ISIS overtakes al Qaeda: What’s next?
http://www.fpri.org/geopoliticus/201...eda-whats-next
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Those who assessed that bin Laden’s death would be of no consequence for al-Qaeda have been proven wrong. Bin Laden, along with a select few of his top lieutenants and protégés who’ve been eliminated by drones, provided the last bits of glue that held a declining al-Qaeda network together. As discussed in the 2012 post “What if there is no al-Qaeda?”, al-Qaeda for many years has provided little incentive in money or personnel for its affiliates and little inspiration for its global fan base. Things have gotten so bad that rumors suggest Ayman al-Zawahiri may dissolve al-Qaeda entirely, that’s right, al-Qaeda might QUIT! I’ll address these rumors in a separate post next week. Until then, here is what I see as the good and bad for al-Qaeda and ISIS this year.
A few tables and graphs at the link showing the growth of ISIS influence and the decline of AQ's influence.
Compares good and bad news for both. While we sought to weaken the cohesion of these various groups, it is apparent that these divided loyalties have only contributed to an increase of terrorist activity.
Jihadi Fractures: two charts
Video of Islamic State capabilities impresses military experts
Video of Islamic State capabilities impresses military experts
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2015/04/2...abilities.html
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But beyond the outcome of the refinery battle, military analysts who’ve viewed the video find it alarming because it shows that the Islamic State retains a surprisingly high level of military skill despite months of daily airstrikes by U.S. aircraft and their coalition allies.
“The overall takeaway from this and several other videos like it, and this opinion is borne out by the facts on the ground, is that Daash remains better trained, more motivated, better led and supported by a logistical infrastructure that the Iraqi government is literally incapable of delivering to their own troops,” said one former British special forces soldier who consults with the Iraqi Kurdish government on military affairs. He spoke only on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of his role in Iraq. Daash is an Arabic acronym for the Islamic State.
Much more in the report, well worth the read. It is an honest assessment from folks on the ground who are not spinning a narrative. It raises important questions on why ISIS is producing more competent foot soldiers than Iraq. I suspect the answers will make us uncomfortable, which normally results in an organizational state of denial.
How Isis crippled al-Qaida: a long read
A long newspaper article to read in The Guardian, which on the first read covers many points and links on SWC. The key feature appears to be access to two Jihadist clerics, Abu Muhammed al-Maqdisi and Abu Qatada, now both resident in Jordan:http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...pled-al-qaida?
Here is a taster:
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Now the man US terrorism analysts call “the most influential living jihadi theorist” has turned his ire toward Isis – and emerged, in the last year, as one of the group’s most powerful critics. ..... Maqdisi released a long tract castigating Isis as ignorant and misguided, accusing them of subverting the “Islamic project” that he has long nurtured.
As Qatada poured tea into small glass tumblers, he began reeling off images to better communicate the depth of his loathing for Isis. He likes speaking in metaphors. The group, he said, was “like a bad smell” that has polluted the radical Islamic environment. No, they were better described as a “cancerous growth” within the jihadi movement – or, he continued, like the diseased branch of a fig tree that needs to be pruned before it kills the entire organism.
Violent groups often reject their mentors IIRC. Now whether the two clerics can influence how ISIS develops is a moot point. At a minimum it may restrain those jihadists who have read their tracts not to go to join ISIS.
A Global Strategy for Combating al Qaeda and the Islamic State
A Global Strategy for Combating al Qaeda and the Islamic State
Entry Excerpt:
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IS -v- AQ: The War within
Hat tip to WoTR for this long article:http://warontherocks.com/2016/01/the-islamic-state-vs-al-qaeda-the-war-within-the-jihadist-movement/?
Taster:
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The Islamic State’s rise has reshaped the global jihadist landscape, which for nearly two decades was dominated by al-Qaeda. With the Islamic State seizing the world’s attention, the age of unipolarity within the jihadist movement is over, replaced by intense internal conflict. Each group is firm in the belief that its organizational model is superior to that of its opponent.
