No one said it's gonna be easy
Radical Islamist in Mali used the same old strategy: vanish to come back and destabilise. This week end combats erupted in Gao.
France bombs Islamist hideout in Mali
Quote:
GAO, Mali — France bombed Islamist targets in northern Mali on Monday following a string of guerrilla attacks by the extremists a month after Paris launched an offensive to drive them from its former colony.
In a pre-dawn attack, witnesses said a French army helicopter destroyed a central police station in the northern city of Gao from where rebels from the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) had opened fire from the station on Malian troops Sunday, sparking an hours-long street battle.
Sunday's attack was the first large-scale urban guerrilla assault on territory reclaimed by French-led forces.
It started early in the afternoon when Malian soldiers clashed with Islamists in the city centre, near the governor's offices and the police station, which the rebels had used as the headquarters of their "Islamic police" until French-led forces recaptured Gao on January 26.
A witness said the gunmen had hidden in the empty police station then attacked Malian soldiers when they arrived, as snipers hidden in surrounding buildings opened fire.
He said that after a fierce gunbattle, French troops had intervened.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...b16cbd985e.4d1
I believe the response was ready since long... I tend to disagree with the idea that european (basically the French) are not ready or facing difficulties as it is said in various news papers. The objective is to reconquere territory, free hostages and pass the ball to the AU and UN. That's most probably were the difficulty is not on the ground.
MALI and the ghost of 21st century military failure:
Canada just announced that Mali was on the way to turn like Iraq or Afghanistan. Canada position, which is non fully decided yet, is echoing the “fear” of several experts across the Atlantic Ocean.
Mali threatens to become another Afghanistan: Canada
Quote:
"I am very cautious about sending in potentially thousands of Canadian troops to Malian soil ... to what is already is amounting to a counter-insurgency. We're not at the drop of a hat going to get into another Afghanistan," Baird told a parliamentary committee.
"On one side we have a military government that took power in a coup last year and on the other side an al Qaeda affiliate. I don't think they're going to sign on for a peacekeeping mission," Baird said.
"It's very much going to be an insurgency on the ground like we've seen in Iraq and like we've seen in Afghanistan."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...91B1CK20130212
It is difficult to deny the fact the risk exists and a failure in Mali would have greater strategic impact than actually foreseen. That said, it is important to consider the terrain and situation on the ground. Mali is not Afghanistan and the French lead coalition certainly not the US lead coalition in Iraq.
Why?
First of all, Mali is a well known country with well known opponent and radical armed groups. There is nobody new in that game. Unlike in Afghanistan, the nationalist Tuareg demands do not concur with the radical Islamist political agenda. In fact, it is AQ who seized the occasion to infiltrate the Tuareg rebellion. Just listen to the Tuareg youth reaction after AQ departure and you’ll understand. AQ Islam, which is driven by radical Arab Islam, has neither consideration nor respect for the West Africa Islam which integrates parts of the local believes. West Africa Islam, even radical, is deeply tainted by Sufism and local animist believes. There is a strong desagreement between radical Islamist and the population on what is Islam and what is Sharia, unlike in Afghanistan.
Secondly, Mali domestic political situation is not comparable to post Saddam Iraq or post Taliban Afghanistan. Regime change (for the best or the worst) was induced domestically, for domestic reasons, without external support. The French and Chadians, and US, in Mali did not defeat the Mali government but came to the rescue. The insurgency Canada is speaking of is just the attempt by a small number of radical combatants to get back what they once hold for several weeks: just the time needed to alienate the local population against their practices of Islam. But it is true that the Tuareg political agenda remains and is part of the solution.
Well, are you going to really help brothers?
This may indicate at least one African leader is impatient with other nations:
Quote:
Chad's President Idriss Deby appealed to West African leaders on Wednesday to urgently speed up deployment of their forces to northern Mali where Chadian and French forces are locked in bitter fighting with al Qaeda-linked rebels. Chad's contingent of some 2,400 troops has borne the brunt of battles with die-hard Islamists holed up in the Adrar des Ifoghas mountains..most African units remain in southern Mali...
Link:http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article...30227?irpc=932
The Chadian military have been reported as being professional and well versed in fighting in such conditions - unlike some of the others who IMHO will prefer to remain in comfort.
How the ECOWAS contribution can become a UN mandated peacekeeping force is beyond me, this is an enforcement mission. ECOWAS want others to pay them, step forward the UN.
When the Jihad Came to Mali
Hat tip to Andrew Lebovich on Twitter for identifying this NY Review of Books:http://www.nybooks.com/articles/arch...gination=false
Andrew's comment:
Quote:
This is some very interesting Mali reporting from Joshua Hammer, raises some questions, confirms a few things...My biggest question with the Hammer piece is about some of the sourcing for specific claims.
Created by the god of rebellion
A Le Monde article which has promise, but disappoints. That aside it does explain what is happening in parts of Northern Mali:
Quote:
Those who have had the opportunity there to agree on one point: Adrar Tigharghar seems to have been specially created by the god of rebellion for shelter combatants in war against conventional forces.
Link:http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/articl...0262_3212.html
A very capable local partner
An article from CSM on the Chadian military:
Quote:
The Chadians have proved to be a useful partner not only because of their decades of experience fighting in a similar climate and terrain, but because they have spent much of the past decade fighting a panoply of rebel groups in their own country, many of which preferred to operate as light and mobile units, using tactics similar to those currently employed by the jihadis in Mali.
Then there is an ex-DoD regional expert, Rudy Atallah:
Quote:
It depends how you define effective. In terms of aggressive team players supporting the French, they are doing a great job. If the definition is based purely on capability to continue the fight on their own, I don't think they can survive. Chadian troops are a blunt edge and good scouts for the French, but they couldn't be as effective without French intel, guidance, and air power.
Link:http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Afric...ner-for-France
Now the Swiss have a role too
There have several examples in African conflicts that small European nations have been able to assist a dialogue and peace. That Switzerland has a role in Mali does come as a surprise:
Quote:
The Point.fr revealed this week that two members of the Democratic Union of the Centre (UDC), a formation belonging to the ruling coalition had challenged the Swiss government, stating that, "according to a reliable source," the soldiers an elite Swiss have spent two months in Mali . The information was denied by an official, but not by the defense minister nor his counterpart Foreign Affairs.
There is more on the link:http://www.lepoint.fr/monde/mali-la-...1638207_24.php
Who’s on First? Or Why Fences Matter More Than Al-Qaeda in Mali
Who’s on First? Or Why Fences Matter More Than Al-Qaeda in Mali
Entry Excerpt:
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Fair Market Value and French Intervention
Hey MAL,
I conclude (using the utmost of post hoc, propter hoc logic) from this in your link:
Quote:
January 9, at the time of the lightning attack of the djihadists towards the south of the country, the promised reward would be raised to 1 million francs CFA (1520 euros) in the event of conquest of Sevare, strategic suburb of Mopti. It is this raid which precipitated the French military intervention.
that, once the price of poker exceeds 1500 euros per head, one can expect arrival of the TdM and Legion. ;)
Now, why didn't the US think of that as a standard for intervention ? :o
Faith hasn't been much of a payer since Martin Luther nailed his thesis re: indulgences and benefices to the Church's door.
Regards
Mike
And drugs bought plenty to Mali
Andrew Lebovich has written a FP article 'Mali’s Bad Trip: Field notes from the West African drug trade', which covers much of the pre-coup information and adds what happened afterwards:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...trip?page=full
The impact of new wealth and the "oil" of corruption account in his judgement for much of the public support for the coup in Mali; removing an incompetent, corrupt government.