Not much I can add to all Tequila'a links.
I'm inclined to agree with Baer; I think Ahemdinajad probably won though that does not mean the vote wasn't fiddled. The fiddling just gave him a larger majority.
This was a battle between Rafsanjani (with Mousavi as hired proxy) and Khameini (with Ahmedinejad as controllable proxy) for who would really run things. It looks as if most of the Iraniha figured that out, decided Rafsanjani was already more than wealthy enough and opted for Khameini. I suspect most are willing to let Ahmedinejad continue his anti-corruption campaign, which Rafsanjani and his big business associates and the secular north Tehran socialites would like to see disappear...
Most everyone would like to see the Komite (the moral police) and the Baseej disappear and that was one of Mousavi's big drawing cars. Easy to say, less easy to do when those two are the Guidance Council's boys and girls, not those of the government of the day. Iit is perhaps notable that he said nothng about disbanding the Pasdaran.
Many forget that Mousavi was Khomeini's Foreign Minister and Prime Minister (until that job was eliminated by the new Constitution) and he was a real piece of work. He is no Mr. Nice Guy and arguably dealing with him would be a bigger problem than dealing with Ahmedianajd ever could be.
I also agree with Bourbon -- we need to stand clear. Support in any form for the protestors will just make it harder on them in the long run. It will also make it more difficult to talk to Iran which we eventually will have to do. Been rather stupid IMO to let things fester this long.
The university students and the moneyed elite in the North Tehran Hills, the majority of the twittering crowd are not the bulk of the Iranian populace. the bulk are pretty pious Shia and they are not yet ready for a revolution IMO. Iran will change governing styles when it is ready. That will almost certainly not be on a western timetable.
ADDED: I think one would be wise to not pay too much heed to English (or any western) language reporting out of Iran. If it's not in Farsi, it's probably suspect. Westerners tend to give more credence to western language speakers but most in Iran do not speak a western language and those that do are quite adept at manipulating that ability to their advantage. Recall, you're dealing with a place where haggling is a national sport....
Handling of Iran election correct
I don't forsee my developing the habit of agreeing much with our current president, but his decision to keep US out of any means of intervening with current Iran election situation is wise and prudent. Let's not fool ourselves. There is no pro US side in this recent "election." Perhaps, one side can be deemed at least potentially more reasonable towards US interests but to believe the current situation in Iran will ever veer near being remotely pliable towards western interests would be foolish. To take a stand in the current powder keg developing due to the recent election would be insane.
Alleged actual election count by candidate: TIMES of London
23.56
Quote:
Yesterday, two Iranian film makers presented a document to Green Party MEPs in Brussels which allegedly contained the true results of last week's election. In the document, a letter from the office of Iran's Interior Ministry to Supreme Leader Ayatolla Ali Khamenei, Mousavi is revealed to have won 19,075,623 votes, Mehdi Karroubi 13,387,104 votes, and Ahmadinejad a paltry 5,698,417.
A photograph and translation of the letter has appeared online. Make of it what you will.
The London TIMES tonight also reports that demonstrations have spread througout all of Iran, no longer limited to just Tehran. However, due to the Iranian Government news blackouts, etc. no way to verify as yet.
Also, CNN TV news tonight 6/17/09 reports that Iranian Police have started protecting the marchers/demonstrators, and are reported to be in sharp clashes/fights to stop the Republican Guard attacks on the peaceful demonstrators.
If any truth, and one can assume some truth here, things for the existing Iranian hierarcy, including the leading Ayatollah, are falling apart more swifty than even I would have expected.
COMMENT: Someone on this SWJ thread tonight has asked what the root cause or causes are of this vote surprise and demonstrations. My best guess, and it is only an arm chair guess from across the pond here in US, is that false and failed promises to women voters, who are the majority of the total vote in any Iranian election, have cost AJ his job if the vote is honestly counted. And, I would hope, but have no hard facts to back this wishful thought up, but I hope, and think, that a move away from theocracy to secular governance could be underway???
AP News re why the revolt in Iran
"The mass demonstrations of support for Mousavi have spread to other parts of Iran, too. Rallies attracting thousands have popped up across the country including the central historic city of Isfahan, the conservative northeastern city of Mashhad and Shiraz in the south.
It is not just the election many people in the streets are angry about. They want more personal freedoms and a better economy and international standing. They blame Ahmadinejad for giving Iran a bad name abroad."
You can find this complete article on AOL NEWS if you check it now, 11:20 PM CDT, 6/17/09.
You could just say what you mean instead of
trying to tiptoe through the tulips. This is, after all, a discussion board and not a game show. Actually, it's a small wars / warfare discussion board and NOT a political board; there are plenty of those out there but we leave our politics in a puddle on the keyboard hereabouts and ask that all who post do so. ;)
How much time did you spend in Iran? That's some in-depth knowledge you display. I'm sure that you would not make such accusations against the poor Hittites unless you have some corroboration of your speculative statements and I'm equally sure you can back each of those statements with reams or web pages of linked and relatively unbiased evidence which would perhaps help you make your case. That would also make for an effective post instead of one that appears to use innuendo and say little that will stimulate any meaningful discussion ...
Though I admit I did not know the Hittites had an air force. :D
Bet Frank's Name Isn't Frank
Today's events show that the crowds were willing to test Khameini's and the regime's will. Question is, will they be willing to go out again knowing that the regime is likely to try to keep upping the pressure?
If they do show again the regime will be forced to decide between going all out and turning up the violence or blinking. If the regime does want to turn up the violence, it has to consider just how much stomach its rank and file have for killing their countrymen. Will the police commander who said today, "I have a wife and kids. Please go home so we don't have to beat you," be willing to keep increasing the violence?
OK it is all clear to me now
First they get rid of the "i before e" rule
And now they undermine the Iranian elections....
Yes ladies and gentlemen, the Brits are to blame :eek:
Quote:
Iran's parliament speaker criticizes election authority
Larijani's statement was in direct contrast to that of Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, who considers the possibility of ballot irregularities in the presidential elections as almost nonexistant.
"The possibility of organized and comprehensive disruption and irregularities in this election is almost close to zero given the composition of the people who are holding the election," he told foreign diplomats on Sunday.
Mottaki blamed Britain for interfering in the elections, saying it had been planning against the vote for more than a year.
"We witnessed an influx of people from the U.K. ahead of the election," he said, without offering specifics.
Mottaki accused Britain of supporting followers of the Baha'i faith, a religion that originated in 19th-century Persia but which Iran does not recognize.
He also said the West expects a different model of democracy from developing countries.
Bet you thought I was kidding:
Quote:
New Britain Teaching Guidelines Nix 'I Before E' Spelling Rule
Print LONDON — It's a spelling mantra that generations of schoolchildren have learned — "i before e, except after c."
But new British government guidance tells teachers not to pass on the rule to students, because there are too many exceptions.
The "Support For Spelling" document, which is being sent to thousands of primary schools, says the rule "is not worth teaching" because it doesn't account for words like 'sufficient,' 'veil' and 'their.'
Chaos in Iran and chaos in spelling bees all because of perfidious Albion :wry: