From Rank Amateur:
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That's not true anymore. Occupying Sadr City won't do any good because Sadr can pick up a cell phone and order attacks whenever he wants attacks. Killing Sadr doesn't do any good, because people can post his old anti US speeches on the Internet. Holding territory no longer denies command and control to the insurgents.
Well, its a reasonable question, based on reasonable observations. However, I don't think its as simple as it would appear. I'd also say that Sadr City is not a location that typifies the rest of Iraq. Even there though, its about creating the conditions where alternatives can be born. Its not just about clearing and holding physical terrain to secure the people who live there, or even physically isolating the leadership that opposes stability, however these are a part of it. Its about fostering the conditions that make the painfully slow process of political, social, and economic integration/reconciliation possible. I think MNFI understands this, and have been very frank in their assessment as to how long this is going to take, the resources its going to consume, and the obstacles that lay ahead. However, I thik they ave been equally on the mark in identifying the cost of doing it wrong or the danger of leaving it unstable and how that would works against our vital interests in the region.
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To use an Iraq example, Holding territory in Ramadi didn't work. Cutting a deal with local sheiks did. Occupying Afghanistan just forced Al Qaeda to the net and terrorist attacks have increased.
Really two parts here. The first speaks to political integration, and generating capacity. It may be an interim solution, or it may be a long term one - hard to tell. However, it is an improvement. Although it'd be great to have a strong enough Iraqi central government to meet the needs of the people across Iraq, we're probably a ways off from that. In the mean time, the sheiks provide a tried means of providing a form of government/influence to reach those ungoverned spaces. They are also a means to help the central government build security force capacity - which also contributes toward the security goal. Hopefully as it evolves, the central government, and the more isolated and remote form offered by the sheiks will be integrated. Again, I believe MNFI understands this, and is helping to put the PRTs, etc that will build the bridge.
The second part
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(Occupying Afghanistan just forced Al Qaeda to the net and terrorist attacks have increased
) may be a bad cause and effect relationship. If the stated goal of AQ was to re-create a caliphate (Google Al Qaeda strategy) then you can equally infer that they would have increased their attack anyway, but on their schedule, and on terrain more accommodating to their goals. I think you can build an argument either way, but that is the danger with that type of thesis.
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meeting political milestones, building democratic institutions, and standing up security forces."
At least at the national level. And even in Ramadi it seems to me that a political deal was reached with the sheiks first, who encouraged their followers to build up the security forces and if the locals didn't do the capturing, they did the holding.
I'd suggest that task, purpose, method, effect looked something like this. Task: negotiate. Purpose: establish non hostile local militias. Method: giving local leaders what they want. Effect: denying Al Qaeda sanctuary and safe haven.
So Petraeus definitely deserves kudos for being creative and flexible, but it does suggest to me that the critical tasks need to be given to the generals and the politicians.
Well, I know its Joint doctrine, but I still have issues with effects based planning - its a cause and effect thing where attributing success or failure to a cause that involves the messy world of people and emotions (or will) can potentially lead you down the wrong road.
However, as an end-state you have laid out some pieces and parts well I think. I'd say though that I'm not sure you want to make the fulfillment of one contingent on the other. If you get a "two-fer" well that is great.
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So Petraeus definitely deserves kudos for being creative and flexible, but it does suggest to me that the critical tasks need to be given to the generals and the politicians.
You'll need to qualify this one for me - I think what you may be getting at is the linkage between operational art, strategy and policy. I think we'd all agree here that we need better synchronization. However, it is an evolving process. The policy ends are not going to be described as "tasks", they are going to be more generalized - like "facilitate the establishment of a secure, economically and politically viable Iraq that contributes to regional stability and is integrated into the global economy ". The strategy that promotes those policy ends is going to be more specific as it starts to marry "ways" and "means" with the ends. The operational art as defined by Colin Gray is:
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"the skill with which forces are maneuvered so that they are well positioned for tactical advantage. But it refers also the ability to know when to accept or decline combat, with a view toward advancing campaign wide goals. Operational Art uses the threat and actuality of battle to win a campaign"
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I think MNFI has taken that definition and adjusted it to the current campaign goals to realize strategic objectives and policy goals.
Ultimately, and probably everyone agrees, that the ultimate political end in this case rests firmly on the will of Iraq to integrate and provide reconciliation for its fractured society. We can however help provide Iraq the means to do so by helping the Iraqi government gain security and by providing the conditions that facilitate stability.
Rank Amateur, your questions are worth while, and I'd encourage you to contribute more. It would be nice though to get a sense of who you are in order to promote dialogue and better understand the context of your postings. I hope you continue to read and post, make thoughtful observations that contribute to all of us better understanding the topics we discuss.
Best regards, Rob