Dorronsorro, Semple, Nathan, Exum
(Moderators note copied here from Strategic Intelligence thread, as appropriate).
Went to a Center for American Progress conference today.
Gilles Dorronsoro, Micheal Semple and Joanne Nathan (corrected), all non-US experts who have been in Afghanistan since before 2001.
Each had a presentation on their field. Most of you have heard some of this: Dorronsorro (secure the cities first, etc..), and Semple's work with the Taliban are pretty well known.
Nathan, an Australian, asked: What's this COIN thing about? I read the manual and it said Clear-Hold-Build, but all you ever do is Clear, Clear, Clear. No administrative purpose or capability. Why are you clearing unless you have civilian capacity to Hold and Build? Where has this strategy ever been applied?
Even Andrew Exum didn't take a stab at answering that.
The big question that all were asked to comment on: What do you think of these people who see one small part of the country, then try to exprapolte what they saw there to a bigger picture about the country? (Obviously, the Hoh question).
They were pretty devastating in explaining just a snippet of what they know about the whole country, and why that kind of speculation is not useful.
Like Exum said, DC is usually full of generalists, and it was a rare opportunity to have three leading specialists in one place.
Certainly worth hearing every word yourself to build or assess strategy.
http://www.americanprogress.org/even...streaming.html
Steve
Afghan reconciliation Negotiations with the Taliban will be tricky, but critical
Hat tip to Zenpundit and from Col. Joseph Collins, in AFJ:
Quote:
(Last paragraph) Political reconciliation, first with individual fighters and then with the Taliban factions, will be difficult but not impossible. It represents a potential way to end the 32 years of war that have beset this land. It will require great Western political, military and economic efforts during the reconciliation period and close attention to U.S.-Afghan relations in the long-term future. The cooperation of regional partners, especially Pakistan, will be critical. This process is likely to take years, but it carries with it the promise of the first peace in Afghanistan in three decades. It will be risky, but it is a chance we should take.
Link:http://www.armedforcesjournal.com/2010/03/4491210
HIG Presents Afghan Peace Plan
Insurgent Faction Presents Afghan Peace Plan
By CARLOTTA GALL
New York Times
Published: March 23, 2010
Quote:
KABUL, Afghanistan — Representatives of a major insurgent faction have presented a formal 15-point peace plan to the Afghan government, the first concrete proposal to end hostilities since President Hamid Karzai said he would make reconciliation a priority after his reelection last year.
The delegation represents fighters loyal to Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, 60, one of the most brutal of Afghanistan’s former resistance fighters who leads a part of the insurgency against American, NATO and Afghan forces in the north and northeast of the country.
His representatives met Monday with President Karzai and other Afghan officials in the first formal contact between a major insurgent group and the Afghan government after almost two years of backchannel communications, which diplomats say have been sanctioned by the United States.
Taliban fighters are 'conditioned' to die in battle...
Quote:
A former insurgent in Afghanistan has told how he survived daily battles with British troops and why he decided to join the peace process in what is believed to be the first ever interview given by a member of the Helmand Taliban.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...insurgent.html
Some interesting points made on reconciliation and other subjects, notably the presence of foreign fighters.
This could only be true is Americans understood the Jirga
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dayuhan
I personally suspect that the peace jirga has nothing to do with establishing legitimacy in the eyes of Afghans and everything to do with establishing legitimacy in the eyes of Americans. I expect Karzai to do everything in his power to pack the jirga with his supporters and exclude, co-opt, or coerce potential dissenters. I expect him to pull every trick in the wily Pathan repertoire to assure a rousing endorsement of his administration, which he will then run up a flagpole and wave in the general direction of Washington DC, hoping that it will call forth a new wave of goodies.
I may be overly cynical, but that's what I expect.
Americans see Elections as the key to legitimacy; this Jirga thing is confusing or off the radar all together for "Americans", and not well appreciated for its full potential by many of our senor leaders either, IMO.
But you are right, Karzai may well blow it, he may stack the deck with his cronies, excluding oppositions voices. If he does, it should be a Regis Philbin moment for the US, as in asking "Is that your final answer?"
If he says "yes" then he has released us from any moral obligation to stay.