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A pair of briefs from the Pakistan Security Research Unit, 22 Sep 08:
Future Prospects for FATA
Quote:
The future of Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal areas (FATA) has become the focus of intense anxiety and debate both within the country and in the wider international community. The problems, posed by the lawlessness of this strategic region for the ‘War on Terror’, hardly need stating, but there is little consensus regarding the way forward. Allegations of cross-border infiltration by a resurgent Taliban based in FATA have soured relations between Pakistan and the government of Hamid Karzai in neighbouring Afghanistan. Growing US and British casualties in Southern Afghanistan have raised concerns about Pakistan’s military effectiveness and commitment and have led to public debate about the necessity for US unilateral action within Pakistan’s tribal territory. There have also been claims that people in the intelligence services sympathised with the militants.....
Sectarian Violence in Pakistan's Kurram Agency
Quote:
Since 2004, there has been intense violence in the FATA. What started in South Waziristan,slowly spread to North Waziristan in 2005 and then later to Bajaur and Mohamand Agency during 2006 and 2007. For the last two years, this violence has spread to the settled districts of the NWFP including Bannu, DI Khan, Peshawar and Swat. Led by the Taliban and its local supporters in the FATA and NWFP, this violence is posing a serious threat to the process of governance, challenging the writ of the State. Referred to by media as Talibanization, these developments have been the subject of intense academic, media and policy interest.
Unfortunately, this excessive focus on the Talibanization phenomenon, has not given adequate space to focus on the ongoing sectarian violence in Kurram Agency. Since 2007, sectarian killings have increased in the agency and have taken many lives. During the last two months (July-August 2008) alone, there have been around 300 casualties.
This briefing examines what is happening in Kurram Agency, and explores three questions: Why is there sectarian violence in this agency? Why has it escalated recently? And are there any connections between this violence and the violence that is happening in the neighbouring Agencies of the FATA?
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A good article on Pakistan in the Economist as well:
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/...ry_id=12267391
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PSRU, 29 Sep 08: Pakistan’s Tribal Areas: An Agency by Agency Assessment
Quote:
There are seven tribal agencies (Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, Kurram, Orakzai, North Waziristan and South Waziristan) and six Frontier Regions (Peshawar, Kohat, Bannu, Lakki Marwat, D I Khan and Tank). They share a similar history and structure of ‘governance’ and -in varying degrees- all the agencies are suffering from the fallout from the US led War on Terror. However, they are not homogenous, and there are multiple actors in, and differing dynamics to, the conflicts in the tribal borderlands. The purpose of this briefing is to outline the differences between the agencies in terms of the nature of violence, the humanitarian situation and the prospects for improving the situation within the region, using both quantitative and qualitative methods.
There are clear limitations to such a research process, and accurate quantifiable assessment of the human security situation in the FATA is difficult. The region remains subject to a media blackout, and in cases where journalists are active, they are likely to be cautious and, understandably, exercise a degree of self-censorship with what they publish. In this context, the assessment below can only ever be illustrative rather than exhaustive, and it remains an assessment which probably represents a minimum baseline in terms of the extent of human suffering in the region, based on the collation of media reports. Notwithstanding a significant margin for error, the differences appear important, and, quantitatively, it seems that the agencies have not equally shared the insecurity in the region, suggesting some agencies may be more resilient than others to the Talibanization, whereas other may have simply submitted to the militant presence.
Complete 21-page brief at the link.
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PSRU, 20 Oct 08: Toward a Containment Strategy in the FATA
Quote:
.....the least-worst option at present, is through a containment strategy for the FATA. Such a strategy would seek to insulate the FATA from the dynamics in Afghanistan and Pakistan, would seek to de-escalate the violence within the FATA, and would refocus the objectives of the US and Pakistan militaries. If such a strategy is to be effective it must be co-ordinated, it must operate at multiple levels, and it must be sustained because it will not be immediately effective. Recognising that not all the players in this strategy will be willing partners it is necessary also that recalibrated pressure forms part of the strategy.....
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Scenic Pakistani valley falls to Taliban militants
From the AP:
Quote:
The Taliban activity in northwest Pakistan also comes as the country shifts forces east to the Indian border because of tensions over last month's terrorist attacks in Mumbai, potentially giving insurgents more space to maneuver along the Afghan frontier.
Militants began preying on Swat's lush mountain ranges about two years ago, and it is now too dangerous for foreign and Pakistani journalists to visit. Interviews with residents, lawmakers and officials who have fled the region paint a dire picture.
A suicide blast killed 40 people Sunday at a polling station in Buner, an area bordering Swat that had been relatively peaceful. The attack underscored fears that even so-called "settled" regions presumptively under government control are increasingly unsafe.
The 3,500-square-mile Swat Valley lies less than 100 miles from the capital, Islamabad
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...7LLJgD95COON80
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Bad news indeed. It makes you wonder if someone in the planning loop of the Mumbai attacks might have considered the potential of increasing Pakistani/Indian tensions and the resulting redistribution of Pakistani forces.
Whether deliberate, or lucky on the part of the enemy - the sooner that tension is eased some the better for us, the Afghanistan government, the Pakistanis, and the Indians.
