Indicators how militancy will go
This short WoTR piece looks interesting, the opening passage may give a clue why:
Quote:
When it comes to Pakistan’s bad guys, leaders of the country’s major militant groups—such as Hafiz Saeed of Lashkar-e-Taiba and Mullah Fazlullah of the Pakistani Taliban—tend to hog the headlines. Many more are less well known—yet still highly consequential. Five in particular are worth singling out—not just because they threaten stability, but because they foreshadow Pakistani militancy’s future trajectory.
The evolution of this trajectory will likely feature five distinct trends: Uncompromisingly violent anti-state militant factions constraining Pakistani government peace efforts; associations with a resilient al-Qaeda that remains fixated on both local and global targets; a re-emergence of India-focused militancy; sectarian extremists with strong political influence and associations with the state attempting to earn legitimacy from an increasingly radicalized society; and state assets violently turning on their patrons at a time when the Pakistani security establishment can ill afford new sources of unrest. The five men described below each exemplify one of these trends
Link:http://warontherocks.com/2014/05/fiv...-attention-to/
Stop, Go and now is it GO?
I nearly missed this:
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Pakistan's military said it had ordered thousands of ground troops into its most restive region on Sunday evening, launching its long-awaited ground offensive to clear North Waziristan of terrorist bases. The operation is named Zarb-e-Azb after one of the Prophet Mohammed's swords.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...militants.html
Stop, Go and now the targets have gone?
Christine Fair in a sharp commentary on WoTR on Pakistan's offensive into North Waziristan, which ends with:
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There is no likelihood that the Pakistan army will decide to shut down its support to the menagerie of Islamist militants operating in and from Pakistan. Therefore it’s difficult to not conclude that many innocent Pashtuns will die, lose their property, and remain in camps for internally displaced persons so that the Pakistan army can—once again—fool its citizenry and the international community all the while continuing to play the double game that it plays so well. Yes. We’ve seen this show before. And it never has a satisfying ending.
Link:http://warontherocks.com/2014/07/the...isappointment/
Some Jihadists change their approach
Readers of this thread will recall my use of 'Stop, Go and now is it GO?' or similar. The following report suggests that some jihadists may have adopted 'Stop, selective Go and be nice'.
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One of Pakistan's most deadly Taliban groups (The Punjabi Taliban) has abandoned its armed struggle and announced it will focus on a peaceful campaign calling on the country to adopt Islamic sharia law.
The Punjabi Taliban is believed to have carried out a number of significant terrorist attacks, including the 2009 assault on the Pakistan army's general headquarters in Rawalpindi, in which nine soldiers were killed; the commando raid on the Sri Lankan cricket team in the same year, and the 2011 attack on the naval airbase at Mehran in which 18 servicemen and two US-donated aircraft were destroyed.
.. the organisation would now limit its use of force to "infidel forces" and would focus on promoting sharia law....would continue to operate in Afghanistan but would focus on "Dawat Tablig" preaching and called on other Taliban factions to abandon their insurgencies in Pakistan.
Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-Pakistan.html
I am sure the causes of this apparent change are many. Including the tradition of temporary compromises on both sides, with ceasefires, compensation, prisoner releases and the like. Now do we see the "hand" of ISI here?
In Pakistan IS makes its debut
An article from Kings War Studies other blog Strife, by a PhD student Zoha Waseem: 'The arrival of IS in Pakistan and the politics of the caliphate':http://strifeblog.org/2014/09/26/the...the-caliphate/
She draws together a variety of sources and her own knowledge. As if Pakistan didn't have enough problems already, along come the well-funded IS trying to make an impact.
Pakistan's bewildering array of militants
A welcome BBC article, which opens with:
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The sacking of Pakistani Taliban (TTP) spokesman Shahidullah Shahid for supporting Islamic State is the latest sign of divisions in an already fragmented militant movement. Over the years Pakistan's insurgents have spawned a bewildering array of splinter groups and factions, reports M Ilyas Khan.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-29724771