursday.
Over the past five days, Trump has sharpened his rhetoric against Syria and its most powerful ally Russia and issued a threat via Twitter of a potential U.S. strike against the war-torn country...
Two overview / strategic articles
Anthony Cordesman, from CSIS, a 'long read' entitled 'Syria: When and How Does This War End?'; which opens with:
Quote:
In early 2003, when he was still commander of the 101st Airborne Division and still preparing for the invasion of Iraq, General David Petraeus asked a key question: “How does this war end?” Some fifteen years later, we are no closer to an answer than we were then in Iraq, and we seem to be no closer in Syria. The purpose of war is never to win military victories. The purpose is to shape a peace that serves the lasting strategic objectives of the nation that fights it. We have not been able to focus on this goal in any of our “wars”. Not only Iraq and Syria, but Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, and the other much smaller fights against terrorism and extremism in west and east Africa
(Ends with) The full message of the previous quotes from the World Bank and CIA on the civil impact of the fighting in Syria should be all too clear. It is just as important to have a sound civil-military strategy in fighting terrorism – and to focus on stability and peace – as it is in counterinsurgency. As the Syrian example shows all too clearly, focusing on the fighting and terrorism alone can never be enough. Even if one wins some form of tactical victory, one still must live with the reality that follows, and purely military solutions will always account to the equivalent of cut and run.”.
Link:https://www.csis.org/analysis/syria-...w-does-war-end
From the News Statesman (a UK weekly magazine, usually on the Left) two Kings College War Studies academics have 'Syria’s world war; How Britain and the US are being dragged into the defining conflict of our times'. It closes with:
Quote:
Once again, Syria has proven to be the problem that cannot be ignored, however much the West has tried. The ugly status quo engineered at great human cost by the Syrian regime – with the support of Russia and Iran – has been disturbed. Assad has brazenly continued to deploy chemical weapons on a regular basis with no great fear of any serious costs. For many years, the West has pursued diplomacy neutered by the absence of any willingness to deploy force; today, the danger is of a reflexive use of arms without any considered diplomatic strategy. These whimsical and fleeting fits of moral panic directed towards the defining crisis of our generation do little to defuse a febrile international climate.
Link:https://www.newstatesman.com/science...trangers-lives
What the French say about Douma
A public French 'national assessment' of the Douma CW strike; well-written IMHO and some horrible photos on the last page.
Link:https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/IMG/p..._cle0c76b5.pdf
Four jihadists, one prison: all released by Assad and all now dead
I missed this article in May 2016, so yes it is historical. Just why the four were in Syrian custody in 2011, as the civil war began, is not 100% clear (possibly two were rendered there by the USA). What is clear is their release had an impact:
Quote:
If President Assad’s Sednaya amnesty was indeed a considered plan to subvert the revolution, it worked.
Link:http://s.telegraph.co.uk/graphics/pr...mic/index.html
The Aviationist on the US-UK-France Airstrikes
The Russian military’s ‘permanent’ commitment in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean
A scholarly overview of Russia's place in Syria and nearby - presumably written before the latest allied air attack, as it is not mentioned.
Link:https://defenceindepth.co/2018/04/20...mediterranean/
The Syria Attack: Motives and Consequences
Professor Paul Rogers overview after the three allies action:
Quote:
The 14 April missile strike by the United States, France and the UK on three Syrian chemical weapons facilities aimed to enforce a much-scuffed red line on use of chemical weapons. But it was achieved in breach of international law and accompanied by a coordinated political message that the Western allies had no wider intention to oppose the Assad regime or its Russian and Iranian allies in Syria. As such, Trump is already advocating new actors like Egypt take the place of US troops in northeast Syria. While little has changed for Assad, Russia, or Iran in Syria, Israel and Turkey are increasingly dissatisfied with the West’s lack of apparent post-Islamic State strategy there and will act accordingly,
Interesting comments on the French strike:
Quote:
. In logistic terms the French component was far more complex and wide-ranging, even though it only involved eleven cruise missiles.
Link:http://www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.u...d_consequences
Turkey has built a border wall / fence
Border defences, whether in an insurgency - Algeria and Rhodesia come to mind - or to control border crossing are often controversial:
Quote:
In related news,
Turkey has completed construction of a 764-km (475 mile) concrete wall along its border with Syria. Ankara launched the construction project in 2015 for a barrier along 826 of the 911 kms of the border. The modular walls consisted of seven-ton mobile blocks, two meters wide and three meters high, topped with a one-meter height of razor wire. A furhter electronic layer has close-up surveillance systems, thermal cameras, land surveillance radar, remote-controlled weapons systems, command-and-control centers, line-length imaging systems and seismic and acoustic sensors. There is also laser destructive fiber-optic detection, surveillance radar for drone detection, jammers, and sensor-triggered short distance lighting systems.
Link:http://eaworldview.com/2018/06/syria...investigation/
We're nearly back on all the Golan Heights
From an Israeli think tank:
Quote:
The Syrian army is completing its takeover of the Syrian Golan Heights while establishing its presence along the border with Israel. The only remaining area of resistance is the ISIS-controlled Yarmouk Basin, which is under attack by the Syrian army, including artillery shelling and airstrikes.....Most of the areas under the control of the rebel organizations fell into the hands of the Syrian army and the forces supporting it, without significant fighting but rather through surrender agreements (so-called reconciliation agreements) involving the Russians. The most prominent area where a surrender agreement was reached was the area of Quneitra. The agreement that was reached included a ceasefire, the return of the Syrian army to all the positions that had been under its control before the civil war, and the evacuation of rebel operatives who did not want to join the agreement to the Idlib region in northern Syria. As a result, Syrian soldiers entered the towns and villages in the area without any fighting, including the village of Al-Rafid, near the border with Israel.