From another perspective, it seems to show the enemy does not have to coordinate (at least in the way we think of it) its actions to have an effect or to take advantage of new conditions as a result of that effect.
Best, Rob
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First thoughts
Sorry was on my way out the door this morning when I came across that little nugget of news. I had a few immediate thoughts: The first was the same Rob mentioned; how much of the Mumbai attacks was geared towards getting this reaction out of Pakistan? Was it planned accordingly with the time of year, winter is a slow time in Afghanistan, therefore enabling them to broaden their power base in Pakistan? Or was it simply coincidence? Secondly is now with a larger land base how much can the Taliban recruit, train, equip? Are they again moving to a larger scale military force to be reckoned with inside Pakistan to eventually cross over in strength into Afghanistan? The problems that arrise when an insurgency grows to military might. Thirdly how does this affect our policy on going into Pakistan? NATOs policies in Afghanistan? Pakistans ability to squash it when things with India calm back down? Just a few of the immediate thoughts and I'm sure there are a miliion others out there. Talk about on effect based operations, maybe we should take note if this was planned!
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FATA - a Most Dangerous Place
Caught sight of this new report, written by a Pakistani analyst and will need a longer read, even a hard copy: http://mtblog.newyorker.com/online/b...ok_low-res.pdf
This seems the best place to add it.
davidbfpo
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From 1/27/09 Hujara Online (KhyberWatch.com)
There is growing anti Taliban and al Qaida sentiment evident over recent months and days on the above blog/website. These writers, some high school and college studens in UK, are helping plan a major demonstration against slaughers going on in Northern Pakistan currently, particularly inside Swat.
Thought this snippet might be of interest to you all.
George Singleton
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/sh...9199#post59199
Posted by: aimal khan
On: Today 03:22 PM
I am not against Islam as a religion( faith+worship+morality) and spiritual institution but I am totally against the extremist Islam in any shape like Salafis, Ahle hadith, Wahabis, Taliban, Panjpeeris, Ishate tawheed wa Sunna , and some extremist Deobandis. They are one of the most important causes of terrorism in today´s world. Politics of USA are power politics and they desrve it. Muslims used to do the same when they were in power rather worse than USA today as USA is not directly conquering the lands inspite of the necessary resources they have.Muslims started from MAKKAH and MADINA and conquered almost the whole known world to them at that time. Although that time they were not terrorists. they were fighting against their enemies according to all the established rules of war. Todays extremist muslims dont have power and try to fight against their enemies by the tool of terrorism whis is absurd, cruel, unjust and stupid.
All the best,
Global Hujra: A Pakhtun Cyber Land
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Kyberwatch, Frontierpost and Other News of Interest
http://asinstitute.org/home.php?page=1
Issue #98 came out by direct e-mail today, 31 Jan 09.
Give it a few days and #98 will be on this website, too, which now only has the Jan. 09 issue.
Site based in Lahore, Pakistan with focus among other things on both Pakistan and Afghanistan, but also on Africa and other areas.
Again, may be of "broadening" interest as we will be dealing more heavily with, perhaps in Pakistan from now on.
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University of Punjab instead of University of Lahore
My goof. The Institute referenced in previous posting by me is at the University of Punjab which is in Lahore, Pakistan. Apologies for my mistake.
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Still fighting in Swat
On the BBC website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7868875.stm
Not exactly good news and note the headline, odd.
davidbfpo
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Inside native Pukhtuns views on Waziristan terrorism
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5081
This blog post from Hujra Online (sub part of Khyberwatch.com) may be of interest as Waziristan in part is where extra Taliban fighters are now coming from into and out of Afghanistan.
See in particular post #54, dated 1-17-09, from/by Khan Baba.
Your feedback where possible would be of interest.
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Rather interesting
Quote:
Originally Posted by
George L. Singleton
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5081
This blog post from Hujra Online (sub part of Khyberwatch.com) may be of interest as Waziristan in part is where extra Taliban fighters are now coming from into and out of Afghanistan.
See in particular post #54, dated 1-17-09, from/by Khan Baba.
Your feedback where possible would be of interest.
Most seems to support what one might expect to see and be consistent with some of the actions they took when first coming to power in Afghanistan. That said exactly what portion do you think is of greatest import considering your background in the region?
The fact that one particular subset which might have been thought of as a possible partner in Pak efforts to organize resistance (if I remember my readings correctly) is hard pressed to do so due to the circumstances under which power shifted, or the fact that seems like too many different factions exist for any one to be large enough to compete with the larger threat?
Or something else altogether?
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Some more Pukhtun tribal problems background facts
Ron:
Your analysis is pretty much on target.
The pieces to this Pukhtun puzzle are as you noted are fragmented all over the place.
My simplistic analysis in discussing and watching this deterioration over there since 9/11:
1. Under former President Musharraf they did hit and run "fixes" in the troubled areas, FATA, Swat, Waziristan, Balochistan. Pak Army goes in, has a fire fight, razes homes of terrorists, then pulls back out.
2. Both under Musharraf and now under new elected President, husband of late Benazir Bhutto, jirgas and negotiations are forever on again, off again, to absolutely no lasting avail whatsoever.
