Certain truths are so real that they can only be consumed through sarcasm and humor. As brother Ted will attest.Quote:
Originally Posted by slapout9
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Certain truths are so real that they can only be consumed through sarcasm and humor. As brother Ted will attest.Quote:
Originally Posted by slapout9
Did we ask you, Advanced Persistent Troll? Tell your Guoanbu friends to gfy for me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dayuhan
So far, the published speculation of the form "home grown group or individual who wanted to "start a revolution" in the US against the government" has come from a variety of hard Left types in "respectable" venues who (at least the honest ones) are expressing a hope that it's some conservative, white male. Their expressed concern is that if a foreign (or Islamist) terrorist or group is responsible, it will derail the agenda.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon
I won't link to the sites because such contemptible blather shouldn't be promoted in any way.
They only thing we KNOW is that some psychotic(s) set bombs that killed and maimed a lot of people. We can be confident that if and when we catch up to him/her, he will have some blather about why he/she was justified. If anyone wants to pre-blame a particular part of the domestic political spectrum, then be intellectually honest enough to acknowledge that, when the facts are in, their condemnation will attach to WHICHEVER part of the spectrum the psycho(s) profess adherence to.
(Anyone who want to disagree gets to hear my "theory" as to why it was pro-choice activists trying to punish supporters of "Run for the Cure" because the Koman Foundation tried to pull funding for Planned Parenthood.)
I am curious (and I know this is a site where someone will know such things): How likely is it for a bombing to remain unsolved in the United States? I read somewhere that there were multiple bombings per year in the US in the 1970s (usually with little or no loss of life); how many remained unsolved? I assume low profile casualty-less bombings may not attract a lot of resources, but what about bombings which resulted in deaths or injuries? How many remain unsolved?
I ask because I wrote on someone's facebook page (he is a psychiatrist who proposed, perhaps in jest, that this may have been the act of a disabled person who hates superfit marathoners) that "in any case, we will know soon"...then started thinking, will we?
What do the experts say?
Omar:
I am no expert but I know that a lot of the bombings in the US in the old days were labor and mob related. As such I would be surprised if many were solved.
Slap, Stan and Selil are the men I think.
Some years back I worked on a couple of programs that were looking into ways to harden high value targets. Bombs were an obvious avenue of attack, so we looked into the records from various government agencies (FAA, FBI, ATF, etc.).
Bombings that were grudge motivated (my term), such as "judge decided against me," "bast@rds fired me," "dirt bag cheating on me," etc. were usually solved, often pretty quickly.
Those that were politically motivated took a lot longer. Some never got solved. It depends on the expertise, discipline, skill and goals of the perpetrators, as well as the effectiveness of law enforcement and intelligence organizations.
One thing that did surprise me was the dramatic, wide difference between the number of bombing incidents that actually occur, and the number that make the national news.
Things are a whole lot better than in the 70s and I understand the FBI Cold Case Unit is still looking into those too. Go to their website and search for cold cases involving explosives. Not that many are there.Quote:
Originally Posted by omarali50
Forensics and X-ray to mention a few are so far advanced that we can pull DNA off of a burned and charred wire, piece of cloth, metal, etc. Within seconds using X-spray, I can tell you what the explosive compound was and be 90% correct. Not that I will know the exact amounts of the individual chemicals and compounds, but close enough.
Some explosives-related cases here are eight years old, but we are still at it. Sometimes there's just a single item missing from putting the case to bed. We chased our Estonian mad bomber for nearly five years and he knew it. Some of his devices were found and destroyed before he got to employ them. He got smart one day and placed a vintage calculator board along side his explosives thinking it would make him look like something out of a movie with high tech motherboards and fancy wiring. What he had not realized, was his board remained intact post blast and the remainder of the vintage calculator was later found in his basement. Gotcha you SOB :D
Hunt for Suspects, Motives in Boston Bombing 'Wide Open'
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NYT reports that it was a black powder device that used kitchen type egg timers to set them off:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/17/us...it_th_20130417Quote:
The pressure cookers were filled with nails, ball bearings and black powder, and the devices were triggered by “kitchen-type” egg timers, one official said.