AQ or ISIS: the threat from
Jason Burke, of The Guardian, returns to the fray with an overview 'A more dangerous long-term threat': Al-Qaida grows as Isis retreats':https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-isis-retreats
Panel to HASC: Fighting Islamic State, Al Qaeda Could Take 15 More Years
Panel to HASC: Fighting Islamic State, Al Qaeda Could Take 15 More Years
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Bin Laden’s Son Steps Into Father’s Shoes as al-Qaeda Attempts Comeback
Bin Laden’s Son Steps Into Father’s Shoes as al-Qaeda Attempts Comeback
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How Al-Qaeda survived drones, uprisings and the Islamic State
A 124pgs WINEP report 'How Al-Qaeda survived drones, uprisings and the Islamic State', reflecting a one day workshop in March 2017 and with a very strong American content. From the introduction:
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The event was organized thematically around four topics: (1) al-Qaeda’s strength from an international and domestic perspective; (2) al-Qaeda’s strongest branch in Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham); (3) al-Qaeda’s major branches outside Syria (AQAP, AQIM, al-Shabab, and AQIS); and (4) al-Qaeda’s financial structure. This provided a rich portrait of al-Qaeda’s current stature and the nature of the threat it poses in the broader Middle East as well as in Western countries, including the United States.
Link:http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/u...s153-Zelin.pdf
Al-Qaeda Is Thriving, Despite Our Endless War. Can We Ever Defeat It?
An article by Ali Soufan that poses this question, although it can be applied to other Islamist groups. A passage that summs up his views (lightly edited):
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Today’s al-Qaeda can boast tens of thousands of fighters under its command, and that is not even counting the thousands more who still swear allegiance to al-Qaeda’s wayward progeny, the Islamic State.Why have jihadi groups survived and grown? In short, because their ideology remains strong. That evolution, Fazul predicted, would make al-Qaeda much harder to defeat. Unfortunately, he was right. Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State, and other jihadi groups have become adept at luring disaffected young men with false claims of an epochal war between Islam and the West and fraudulent promises of history-shaping adventure.
He has some thoughts, none startling, on as he concludes:
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we must dedicate ourselves to undermining the resource that underpins each of its branches: its store of ideas.
Link:https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article...qaeda-thriving
Very little seems to be done on the 'store of ideas', even after a succession of events that have undermined the optimism in the 'West' that terrorism is a rare, painful event. Then we look around parts of the world and as the author writes there is little room for optimism where most deaths form Islamist activity happens.
The 'war on terror' has been a 'terrifyingly expensive failure'
A short article from a UK Business News website, the actual title is: 'There are nearly four times as many jihadist militants today than on 9/11, and the 'war on terror' has been a 'terrifyingly expensive failure'. BLUF:
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- There are nearly four times as many jihadist militants across the world today as there were on September 11, 2001, according to a new report.
- Foreign policy analysts say it's yet another sign the war on terror has been a colossal failure.
- There are approximately 230,000 Salafi jihadist fighters across almost 70 countries, according to the report.
On a quick read it appears to be based on a CSIS report published this week.
Link:http://https://www.csis.org/analysis...ihadist-threat
Link to the website article:http://uk.businessinsider.com/there-...8-11?r=US&IR=T
Four times as many jihadist militants today than on 9/11: a contrary view
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Originally Posted by
davidbfpo
A short explanation by Alex Thurston (who has been cited before IIRC) on why CSIS is wrong.
Link:https://sahelblog.wordpress.com/2018...urrounding-it/
No longer does al-Qaida grab the headlines. That might be the plan
Jason Burke, a UK journalist whose focus is often AQ and jihadists, has a short column and asks:
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how is it that a group that commanded such extraordinary, unprecedented attention across the world from 2001 to 2011 can disappear from public attention so completely?
Link:https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-might-be-plan