3. Core struggle is over religion, pure and simple.
4. Pukhtun "belt" population as a whole have been among the poorest people in all of Pakistan, who factually or not in all alleged cases, have axes to grind with the central and regional governments (same cabal when it comes to governance). The "government" to them is mainly Punjabis who are also the majority of the successful business class throughout Pakistan, and nationwide the majority ethnic grouping in the total population.
5. In the Pak military there are a substantial number of Pukhtuns who find jobs there.
6. All Taliban being Pukhtuns, it is alleged, likely true, by commentators on their site (Hujra Online) that you now have "cousins fighting cousins", Pukhtuns in military of Paksitan up against Taliban Pukhtuns who in many instances are either blood kin or who grew up together as children, what we in the South here refer to as "near kin."
7. Attempts to use Frontier Corp troops instead of regular Pakistan Army troops to me, just my view, is a big part of the problem...as FC troops "are largely, not just some of them" Pukhtuns, and several times now in past two or so years I have felt the FC troops have both "changed sides" when it suited them to not kill each other (Pukhtuns) and to a lesser extent have mutinied and changed sides for good!
8. In Swat, where I have contacts both over there and back here in the States who go back and forth for family events, weddings and such, home visits, the Pak military only recently started to put troops into Swat for a more or less "longer" period of stay/posting, then turned around and made these troop placements into cantonments, ie, self contained "forts" and the troops then don't effectively go out, mix with the locals, and provide the security back up to the local police and to the people, who are openly still being attacked...in their own homes in a growing number of cases...especially those who speak out against terrorism and the Taliban are being attacked, as in murdered, in their own homes in front of other family members who "get the message" and cease resisting, in some cases, join the Taliban.
IDEAS FOR SOLUTION: Pakistan has to stop playing games to look for excuses to remove just placed major numbers of soldiers in these hot areas that in almost all cases now are in open revolt, where sectarian, ie, Pukhtun tribalism is mixed with terrorism, ie, Taliban, as anyone/everyone who hates the central and central appointed or allied/elected provincial goverment will and are now "reinforcing" each other against what I view as common sense "law and order" or the writ of law. At present, Pak Army has moved large elements to border with India using Mumbai terrorist attacks fiasco as an excuse to protect against a trumped up by the Pakistani ISI [excuse or allegation] of an imminent Indian military invasion. This whole damn "hate India" theme has been used since 1947 to keep Pakistanis from long term focusing on and getting lasting political fixes to internal domestic, economic, educational, etc, etc., problems.
The Taliban and al Qaida defacto have allies in the Pakistani Government, Army, and the ISI, as seen by most Pukhtun writers on Hujra Online, and I am starting to agree with them, as moving troops away from fighting terrorists to the stupid Indian border just lets the damned terrorists have the run of the ground in Swat, FATA, NWFP, Waziristan, and Balochistan ALL OVER AGAIN!
A MIDDLE GROUND of sane Pukhtuns do not totally reject the national/nationally backed provincial governments, and these are mainly YOUNGER Pukhtuns who have educations to even be on a website such as Hujra Online.
The hope, or failure of Northern Pakistan is largely with the high school and university age young men and women who are Pukhtuns. These in the main are who write on this site and who I communicate with as best I can.
MULTILINGUAL, not stupid, folks, these Pukhtuns. A typical educated or being educated today Pukhtun, is eduated in Urdu (the official language of the Pak Government is Urdu. Urdu is the identifying language of Punjabis, anethma to older Pukhtuns and to a growing number of younger Pukhtuns).
They then "chose" to save their culture via their language, which they also study and become fluent in, Pashtu.
To be effective in both the region and on a world level, focused on Pukhtuns overseas in Europe, Canada, and the US, they learn and are pretty good with English.
FINAL HISTORIC OBSERVATION: Some, but not all young Pukhtuns and very many older Pukhtuns in both Paksitan and Afghanistan (which is majority Pukhtun) go on and on about the DURAND LINE from early 1900s which is the official border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. When Durand Line comes up you are being told defacto that Pukhtuns want a united, to them reuinted, tribal nation made up of most of today's Afghanistan and large parts of Northern Pakistan. They exhibit no common sense about infrastructure, or lack there of, jobs, unresolvable poverty, lack of adequate schools...Taliban style Pukthuns of course are busy burning, blowing up, and killing teachers of girls schools all the time.
FAILING US efforts to dump billions of dollars worth of AID and development into Northern Pakistan. It is unsafe to go anywhere to build or do almost anything in N. Pakistan now without massive military protection, protection which the Pakistan military is NOT providing for foreigners, US, French, German, Chinese, you name one, to go out into the now boiling with terrorism and terrorists backward areas. Even loyal to central and provincial Pak government officials are as often as not murdered and unable to function outside of equivalent of well protected areas and cities..and even big cities ; the largest in North Pakistan is Peshawar, is infested with terrorists, bombings, murders, and fire fights of Taliban in groups with local police, Frontier Corp troops, regular Pak Army troops.
It is my crackpot theory that the worldwide recession, which overseas is already at depression proportions, is creating more suicide bombers and more and more of the poor over there have nothing to live for and religious terrorists are using their economic despair to "offer them Heaven on a bomb vest."
AFGHANISTAN as regards Pukhtun separatism is actually less of a problem than Pakistan as not only are the majority of Afghans Pukhtuns ethnically/tribally to begin with, but President Karzai himself is a Pukhtun.