Link:https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en...ly-19-25-2018/
There is more on the link on other developments.
There is a small thread on the Golan Heights, for reference:http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...shpoint-coming
The World Abetted Assad’s Victory in Syria
Thanks to a "lurker" for the pointer to this. At times a painful read this piece in 'The Atlantic' offers an explanation why Assad appears today to have won. Being ruthless was one factor and with help from those who simply ignored the critics (akin to Sri Lanka may be).
The last two passages:
Quote:
From the outside, Assad’s victory looks like no victory at all. He is king of the ashes, overlooking a distraught country from his presidential palace. He has yet to conquer vast swathes of territory and faces ongoing terrorist attacks from jihadist sleeper cells. He must rebuild a heavily indebted, struggling economy, with a shrunken population shorn of much of its technical and intellectual skill. He is reliant on two powerful foreign allies, Russia and Iran, who have infiltrated state institutions and the economy and wield huge influence. He must placate the millions of loyal Syrians who have sacrificed their blood and treasure to keep him on his throne.Yet to Assad and his inner circle, who have been playing a long game, it must seem these problems can still be surmounted, even if it takes decades. For them, the war was about survival, and in this sense they have won. Their own cynicism and ruthlessness at home combined with decisive assistance from abroad (whether intentional or not) has allowed them to remain in power. It was brutal and inhumane but, from their perspective, it worked. That is a chilling lesson for other dictators.
Link:https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...-syria/566522/
In a civil war treachery abounds
An article written after President Trump's policy statement via Twitter and the author concludes:
Quote:
Walking away now is a remarkable gift for Isis, whose leaders can say they saw off the Americans and their allies. Even without the withdrawal, the group would likely have held out for many more months as an organised entity, able to defend what it still had. With its most formidable foe leaving the fray, Isis may well be reborn.
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/19/has-isis-been-defeated-in-syria-as-trump-claims
I do wonder if any of the USA's allies and partners had thought this new policy was a possibility? Not only an exit for those US forces on the ground, the likely end for air operations.
How will the Kurdish allies respond? Sadly I expect a few of them knew this would happen one day; after all their recent history shows allies suddenly exit. Will they release the reported thousands of ISIS prisoners, even kill them?
The FT reports:
Quote:
The political wing of Kurdish-led militia groups backed by the US have held talks with the Syrian regime as part of efforts to protect their hold over a stretch of territory in the war-torn country. The negotiations underline the shifting dynamics in Syria’s seven-year civil war as President Bashar al-Assad reasserts control over much of the country. They also illustrate how the Kurdish militants in north-east Syria now view their future interests as being tied to the regime.
Link:https://www.ft.com/content/3012a3c2-...a-eeb7a9ce36e4
Syrian Policy Complexity Is America’s Necessary Lesson
An article by a lady academic / policy analyst (who is a Forum member too), which has had compliments on Twitter. So a couple of passages, near the start:
Quote:
This has brought to the fore a confusing set of aligned and contradicting responses. It is almost as difficult to keep track of the politics of the comments and commentators as it has been to figure out where and how to stand on the war itself.
She ends with:
Quote:
This analysis may feel unsatisfying, may seem to leave readers with few answers and more uncertainty regarding their correct apprehension of the current situation, and those challenges to come in the future. That is as intended. And as paradoxical as it may seem, such a state of enlightened confusion will serve the U.S. and the international community better to hedge against hubris,
partisanship, or propaganda in national security policies.
Link:https://theglobepost.com/2018/12/24/syria-us-lesson/
BBC Monitoring: Analysis: What is brewing behind the scenes in northern Syria?
I rarely spot their products, this however looks good if you are Syria focused. It starts with:
Quote:
In just a few days of fighting with Turkey-backed rebels, jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has raised its stake in the last opposition-held area in northern Syria. Within a week of launching attacks on a rival Islamist faction, HTS has expanded its control in the north, capturing most of western Aleppo Province, including the key towns of Darat Izza and Atarib.
The infighting in the north is not unprecedented - clashes between rebels and HTS have been intermittent over the past two years.
But the speed in which HTS has captured territory in the north, and the silence of key regional players – mainly Turkey - over these developments raises questions about what is happening behind the scenes. It also puts one of the last rebel areas in Syria at risk of a ground offensive by pro-government factions who may argue that they need to oust jihadists.
Link:https://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/c200jfy0
Iblib nclave: what is happening?
A BBC report on the spread of an Islamist group (HTS), which claims to have cut links to AQ. The map below is interesting, especially the location of Turkish outposts within HTS areas.
Link:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-47252257
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cp...feb_640-nc.png
Between Regime and Rebels: A Survey of Syria’s Alawi Sect
Recommended by a "lurker" this interesting NYRB article, it dissects what has happened to this loyal community, their losses and the apparently little gain for this.
Link:https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2019/0...as-alawi-sect/