People keep saying these were 'rudimentary' devices so as to denigrate them. It seems to me that making a device out of commonly available materials is a good way to avoid leaving a trail or drawing attention while preparing. The materials in this may have been rudimentary but the effects and the malevolent brain work were not.
The materials used in 9-11, box cutters, were rudimentary but the concept behind the op and the effects were not.
Good points, Carl !Quote:
Originally Posted by carl
I would also point out that as primitive (albeit very effective) as the 7/7 bombings (devices) were, a single store receipt found near a train station trash bin led to the store where such rudimentary items can be commonly bought. The store owner ID'd the purchaser and the rest is history.
Pay me no mind, but I'll wait for something more specific than that of the NYT as a source ;)
I started my Law Enforcement career when all that was going on, things are bad now but they have been a lot worse believe it or not:eek:. I would research a group called "The Weathermen" also the "The SDS" (students for a Democratic society). The reason I want go into more detail is a lot of the suspects essentially escaped justice and went on to positions of influence inside our present Government and other Institutions. You can find out some of that info and their present status when you research the radical groups I mentioned. Here is a link to one such person http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_AyersQuote:
Originally Posted by omarali50
Indeed, sixties radicals sometimes did very well in later life. To some extent that is a function of class; if you come from a better-off, highly educated background, then your chances of recovering from a crime (any crime) are much better. http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...your-kids.html. Leftists recover using left wing sympathies and networks, but I would bet that rich people in general dont do too badly.
Authorities Arrest Suspect in Boston Bombings
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Hmmm, I would argue that they end up being targeted. They do here, each and every day. Hard to squeeze a middle class man out of something he does not have !Quote:
Originally Posted by omarali50
Good to know ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Stan
All technological advances in warfare, economy and police work seem to be relative in the sense that absolute performance does increase but what matters how well are you doing against your enemy, competitor or criminal SOB. Good to hear that it in this context things are going into the right direction.
In this specific case the amazing amount of visual data stored on phones, cameras and so forth should help the investigation a good deal. Most of that should be tagged with time and location. It seems highly unlikely that there is no visual trace about how those bombs got there and no intel to extract.
P.S: Just read that a suspect got arrested based on two videos. It is obviously only part of the story, in any case hopefully they got the right person.
Slap:
For the last two or three hours the news has been reporting an 'arrest is imminent' or 'an arrest has been made' or 'there has been no arrest' or 'there is somebody who they are interested in' and on and on. Is this a case of various officers who may or may not know anything getting played by or playing some reporterette or 'ettes?
According to our sites, there are no suspects in custody as of 5 minutes ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by Firn
Slap can check me on this but that video stuff often sounds a lot better than it is. Most of it by necessity shoots from the top down and you can hinder it with a hat. Ground level stuff will be cluttered with intervening bodies. They undoubtedly will get some good evidence from all the photos and videos but it ain't magic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Firn
An accident at the Reno Air races involving a P-51 was an example though of video proving to be of vital importance in finding a cause. If you look at the NTSB report it is filled with extremely detailed images, some of parts actually failing in flight. The report is fascinating. The aircraft was N79111 if you want to find it on the net.
IMO it is a media F*** up of the highest magnitude......all those contracted highly paid expert consultants with their phony and or obsolete LE contacts just stepped in a big pile of it. It is really pathetic:(Quote:
Originally Posted by carl
IMO getting the photo/video is the easy part and the FBI has all that super duper stuff to enhance everything to a point that is truly incredible compared to when I was working the street...... BUT!!! getting a name to go with the picture is the hard part!!!! that can take a while.Quote:
Originally Posted by carl
After the all the analysis the NYT reports:Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/18/us...pagewanted=allQuote:
...in the end, it apparently came down to a bitter local grudge. A former justice of the peace whose legal and political career collapsed in a hard-fought legal battle was accused Wednesday of killing the two prosecutors, who had been his courtroom rivals. And his wife not only named him as the gunman, but also confessed to having been the driver in both shootings as part of her role in the vendetta, the authorities said.