Enough now from me, what say others of you or do you have questions, criticism, or want to narrow some of these shotgun blast statements from me? *Please overlook my many typos. Tks.
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1 Attachment(s)
George, a couple of questions
1. Are the Pashtuns a monolith (as in the very basic map attached), or are they divided into distinct sub-groups geographically ?
2. If sub-groups, which (if any) are cross-border living in both Pstan and Astan ?
3. If sub-groups, which are Taliban-influenced ?
4. Is the Taliban a monolith, or does it have its own factions ("hard" to "soft" or some such qualitative measure).
The overall question is whether there are Pashtun sub-groups which the US could work with directly.
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http://www.semp.us/images/Biot584PhotoG.bmp
This is a more detailed map of the overlapping mixes of ethnic groups in Northern Pakistan and Afghanistan, with Pukthuns clearly in the majority on both sides of this map.
Enlarge the map to see it better, maybe 11 different tribes, including Pukthuns, plus "others" catch all category.
Am doing more research to see if I can break down Pukhtuns into subtribes as you suggested.
http://pukhtunwomen.org/node/161
This PukhtunWomen website article uses 2007 US Army Manual info which does a very good job of breaking down into subtribes, etc. the Pukthuns in both Pakistan and Afghanistan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pashtun_Tribes
I will try to find mapping which overlays these many, many tribes, subtribes, but finding such a map may take more than tonight's Internet scan.
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George, thank you, for the start ...
Quote:
from GLS
I will try to find mapping which overlays these many, many tribes, subtribes, but finding such a map may take more than tonight's Internet scan.
and great links (especially the third); but this seems more of a life's work - very complex.
The general concepts in the Pashtun tribal structure are very familiar to me. This looks very much like the Gaelic Irish structure ca. 1100 - and to a lesser extent, the fused Gaelic Irish and Norman-Welsh structures that existed from ca. 1200 to 1600.
For example, the Pashtun kohols unit, explained here from the third of your links, based on gg-grandfather down, is much the same as the Gaelic Irish extended family structure under Brehon Law.
The Gaelic Irish structure was very much cross-linked (horizontally and vertically), but with a much smaller population. Suffice to say that the wrong step in one house could bring 100s of houses down on your head.
The Pashtun structure (as in the Irish based on genealogies, whether mythical or factual) has to be an order or two of magnitude more complex.
Perhaps, we should have a new MOS - genealogical officer in charge. :eek:
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Pakistani Blog update on Swat
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
George L. Singleton
George, God love ya, please -and in concise and relevant terms - provide the "why" Council members should blindly follow the links you provide, here and on other threads. Council members deserve at least that much - right? - Dave
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I second, with a recommendation.
George seems to have an interest in, special knowledge of, and generally to be well read on to, this locale and, particularly, the open source goings-on. Perhaps an ongoing "George's take on the Pakistani region" thread would be a good place to consolidate these occasional snippets. George's insights are interesting and I suspect that he has more knowledge of the region than many of us and probably has a different perspective. It would be a shame for his observations to go unread simply due to how they are presented.
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Reply to SWJED on line note
SWJED:
I have introed these websites/blogs in some detail in recent days/weeks, and have received several in the open as well as indiviudal e-mails exploring them further.
As the war on terrorism, my view, has since 9/11 been centered in the Pukhtun belt, ie, both Northern Pakistan and most all of Afghanistan, I thought this as well as the past history of Muslim press articles I have posted on SWJ from both the Peshawar FRONTIER POST and Karach DAWN helped explain this.
Of course, if you have another view and different interests, that is good, but some on here, beside me, are also interested in knowing about the core hot fighting areas which impact our future success, or failure, in relation to our alliance with Pakistan and the new government of Afghanistan, both of which are spinning like a top in relation to Pukhtun terrorist actions these articles address.
Hope this explanation helps, and again, others have shown both on line and individual e-mail interest in same.
I have tried to post these blog and related entries in areas of general as well as Afghanistan interest, and am always subject to having these posts moved to correct topical section, which does happen, which is great by me.
Yes, I, too, am a red headed Irishman myself.
Cheers.
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Truce in the Swat Valley
On the BBC earlier: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7891410.stm
From this faraway observation point this looks like the "stop and go" policy stance seen so often under President Musharraf and Pakistani Army rule. Except this time the agreement is between the Taliban and the NWFP provincial government.
davidbfpo
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Peshawar circa 1968
Hell, the AP is reading and plagerizing my quotes the bunch of cowards, most of whom write from over here about over there to begin with. They use native stringers in country who themsleves have often moved to Australian and write from there after "telephone" chats with the old boys back in the NWFP.
Here is a clip of Peshawar circa 1968 for those interested in same. I was in and out of Peshawar from 1963-1965, so this later date, 1968 clip is from a friend's cousin who served at my U-2 Base in Badabar after I had rotated stateside.
The US lost the lease (Operation Sandbag) for our intel and U-2 base at Peshawar/Badabar as of the start of 1969, when Pakistan swung into the Communist China economic and military alliance column.
http://www.vbs.tv/full_screen.php?s=...5DC&sc=1363196
http://www.pakdef.info/forum/archive...hp/t-3560.html
http://www.coldwar.org/text_files/Co...mesNov2008.pdf
http://www.6937th.50megs.com/
Enough already, right?
