Did ISIS strike across the border?
From Newsweek:
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Dozens of Islamic State (ISIS) fighters have infiltrated (Rafha) a Saudi Arabian border town via Iraq before melting away into the general population, according to claims by the terror group’s supporters on social media.
Link:http://www.newsweek.com/isis-attack-...te-town-302652
Wiki shows Rafha as having 80k inhabitants in 2010 and it is located close to the border. You may have to alter the scale to see the location:http://www.maplandia.com/saudi-arabi...rontier/rafha/
A rare look inside a Saudi prison
A WaPo journalist visits a Saudi jail for terrorists undergoing rehab:http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...wpmk=MK0000203
How effective is this?
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Gen. Mansour al-Turki, spokesman for the powerful Ministry of Interior, whose Mabahith secret police run the five high-security prisons....Turki said that about 20 percent of those who have gone through the rehabilitation program have returned to terrorism-related activities. Many rights activists think the failure rate is higher than Saudi officials admit.
Note in 2013 (Post 28) this was the failure rate:
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The percentage of those who rejoin the deviant minority does not exceed 10%.
So if we accept officialdom's statement the programme now has higher failure rate!
Saudi Arabia is emerging as the new Arab superpower
Not my title, but that in The Daily Telegraph and a short piece by:
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Nawaf Obaid is a Visiting Fellow and Associate Instructor at Harvard Kennedy School and a former strategic affairs advisor to the Saudi government.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...uperpower.html
Hardvard bio:http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/...waf_obaid.html
To date the interventioin in the Yemen hardly appears positive, ah well the Saudis will learn (again) and of course few nations have offered to shed their blood.
KSA is preparing itself in case Iran develops nuclear weapons
Another article by Nawaf Obaid (bio in previous post) and is hardly reassuring:
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Saudi Arabia has for past several years been laying the groundwork for a civil nuclear program with no PMDs (possible military dimensions). However, there is a strong possibility that the Kingdom might begin to engage in contingency planning for a defensive nuclear program with PMDs. This planning represents an emerging Saudi nuclear defence doctrine.
(Later) None should doubt that the Saudi scientific community possesses the know-how and technical infrastructure to realize this nuclear defense doctrine
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gene...r-weapons.html
Somehow I doubt KSA has such a national capability, given its track record in importing talent in the securitys ector and elsewhere. More likely the talent will be imported, from Pakistan in particular.
Saudi Arabia Fights the Islamic State at Home
A succint briefing from The Soufan Group and BLUF:
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The Saudi Arabian government announced that it has arrested 431 individuals, most over the last month, on charges associated with the Islamic State • Few countries are as sensitive to instability concerns as Saudi Arabia, and the country faces a serious domestic threat of Islamic State cells
• Following a steady procession of suicide bombings and shootings, Saudi Arabia is trying to disrupt the Islamic State’s momentum inside the country
• The number of Saudi nationals who have traveled to join the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq pales in relation to the potential recruiting pool of radicalized young Saudis who might prefer to fight at home.
Link:http://soufangroup.com/tsg-intelbrie...state-at-home/
I wonder if anyone in KSA has pointed out that in the Yemen the KSA is acting in apparent concert with AQAP?
Saudi Arabia’s “Terrorist” Allies in Yemen
From a short paper by the Washington DC based Wilson Center:
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The Yemeni civil war is making for strange bedfellows. Who would have predicted that Saudi Arabia and al-Qaeda might become allies despite the terrorist group’s near success in assassinating the current Saudi crown prince six years ago? Who would have thought the Kingdom would turn to the Muslim Brotherhood for help even though the Saudis have condemned it as a terrorist group at home? But this is what is happening in Yemen as the struggle between factions, seen by rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran as proxies of each other, relentlessly grinds on with no end in sight. These Saudi alliances may be mainly tactical and of short duration, but they are straining Saudi relations with the United States, which regards al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) as the most dangerous terrorist threat to the U.S. homeland. They are also angering Egypt’s President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, who looks upon the Brotherhood as an existential threat and the main source of the escalating terrorist insurgency he faces.
Link:http://www.wilsoncenter.org/publicat...-allies-yemen?