A sensible BBC report 'The Boston Marathon bomber: Caught on film?' and the role of the body the National Digital Multimedia Evidence Processing Lab (unclear whether a public or private body):http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22191029
Missing from the article is any mention of the level of human and technical resources needed, thousands of hours of footage take a very long time to assemble, analyse etc to an evidential standard.
Our experience is that CCTV is not the "magic wand" in crime detection; I cannot recall a good commentary on the value of mass citizen footage.
Useful info-graphic from the NYT. What is not noted on it though, is that the entrance for the out-bound side of Copley Station is on the corner of Boylston and Dartmouth St. Under 500 ft from the first bomb and the finish line.
By outbound, do you mean out of the city?
A comment by Bill Bratton via WSJ, who was with Boston PD and is in London in his advisory role. Nothing startling:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...Tabs%3Darticle
I am sure the SWJ Editor published the article 'Case Study: The IRA’s Hyde and Regent's Parks Attacks in London, July 20, 1982' by an EOD veteran as it was - sadly - topical. It makes an interesting comparison with this bombing, notably over the first responders, lack of witnesses and difficulties in assembling an evidential case:http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art...n-july-20-1982
Two RUSI analysts have added a commentary, which draws on Jennifer Cole's expertise in emergency management:http://www.rusi.org/analysis/comment...516D53C0587A4/
Correct, away from "downtown" or the center of the city. Here is a map of the MBTA system - Copley Station is where E-branch of the Green Line converges/splits with the other three branches of the Green Line.Quote:
Originally Posted by carl
Unlike other stations, you must go outside and cross the street if you want to switch inbound/outbound tracks at Copley Station. You cannot use the Boylston and Dartmouth St entrance for the inbound track. The inbound entrance is on the other side of Boylston St. near the middle of the library.
Every crime scene has 2 things left behind, the physical evidence and the perpetrator(s) behavior. I have listed the first 3 three and still think they are accurate. The fourth is escape behavior. Nobody has claimed credit....that is revealing in itself in that it involves escape behavior meaning these people X or group X had and apparently have a prepared get away method to evade their capture. OK turn yourn flame throwers on and poke some holes in the theory!Quote:
Originally Posted by slapout9
Thanks for the info about the potential visual evidence. Doesn't the relative recent and wide incorporation of GPS in a sorts of camera devices as well as all that wireless geolocating help to filter and organize the data? Still a lot of images to look at and maybe it doesn't come as a surprise that the first lead based on images comes from CCTV. They should be far better integrated into the various organisations and procedures.
@davidbfpo: I think in this case the stakes are high and the ressources invested huge as it is certainly not your regular street robbery. While all those cameras did in this case nothing to detect and prevent the crime they should a good job at supporting the investigation.
P.S: A friend from home and his company do for a couply of years now create seamless 360°/180° pcictures of crime scenes for the regional police. They use the same technology internationally for different purposes as well.
I wondered why no claims of credit. I never thought of that, that they wouldn't make any until the perps were safe...out of the country and in a position to make a videotape. You southern boys think good.Quote:
Originally Posted by slapout9
Unfortunately, it seems these perps are good too.
Carl and Slap,
What if they never claim responsibility? What if the fruit cake simple got off on it and is long gone.
Tons of things happen over here each week with not a stinking sole claiming responsibility.
Why all the significance on some Delta Hotel claiming responsibility ? Gives us a direction to search in ? Assuming somebody else decides to claim first ?