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BBC Panorama report
I missed this at the time of broadcasting (15th December 2008) by the BBC's premier documentary programme, Panorama and the reporter, Jane Corbin is good. It lasts 30; alongside the Pakistani Army and US Army explaining its actions the theme is on the wider apsects of UK CT having it's roots in Pakistan: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00g44l7
Some short clips of the terrain and interviews of failed suicide bombers too (later link made on suicide bombers thread).
davidbfpo
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bummer
Quote:
Originally Posted by
davidbfpo
I missed this at the time of broadcasting (15th December 2008) by the BBC's premier documentary programme, Panorama and the reporter, Jane Corbin is good. It lasts 30; alongside the Pakistani Army and US Army explaining its actions the theme is on the wider apsects of UK CT having it's roots in Pakistan:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00g44l7
Some short clips of the terrain and interviews of failed suicide bombers too (later link made on suicide bombers thread).
davidbfpo
Only available in the UK:(
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2/16/09 Peshawar FRONTIER POST lead story: SWAT!
US special envoy says Swat a real threat for all of us
Quote:
NEW DELHI (Reuters): An Islamist militancy in Pakistan's Swat region is a common threat to the United States, India and Pakistan, a special US envoy said on Monday, after meeting with India's foreign minister and top security officials. Seeking a greater role for India in stabilizing the region, Richard Holbrooke, the US envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan, said he discussed details of his visit last week to the two countries and shared his concerns about security. "For the first time in 60 years since independence your country and Pakistan, the US, all face an enemy that poses a direct threat to our leadership, our capitals and our people," Holbrooke told reporters in New Delhi.
As found now at: http://www.thefrontierpost.com/News....at=ts&nid=4073
The above lead front page story in the Peshawar Monday, Feb. 16, 2009 FRONTIER POST is worth the 30 seconds or less to read it. I have not been exaggerating how bad the Swat surrender by Pakistan is...it will be used now as a safe have (not on a common border with Afghanistan) to martial, train, and send terrorists into both Afghanistan and Kashmir/India side.
Grim continuing story of pro-Taliban flag ranks who run the Pak military and I repeat are undermining the President of Pakistan in the process, which means killing democracy and paving the way yet again for another military coup before the end of 2009 in Pakistan.
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Bummer: riposte
Not sure why the link did not work outside the UK. This link goes to the Panorama website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/panorama/hi/default.stm and then archived programmes for the item is: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00g44l7
If that fails (again) I can ask the BBC why somehow.
davidbfpo
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Link works fine for the site
Quote:
Originally Posted by
davidbfpo
Just the Britain's Terror heartland vid says UK only:(
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Young Pukhtuns identify new Taliban target areas
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/sh...60492post60492
Some of SWJ readers and commentators might be interested in particiular in message #1 found in the above blog site.
They are guesstimating that the Pakistani ISI backed Taliban will set up shop to attempt what I preceive to be another SWAT style coup from the named three locations.
They are apparently moving a few steps at a time, which means we should be able to stop them IF the President of Pakistan can figure out how to get the Chief of the Pakistani Army to control the ISI and truely fight the terrorists. Otherwise, it is a frustrating war on terrorism when you ally is simultaneously among your enemies.
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NYT condemns Pakistani action
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/17/wo..._r=1&th&emc=th
Once in a while even the NEW YORK TIMES gets it's facts straught.
The future of Swat the NYT suggests is a consolidated base for both the Taliban and al Qaida.
I agree with the TIMES in this article where they basically assess "excuses" being made by the Pak government as a pack of lies.
Moved here by davidbfpo and originally by George S.
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This is complicated, so the one caution that I would throw out to all is to neither assess this as a "loss" for the Government of Pakistan, nor as a "victory" for the Taliban. Both of those entities are made up of segments of the populace of Pakistan, which so far as been the big loser in this competition for their support.
I think the last two paragraphs are the most telling:
“The hardest task for the government will be to protect the Punjab against inroads by militants,” wrote I. A. Rehman, a member of the Human Rights Commission, in the daily newspaper, Dawn.
“Already, religious extremists have strong bases across the province and sympathizers in all arenas: political parties, services, the judiciary, the middle class, and even the media,” he wrote. “For its part, the government is handicapped because of its failure to offer good governance, guarantee livelihoods, and restore people’s faith in the frayed judicial system.”
The fact is, that there is only insurgency in Pakistan of this strength due to the enduring failure of the government of Pakistan to provide good governance (how the governance is perceived by the populace, not how effective it is assessed to be by itself or outsiders). I also contend that a government can not appease its own populace, that appeasement is when one makes concessions to an outside government at the expense of their own populace.
The real issue is how the Pakis follow up. This should provide some "maneuver space" with the populace that may well allow the government to extend greater security and services into the region. The fact that it is clearly counter to what the U.S. Government would want them to do also lends this move greater credibility with the target populace.
The cries of "Taliban sanctuary" are largely ignorant extremism; because the U.S. has make it very clear that we do not feel constrained in the slightest to conduct strike operations against Taliban and AQ targets in Pakistan. This deal does nothing to change that U.S. perspective.