Back to the past or a new era emerges?
Sometimes I do wonder with all the history of the Yemen a BBC SME, from RUSI, can write this:
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The retaking of a key air base to the north of the southern city of Aden is a major strategic victory for the Yemeni government in its fight against the Houthi-led insurgency.The al-Anad air base is important for a number of reasons.....is extremely important for operations against AQAP)....It was a badly kept secret that much of the US drone programme that targeted al-Qaeda operatives in the south of the country was based out of al-Anad....The recapture of the base and the surrounding areas will ensure that a long-term counter terror presence can be maintaine..
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-33778116
Given that part of the anti-Houthi allaince is AQAP, let alone the stance of the Saudis, would the US be allowed to return and attack AQAP? I think not.
Then the BBC's own correspondent, Frank Gardner, reflects on the KSA's new assertiveness:
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...the Saudi military has now been at war with Houthi rebels for more than four months....For Saudi Arabia, this is about more than just securing its southern flank.The Saudis fear they are being steadily encircled by Iranian allies and this is something they want to reverse.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-33825064
The Liberation of South Yemen Proves Saudi Arabia's Power is Growing
The Liberation of South Yemen Proves Saudi Arabia's Power is Growing
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Senior Saudi royal urges leadership change for fear of monarchy collapse
Not sure what to make of this article, although Saud family rivalry is not new:http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/sa...pse-1612130905
Saudi Arabia: The Stunning Human-Rights Abuses of a U.S. Ally
Saudi Arabia: The Stunning Human-Rights Abuses of a U.S. Ally
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Why Saudi Arabia's Coalition Against Terror Might Not be All it Appears
Why Saudi Arabia's Coalition Against Terror Might Not be All it Appears
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Analysts: Saudi Arabia's Clerics Inspire Islamic Extremism
Analysts: Saudi Arabia's Clerics Inspire Islamic Extremism
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Shi'ite Muslims Outraged by Saudi Execution of Cleric
Shi'ite Muslims Outraged by Saudi Execution of Cleric
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Comparing Saudi Arabia and Iran
The new direction of Syrian arguments is about picking a side in the Sunni-Shia conflict.
Pro-Russian partisans accuse Saudi Arabia of being less democratic and more repressive than Iran, and of using Islamist groups including AQ and IS the way Iran uses the IRGC.
They highlight Iran's relative "freedom of religion" compared to KSA, the fact that women can drive in Iran, etc. The Al-Nimr execution has brought this line of argument to the fore.
However, upon closer examination, the Iranian regime is more bloodthirsty. They execute at least 3X more people per year than the KSA and have killed 12,000-15,000 in waves of purges against the Tudeh and other opponents to Khomeini. In contrast, Saudi political bloodletting from '79 to present is several hundred.
In addition, there is Hezbollah, Hamas and the IRGC to contend with, which are either arms of the Iranian state or sponsored by them. Private donations aside, the Saudis have nothing comparable.
Anyone care to add more?
Ruling the Kingdom: US Agency in the Saudi Arabian Nuclear Proliferation Puzzle
Ruling the Kingdom: US Agency in the Saudi Arabian Nuclear Proliferation Puzzle
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The Russian threat to Turkey?
Crowbat,
A quick note. The original, online story by Robert Parry was published on the 18th February 2016 and the relevant passage is:
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A source close to Russian President Vladimir Putin told me that the Russians have warned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Moscow is prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons if necessary to save their troops in the face of a Turkish-Saudi onslaught. Since Turkey is a member of NATO, any such conflict could quickly escalate into a full-scale nuclear confrontation.
The author's very slim byline at the end says:
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Investigative reporter Robert Parry broke many of the Iran-Contra stories for The Associated Press and Newsweek in the 1980s.
Link:https://consortiumnews.com/2016/02/1...-for-al-qaeda/
Now, isn't that a really interesting coincidence given the past of Duane Clarridge?;)
The long article touches upon many aspects of the Syrian civil war and USG policy. Needless to say the author is a critic of President Obama.
So one whispered 'source close to Russian President Vladimir Putin told me' and the media circus spins. Makes you wonder, well it does here.:confused:
Will Pakistan draw closer to Saudi Arabia to balance Iran?
A timely article, hat tip to WoTR, on this developing relationship and the author's very slim bio:
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Sameer Lalwani is Deputy Director of the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center. Previously, he was a Stanton Nuclear Security Postdoctoral Fellow at the RAND Corporation.
Link:http://warontherocks.com/2016/02/wil...-balance-iran/
I found it odd no mention is made of the widespread opposition in Pakistan, including in parliament, to joining the anti-Houthi coalition led by KSA, in late 2015.
KSA needs the West and the West needs KSA
I do wonder about The Daily Telegraph sometimes, it has some excellent columnists, but when I read Con Coughlin I often end up spluttering.:eek:
Here is his latest entitled:
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Lessons the West must learn from the Gulf War, 25 years on
It starts with:
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At a time when Western politicians are struggling to devise a coherent strategy to defeat the fanatics of Islamic State (Isil), the 25th anniversary of the First Gulf War... is a timely reminder of what can be achieved when the West forms an effective partnership with its Arab allies.
(It ends with) If the West is serious about finding effective regional partners to help defeat Isil, why not form a new coalition with the Saudis and their allies? If it worked so well in 1991, then why not now?
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...-years-on.html
At least he does not advocate entering into an alliance with another ally in 1991, the Syrian official regime.
Then for reasons lost on me, the Saudi Ambassador in London, has a column too and what a title:
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Saudi Arabia is bombing in Yemen to bring peace and stability
Referring to a recent critical UN report he writes:
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And it should also be noted that the UN Report itself is based solely on satellite imagery and eyewitness testimony, which have proven to be highly unreliable in the past.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...stability.html
Why the Saudis are going solar
In an article in the Atlantic I was reading the other day, a crazy statistic caught my eye:
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The Saudis burn about a quarter of the oil they produce—and their domestic consumption has been rising at an alarming 7 percent a year, nearly three times the rate of population growth. According to a widely read December 2011 report by Chatham House, a British think tank, if this trend continues, domestic consumption could eat into Saudi oil exports by 2021 and render the kingdom a net oil importer by 2038.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/...energy/395315/
Saudi Arabia goes to war: an Israeli analyst's view
Via the Australian website of the Lowy Institute, a short pithy article by a ret'd Israeli Air Force officer:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...s-to-war.aspx?
A few passages:
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Tanks, combat aircraft and missiles are only as powerful as the people operating, maintaining and supporting them. And in this domain, Saudi Arabia has a very long way to go. Not much is known about the proficiency of Saudi Arabia's military as a fighting force. The only real war the Saudis have taken part in was Operation Desert Storm in 1991; and most of the fighting there was done by the US. More recently Saudi Arabia has been fighting in Yemen, but unsuccessfully so far. Foreign advisers speak about the difficulties in bringing Saudi Arabian soldiers to the desired combat readiness and proficiency.
(Concluding passage) Let me finish with a comment on 'Northern Thunder'. Exercises as large as 'Northern Thunder' take a very long time to plan and coordinate, and it also takes many months to gather the units together in one place. Yet, 'Northern Thunder' appeared in the media out of nowhere. (and nothing is known about it since it was announced). Where do you hide 350,000 troops? Are they really there?
The author never heard of Yemen Wars: alas all too true
Cited in part:
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Originally Posted by
CrowBat
"The only real war the Saudis have taken part in was Operation Desert Storm in 1991..."
Sounds like the author never heard of Yemen Wars...
I agree, but somehow I expect very few people who were involved in the decision-making, let alone actual "boots on the ground" are now involved, let alone being listened to. Something in my memory tells me Egypt came to regard their "brotherly" intervention as their own Vietnam. The KSA did commit some troops, but it was mainly gold they contributed.
As Wiki reminded me this war was from 1962-1970. See:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Yemen_Civil_War
Just found via Google a 21 pg paper:http://www.alexthorn.com/writings/Th...ptsVietnam.pdf
Once again your example reminds us that history has a habit of fading away, only to return and "bite" hard. Those who remind the decision-makers are all too often seen as "troublesome"; which seems to account for much of SWJ's infamy.;)