Nigeria: tottering on the tip of anarchy
A short article, which on a quick late read, is both pessimistic and hopeful. Almost sounds like "muddling through" is a colonial legacy that lives on.
Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/carolin...tip-of-anarchy
Nigeria Africa's big power: start & stop in a loop?
There are a few threads on Nigeria on other matters, there is not one on its history of military intervention across sub-Sahara, mainly in West Africa and as AdamG id'd today way-back in Angola.
Nigeria in Angola (around 1977)? A quick look
AdamG,
I too was surprised at this discovery and looking at the cited sources I am not totally convinced.
Robert Moss was a skilled Cold War journalist, of decidedly "hard line" views and reliant on sources not normally available, such as intelligence agencies and IMHO the South Africans. There are a couple of strange phrases in his report, for example:
Quote:
...UNITA claims to have intercepted radio communications in English (the common language between the Nigerians, the Cubans and the MPLA)..
There was no common language, although I understood Spanish and Portuguese are not too apart.
The beegagle story refers to:
Quote:
..It has now emerged..
Hardly, it refers to a 1977 story by Robert Moss and one solitary photo taken in 1977, which is sourced to un-named 'intelligence sources'. The photo used is actually of Nigerian troops in Somalia, a few years ago.
Without any cited sources Wikipedia's entry on the Nigerian Army refers to:
Quote:
In December 1983, the new Major General Muhammadu Buhari regime announced that Nigeria could no longer afford an activist anti-colonial role in Africa.
With a few years Nigeria changed that stance, with the large scale ECOWAS intervention(s) and Wikipedia refers to:
Quote:
Smaller army forces have been previously sent on UN and ECOWAS deployments in the former Yugoslavia, Angola, Rwanda, Somalia, and Sierra Leone.
See:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigerian_Army
This later quote almost word for word appears in the US Sate Dept. backgrounder on Nigeria:http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2836.htm
Casual Relationships in Sub-Sahara
We use to call the interaction of African political and military elites “casual relationships”, which were relevant to all of Sub-Sahara when it came to interest in natural resources (even if they aren’t yours :D). Having personally reported on the blood diamonds and trade for weapons in Angola, I can safely say we are either all walking around with blinders on, or, we are ignoring our “minuscule” role (such as then support to UNITA and wealthy oil multinationals).
Illicit natural resource revenues in the 80s were a good way for the cleptocracies to stay afloat and preclude negotiating loan repayments to the IMF. Ironically, those same resources were also used as collateral in obtaining even more loans. The trouble nowadays is responsiveness to OPEC (controlled “reported” production) to maintain OPECs comfort zone. Angola is simply playing on global oil supply and demand (playing on the fact Nigeria can’t keep up).
Angolan oil and insurgency
I do recall during the Angolan civil war noting that the oilfields in Cabinda were US-owned and operated - cannot recall which company now. The operating company was in effect making a large contribution to the MPLA side; with their Cuban, East German and other allies alongside. Whilst the USA, private parties and notably South Africa were supporting UNITA.
Cabinda is separated from Angola by the DRC, with a spluttering insurgency by FLEC:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Front_f...ave_of_Cabinda
The oil factor:
Quote:
Cabinda produces 700,000 barrels (110,000 m3) of crude oil per day. Cabinda Oil is associated with Sonangol, Agip Angola Lda (41%), Chevron (39.2%), Total (10%) and Eni (9.8%).
Link:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinda_(province)
The Rising Threat from the Boko Haram Militant Group
The recent attacks in Nigeria by the Boko Haram group had little coverage here, this is a link to a BBC News interview with a US academic observer:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15620601
Link to a BBC report on the attacks:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15597114
An in depth commentary, especially around the tactics used - the VBIED - is provided in 'The Rising Threat from Nigeria's Boko Haram Militant Group' is republished with permission of STRATFOR:http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20111...111110&utm_ter
One wonders if the group really rely on external training assistance. I have m' doubts.
A few words on Boko Haram
I'm Nigerian, I live in Nigeria and I have watched the Western discourse on Boko Haram and Nigeria with interest. I have a few comments.
Boko Haram is not all about Al Qaeda. There is a historical aspect to Islamic fundamentalism in North-Eastern Nigeria.
About thirty years ago, the Nigerian government dealt with the Maitatsine sect. The insurrection was put down and 4,000 were killed. Maitatsine seem to be the intellectual forebears of the Boko Haram movement. In addition, there has always been a strain of Islam in Nigeria that has not fully accepted the influence of the British and Western Civilisation.
There is also the economic dimension. The rise of Boko Haram strongly correlates with the decline of the booming textile mills of Northern Nigeria. Mass unemployment and low literacy rates lead to a very volatile situation. Pervasive corruption (three governors were accused of stealing $600 million), inflames already angry youth, making them prime targets for recruiting.
This fuels an insurrection against the established order which is seen as corrupt.
Boko Haram's initial targets include the brother of the Shehu of Bornu (one of the most respected traditional rulers) and government officials. Police incompetence and brutality led to an escalation of attacks against security agents (Abuja bomb blasts, Damaturu etc). The attack on Western interests is merely a logical extension of this.
The rank and file of the Nigerian Military is largely drawn from Northern Nigeria. So it is not inconceivable that some members of the Nigerian Military are sympathisers. Bomb-making in Nigeria is not new. As far back as 1986, a prominent Nigerian newspaper editor was assassinated by parcel bomb - the suspects were Nigerian military operatives. General Sanni Abacha went on a large bombing spree in the 1990's. So the source of bombs and bomb making could be closer home than we imagine.
This is a speculation, but it should be considered.
Why would Westerners be targeted? This might have something to do with the cosmic struggle between the good old US of A and Al Qaeda, but it may also have more to do with a common perception (held by both Muslims and Christians alike), that the West is the major force behind Nigeria's venal, corrupt and decadent leaders. The formation of AFRICOM and the Wikileaks revelations of secret visits by top US diplomats to Nigeria's most detested ex-military ruler (Ibrahim Babangida) might have something to do with it.
There is also a possibility that Boko Haram is being manipulated by several powerful elements in Northern Nigeria in order to destabilise the Jonathan administration (Jonathan is a Christian from Southern Nigeria).
The US has the best military technology on offer, but has close to zero understanding of the what is going on in Nigeria. And neither do many arm-chair pundits - take their opinions with a pinch of salt. There is no point creating expectations that you can intervene decisively if you don't understand the first thing about what's going on locally. There are many factors at play, there is a complex web of ethnicity, religion, poverty, government legitimacy, corruption, violence, propaganda and malice at play here. If the US couldn't distinguish between Sunni and Shia, they sure can't distinguish between Hausa-Fulani and Kanuri.
Short story: it's our fight, leave us alone to fight it.