The U.S. needs to support the Government of Pakistan in this move; helping to ensure that they make the most of the potential opportunities, and not allow this to in fact turn into the bad deal the naysayers are proclaiming it to be from inception.
Personally, and professionally, I am optimistic.
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"Pakistan Makes a Taliban Truce, Creating a Haven"
Reading:
Quote:
Pakistan Makes a Taliban Truce, Creating a Haven
The government announced Monday that it would accept a system of Islamic law in the Swat valley and agreed to a truce, effectively conceding the area as a Taliban sanctuary and suspending a faltering effort by the army to crush the insurgents.
The concessions to the militants, who now control about 70 percent of the region just 100 miles from the capital, were criticized by Pakistani analysts as a capitulation by a government desperate to stop Taliban abuses and a military embarrassed at losing ground after more than a year of intermittent fighting. About 3,000 Taliban militants have kept 12,000 government troops at bay and terrorized the local population with floggings and the burning of schools.
The accord came less than a week before the first official visit to Washington of the Pakistani army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, to meet Obama administration officials and discuss how Pakistan could improve its tactics against what the American military is now calling an industrial-strength insurgency there of Al Qaeda and the Taliban militants.
Jane Perlez, New York Times
I really get nightmares about what this will mean, let's say to the women in this area.
Perhaps I'm taking this too personally, and should all this 'be looked upon in another way'. I really do want to look at this kind of news in a more reasonable way, so here's an open invitation to share your responses ...
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Reply to Piranha in the Netherlands
Greetings and will attempt to offer one old trooper's views to answer some of your open ended question(s):
1. Recent successful drone attacks in other Northern Pakistan provinces and areas have been working and the Taliban wanted a safe have that does not have a common border with Afghanistan. SWAT meets their needs now and they have just managed to combine murder, threat of murder, suicide bombings, and having too many friends in high places in the Pakistani ISI (read that as Intelligence Service) and the upper ranks of the Pakistan Army..who have long been pro-Taliban and pro-al Qaida.
2. Your fears are well founded as this largely pits the Chief of Staff of the Pakistan Army against both the new President and new Prime Minister of Pakistan.
3. Now both the Taliban and al Qaida, for the moment at least, feel they are in a safer site, area is about the size of the US State of Delaware, have driven killed and/or driven out about 1/3 of the native Pukhtuns...the invading Taliban are of other subtribes and not native to Swat, and are deeply feared and resented by the differing Pukhtun subtrives inside and native to SWAT.
4. This in league with the terrorists action by the Pak government and Army, largely the Army is pulling these strings of surrender, invites more such capitulations and surrenders to the core of all this religious terrorism, Sharia Law, in other Northern parts of Pakistan.
5. Especially upsetting to me, since I served in the Peshawar and Karachi areas many years ago in our military, is that the capital of all of Pakistan, Islamabad, is not that many miles S-SW of SWAT and is full of radical madrassas itself, in fact, the Red Madrassah had a week long fire fight between the Pak Army and the Taliban teachers and students there in Islamabad about a year ago...which then President Musharraf put his career as President on the line to try to root them out...via the weeklong gunfight.
Your fears are well founded.
ASIDE: My wife and I met some very fine Dutch Special Forces while everyone was touring the Amiercan Cemetery at Normandy, France, summer, 2006. These Dutch were your special forces headed from that military leave weekend straight into Afghanistan. I and we over here appreciate our alliance and long term friendship with the government and all the people of Holland. Thank you to you and to all your countrymen. Colonel George L. Singleton, USAF, Ret.
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Adding to George's comment...
Perhaps because I listen to Radio Netherlands over WRN, I've long been aware of the heroic efforts of the Dutch in Afghanistan. I'm deeply embarrassed at the disparagement of their efforts (as well as the efforts of Canada and Australia) in certain segments of US society. Very few people in the US are aware that, proportionate to the population, the Dutch have suffered as significant a number of casualties as we have.
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We're getting several threads all going on this same topic, so I will just repost here an alternative viewpoint:
This is complicated, so the one caution that I would throw out to all is to neither assess this as a "loss" for the Government of Pakistan, nor as a "victory" for the Taliban. Both of those entities are made up of segments of the populace of Pakistan, which so far as been the big loser in this competition for their support.
I think the last two paragraphs are the most telling:
“The hardest task for the government will be to protect the Punjab against inroads by militants,” wrote I. A. Rehman, a member of the Human Rights Commission, in the daily newspaper, Dawn.
“Already, religious extremists have strong bases across the province and sympathizers in all arenas: political parties, services, the judiciary, the middle class, and even the media,” he wrote. “For its part, the government is handicapped because of its failure to offer good governance, guarantee livelihoods, and restore people’s faith in the frayed judicial system.”
The fact is, that there is only insurgency in Pakistan of this strength due to the enduring failure of the government of Pakistan to provide good governance (how the governance is perceived by the populace, not how effective it is assessed to be by itself or outsiders). I also contend that a government can not appease its own populace, that appeasement is when one makes concessions to an outside government at the expense of their own populace.
The real issue is how the Pakis follow up. This should provide some "maneuver space" with the populace that may well allow the government to extend greater security and services into the region. The fact that it is clearly counter to what the U.S. Government would want them to do also lends this move greater credibility with the target populace.