Oddly enough, the cameras from the Lord & Taylor department store have been reported to have the best coverage of the second blast, which occurred across the other side of the street. They put up the cameras covering the street because they were getting hit by rip-and-run thefts – people would dash out the street exit w/ arms full of merchandise into waiting cars. The cameras could catch the license plates.Quote:
Originally Posted by Firn
Just thinking and speculating. I am an old man and that is what old men do.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stan
You could be very right. If there is a political angle to it, if, then claiming responsibility is pretty important. If there is no political angle to it, there is no need. Serial killers don't claim responsibility often.
Or because they aren't in a position to leave the country and claiming credit would consequently be not a very smart thing to do. No reason to assume that someone from outside the country was or wasn't responsible.Quote:
Originally Posted by carl
I am sure it would be helpful as long as there is a recognition of the limitations. My handheld GPS sometimes gets accuracy within three to four meters with WAAS activated, clear skies, and no tall buildings around. If I understand correctly, some mobile phones are also GPS devices but many figure location via proximity to WiFi hotspots and cell towers. Timestamping is also an issue to consider. Not everyone has the time set correctly on their camera or mobile device.Quote:
Originally Posted by Firn
After an initial sorting via the EXIF data a visual inspection would turn up a percentage of images taken with devices with the time set wrong. And to be thorough, there would be the need to sort through the images to see if any were excluded from the pile for the same reason. As with any data reduction, getting the last little bit is time-consuming as all get out.
Looking at the pictures and adding to that no claim of credit, the choice of target and the specific location, I am going to speculate that this was not terrorism at all. It was two college kids, probably from Harvard or MIT, who just wanted to kill people and see if they could get away with it. They picked a location they knew would be filmed so they could watch their handiwork over and over again.
Regarding the absence to date of a claim for responsibility. There is a serious disadvantage in using modern electronic means of communication, especially if all the US agencies are looking for a clue. Posting a letter remains largely anonymous if done with care. Is anyone checking "snail" mail?
The pressure is now going up as the FBI have released CCTV and stills of two backpacking adult males:http://imgur.com/a/wRl0g
Thank you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dayuhan
Regarding the photos of the suspects. Black hat has the bill of the cap worn forward and is wearing sunglasses. White hat let his sense of style get the better of him. He is wearing his ball cap backwards and is not wearing sunglasses. Lapse of discipline.
Possibly. I imagine such a decision does not happen overnight; there would be a series of other incidents escalating up to this attack – some non-lethal bombings and/or solo murders somewhere in their history.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon
Serial killers tend to start out with animals.
Nah. That is an ego trip. I would think part of the trip would be having a cool device to brag about. These devices weren't cool, they just worked. I think the minds behind this were looking for something in addition to ego enhancement.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon
But my spec is just spec too.
Yeah, but that has its contradictions. If the point is to kill in a manner that there is no to track it back to you then you don't want something cool nor are you really going to brag - it is between you and your buddy. You have two bombs so that neither was in a position to be able to rat out the other. Just coming from there that town is full of college kids who are sure they know more than everyone else and are infallible. If all you wanted to do was kill you could do that at any shopping mall, but the placement of these bombs ensures they get great video for free from the internet without having to do anything other than download it like hundreds of thousands of other people. You and your buddy can watch it over and over again to your dark heart's content.Quote:
Originally Posted by carl
I guess I just can't see a good reason to attack this event. The day has meaning in both being tax day and Patriots day (and probably a hundred other anniversaries that have meaning to someone). But if it was tied to an attack on the US government by a homegrown group why not attack a federal building? The event is a international event but if that was your aim than why not attack when the winner was crossing the finish line? I am just not seeing a lot of international value to an attack four hours into the race. Plus no one is taking credit. Political terrorism is usually tied to some aim. It losses value if it is not tied to a cause or is not part of a larger barrage of attacks intended to cause widespread fear and panic. I guess I am not seeing a political or ideological tie in here. Seems murder is as good a reason as any.
Those qualities are in no way unique to college kids, and generally don't lead to mayhem on this scale. Possible, yes... but probable?Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon
They might have felt that a Federal building would be more likely to have some sort of security or surveillance system in place, and that there would be more of a security presence at the marathon when the winners were coming in. If you're looking for a soft target with significant visibility the tail end of an open air athletic event is a reasonable candidate. Of course a parade would be as good or better, but we obviously don't know the thinking involved. It may have been the most appealing target available in a given time window. It's not just a question of who they wanted to target, but of what sort of target they thought (not necessarily for entirely logical reasons) would give them the best chance of getting away with it.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon
At this point most of the speculation tells us more about the inherent prejudices of those doing the speculating than it does about the bombing: people will suspect whoever they are personally inclined to suspect. At this point nobody knows: it could be foreign or domestic, it could be from any number of different ideological extremes, it could be non-ideological. Best to keep an open mind until more information is available.
I personally hope it will turn out to be domestic, regardless of ideology, simply because I'd hate to see more overseas military complications, but that's hope, not expectation or assumption.
I do think that as the US draws down in Afghanistan there will be significant risk of major attack from jihadi sources, simply because the jihadis need to keep US boots on Muslim ground, but that's just an opinion.
There are a lot of reasons to attack this event I think. First, it was an easy target and there was an escape route right there as Bourbon pointed out. Second, picking that particular spot insured there would be video that would be flashed around the world without having to lift a finger, even though the famous runners had finished hours before. Third, that the international types had left already is a good thing if you are playing to an international audience, you made sure you would mostly kill and maim Yanks, the occasional Chinese notwithstanding. Fourth, the Boston Marathon is known throughout the world, just like Times Square or the Twin Towers were so it would play as a symbolic strike at the US. Maybe the marathon isn't known to the extent those were but it is known in a lot of countries because those countries have runners there and their media will report on how they do.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon
A disadvantage too is all the video available. They had to know that they would be photographed during the event and probably there is video evidence of them rehearsing the route in the days and weeks beforehand. But they didn't care. White hat was so insouciant about it he wore his hat backwards (or maybe he just forgot). But if they already had a good escape route set up, as Slap suggested, they wouldn't care because they might figure they would be long gone by the time the video evidence was processed to the point where their photos were circulated. The names of those guys will be known within hours now but if they are gone, why should they care. Or maybe too they will make a last stand like the guys in Spain did.
Figure this speculative scenario. They do their op and get out of the country by a preplanned route. They make it back to someplace in which they feel safe. That might take a few days or weeks. Then when they get back they make a video 'splaining what they did and how and why they did it. That would play huge in various countries throughout the world. They hit the Yanks and they got out and got away with it. It wouldn't matter if in a few years or months we got them. Their hero status would have already been established and if they got killed they would be martyred heroes.
And then again I may be entirely wrong about it all and it was a couple of guys who were upset because the Starbucks customers had been undertipping them for years.
http://www.barstoolsports.com/boston...as-gone-viral/
Releasing the images is paying dividends already.
This picture which has gone viral, places the white-hat suspect on the same block as the second bomb at the intersection of Boylston and Fairfield, turning onto Newbury St - after what looks like the explosion of the second bomb.
* Could be Photoshoped, but it isnt using the FBI released photos.
Reports of active shooter at MIT... Breaking. Reported MIT police officer.
At a bar across the bridge, now.
May be unrelated to bombing. Also had false report of gunman on MIT campus last month.
Why would you assume that they're leaving the country? Wouldn't the simplest explanation for the absence of any claim of responsibility be that the perpetrators are still in the country, have no intention of leaving, and don't want to provide evidence that might point to their identity or location?Quote:
Originally Posted by carl
Because.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dayuhan
No.
Gunfire & explosions reported in Watertown....breaking on Mass tv.
Interesting? One of the photos I saw was one of the bombs placed near a USA Government mailbox:eek::eek: those things are made out of solid steel in order to contain a mail bomb:eek::eek: in other words that was an amateur place to put the bomb, it had to block or deflect a great deal of the blast. Not something a pro would do but a amateur-wannabe-big shot-college kid.......maybe.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon
S##t is going down in Watertown...