The cries of "Taliban sanctuary" are largely ignorant extremism; because the U.S. has make it very clear that we do not feel constrained in the slightest to conduct strike operations against Taliban and AQ targets in Pakistan. This deal does nothing to change that U.S. perspective.
The U.S. needs to support the Government of Pakistan in this move; helping to ensure that they make the most of the potential opportunities, and not allow this to in fact turn into the bad deal the naysayers are proclaiming it to be from inception.
Personally, and professionally, I am optimistic.
__________________
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
jmm99
and great links (especially the third); but this seems more of a life's work - very complex.
The
general concepts in the Pashtun tribal structure are very familiar to me. This looks very much like the Gaelic Irish structure ca. 1100 - and to a lesser extent, the fused Gaelic Irish and Norman-Welsh structures that existed from ca. 1200 to 1600.
For example, the Pashtun kohols unit, explained
here from the third of your links, based on gg-grandfather down, is much the same as the Gaelic Irish extended family structure under Brehon Law.
The Gaelic Irish structure was very much cross-linked (horizontally and vertically), but with a much smaller population. Suffice to say that the wrong step in one house could bring 100s of houses down on your head.
The Pashtun structure (as in the Irish based on genealogies, whether mythical or factual) has to be an order or two of magnitude more complex.
Perhaps, we should have a new MOS - genealogical officer in charge. :eek:
JMM, I nominate you openly on the SWJ to be our Geneological Officer in Charge. This said from this old Irishman to you as another younger Irishman.
Glad you like the sites I found of various levels of Pukhtun tribes, subtribes, etc. in this ongoing posting. Reading it up to a point once found gave me a huge headache and general dizzy feeling.
George
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George, the position is ....
Quote:
from GLS
JMM, I nominate you openly on the SWJ to be our Geneological Officer in Charge.
totally beyond my kin, my ken and my kith - but thanks for the thought. :D
Having said that, I hope there is someone in our command structure who is able to understand this item from post # 7 of the blog you cite above ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Batoor
Penjperies have very strong association with ISI.
Yes! Major Muhammad Aamir who is the son of Maulana Tahir,the founder of this sect is a well known retired Army officer & he was the head during mid-night Jakal operation ... now his elder brother Maulana Tayyeb is the head of this sect.
and to apply whatever measures are required to meet the challenge of the Penjperies - whoever they are. :o
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J-9 is, I think, the area of Genological Oversight!
When now retired four star General Fred Franks was a Brigadier they "created" a JCS-9 slot for him, which was a sort of catch all for goofy things like this tribal lineage stuff, among lesser on paper duties as best I can recall, that was back in 1990.
For details see: http://www.jfcom.mil/about/abt_j9.htm
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Hello to Bob
Thanks for your input Bob, which I read earlier vs. a posting of mine which DAVIDBFOP "kidnapped" in the wee hours our time, mid-moring London time, today.
My posting, which is fine, is now under David's banner but he gives me credit in the last line of my last paragraph.
David, I hope you appreciate my wry Irish sense of humor. My other ancient clans are English and Welch, so I am only half Irish, but that is enough to make me dangerous you know!
Bob, you may want to review my around 50 published letters in the Karachi DAWN through end of 2008 to see in part where I am coming from regarding Pakistan.
We do disagree as this surrender of SWAT at this time is based on my tracking of this mess ever since 9/11 a huge turning point for the worse. My opinion, but the indiginous folks over there telling me this right and left without me asking what they think. It is in letters daily in the Peshawar FRONTIER POST, which I treat as more relevant to NWFP topics vs. the DAWN, which is more of a Punjabi based English press, FP being Pukhtun family owned and managed. Etc.
Grim news to me and to those over there.
I have numerous e-mails dating back the past 18 months from those inside SWAT begging for US/UN ground forces intervention, which of course I don't favor but where else logically could these oppressed Pukhtuns think to turn, as their doubts of the Pak Army again and again are correct! The Pakistani top Army flag ranks sell out the locals/Pukhtuns over and over.
Does anyone remember the last throws of Musharraf's Presidencey? Treaty or treaties of peace with the Taliban which the Taliban broke within two weeks.
Does anyone remember early actions of the new President and Prime Minister of Pakistan? Treaties again in the frontier areas of Pakistan on the Afghan border which the Taliban again broke within weeks.
To those over there, their views to me, which repeat in summary here, these so called jiirgas and treaties are gifts of time to resupply, reform, and attack across the border into Afghanistan and to continue internal within N. Pakistan attacks against native Pukhtuns there.
This is not what I want to say, it is what thePukhtun and other tribes which are not Puktuns but minority locals are saying to me, over and over, in pretty gorry stories.
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Instant "non-freedom of the press" in SWAT 2/19/09
Slain Pak TV reporter had 32 bullet wounds
Thursday, 19 February , 2009, 12:19
Quote:
Islamabad: Thirty two bullets were pumped into TV reporter Musa Khan Khel in Pakistan's Swat Valley two days after Islamabad allowed the Taliban to impose Shariat (Islamic law) in the area, said Geo News executive editor Hamid Mir, adding a lot of radicals were unhappy with his coverage but "truth has to be reported".
Complete story ate below Internet site of murder of Pakistani local news reporter at site of so-called "Peace March" in Swat yesterday. Some way the Taliban observe "peace" there.
http://letusbuildpakistan.blogspot.com/
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Many thanks
Thanks for the well-informed supportive messages, as well as for the compliments to our Special Forces men. Perhaps I shouldn't be having nightmares, being angry is the better response ... 'shoulder-to-shoulder' ...
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You are most welcome
You are most welcome for acknowledging our replies to you.
Today you might be interested to know that:
1. The Presdident of Pakistan has yet to sign the treaty with the Taliban in Swat, and
2. likewise, the leadership of the Taliban also have not signed, either.
Pak President says (if this is dependable, who knows?) he will not sign until or unless all hostilites in Swat cease on the part of the Taliban. This, if a true statement by the Pak President, then means a signed treaty of peace is not, repeat not, likely with the Taliban, as these terrorist Pukhtuns are violent by daily nature and cannot control each other, ever. Discipline is not their "strong suit."
Have a good weekend.
George L. Singleton, Colonel, USAF, Ret.
Formerly of US Air Base at Badaber, nearby Peshawar,
Pakistan, and old US Embassy then in Karachi, Paksitan.
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Dawn newspaper: "US ‘troubled and confused’ about sharia deal: Holbrooke"
Quote:
US ‘troubled and confused’ about sharia deal: Holbrooke
Anwar Iqbal
Friday, 20 Feb, 2009 | 12:22 AM PST |
WASHINGTON: The United States was not sure if the Pakistani military and ISI backed President Asif Ali Zardari’s commitment to eradicate terrorist sanctuaries from the NWFP, the US special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan said on Thursday.
Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, in his first media interview since he returned from a fact-finding mission to South Asia earlier this week, said this issue ‘will be pursued at very high levels’ in US-Pakistan talks scheduled in Washington next week.
Ambassador Holbrooke also linked this week’s peace agreement in Swat to the military’s reluctance to support President Zardari’s anti-terrorism policies and said the US was ‘troubled and confused’ about this deal.
Unlike her special envoy, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton appeared more willing to give Pakistan a chance to explain how and why it concluded a deal with the militants in Swat.....
http://dawn.net/wps/wcm/connect/Dawn...-holbrooke--bi
Copyright © 2009 - Dawn Media Group
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Swat Valley reporting
A first-hand report by The (London) Times to the valley: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle5780438.ece
Grim reading.
davidbfpo
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Grim reading indeed
Sigh.
Thanks for sharing this Davidbfpo, grim reading indeed.
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Thoughts about Swat and related "stuff"
Quote:
Originally Posted by
davidbfpo
David et al:
This article epitomizes in part the desperate interpersonal e-mails I have been getting for over two years out of Swat now. The anti-Taliban/anti-al Qaida good people get my e-mail address from often printed letters to the editor from and by me in the Peshawar FRONTIER POST and I am of course careful/they ask me to be so, not to disclose their e-mail addresses as they say for sure it would lead to their murder by the Taliban/al Qaida.
Driving wedges among and between the Taliban and al Qaida, who are all Sunnis, should not be so hard, as the Taliban who write and have "their" letters published in the FRONTIER POST or who allow the FP to do telephone interviews with them...and those Taliban who write, in English and in Pushto, on Global Hujra Online...in general do not, repeat don't like "Arabs" who many Pukhtuns, both Taliban and non-Taliban alike, view as much as "invaders" as we are allegedly so viewed.
Up until now al Qaida has relied on and used the fact of in common Muslim Sunni belief and customs to seek and claim shelter and safe harbor. This is a topic that needs hard work to crack that "fellow Muslim" hospiality nut. It won't be easy as he damned Taliban tolerated al Qaida to the point to being tossed out of power by force by us!
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Pukhtuns comments Feb. 21 GLOBAL HUJRA ONLINE series of P
There is more than a little intereting reading here...Darmand is an Afghan Pukhtun, but most of the other comments come from Pakistani Pukhtuns inside Swat, in the Peshwar area, and from Pukhtuns living in Europe.
SIDE NOTE BY GEORGE: Many of the Pukhtuns in Afdghanistan and in Pakistan are of the same families and tribes, as most of you already know.
There are some interestisng topical cross links, too.
http://www.khyberwatch.com/forums/sh...60874post60874
On balance, IF one used these postings you have to conclude that the majority of Pukhtuns from and in Swat hate the Taliban and are desperate as in they don't know what to do?
FYI.
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crack that "fellow Muslim" hospiality nut
Thank you once again Mr. Singleton.
To you and everyone reading along,
About 15 years ago I was in contact with a Sufi group in my own country, which was and is very much involved in interfaith dialogue. Whenever I wanted to share in their dhikr-meetings, I could count on the hospitality of one of their members afterwards.
One time their leader told me something that imho is worth sharing with you all: "Bad people have no problems finding each other doing bad things, that's a real problem, but perhaps an even bigger problem is that we good people are sometimes so critical of one another that it prevents us from doing that many good things that this might be a counter-weight."
We need every ally we can get.
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Swat Valley - another angle
Another report on the valley, citing an expatriate resident who runs a local radio station: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...at-valley.html
Adds in other commentary.
davidbfpo