How long will crisis last?
A coup in Mali is clearly quite different to other African coups:
Quote:
President Amadou Toumani Toure said on Wednesday that he remained in the country, free and in good health
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17562066 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17543387
As the Tuaregs advance diplomats in ECOWAS are stirring themselves, threatening economic sanctions and in Mali itself the banks are busy as deposits are withdrawn.
The 'fall' of Timbucktu: the implications?
KingJaJa,
Yes the 'fall' of Timbucktu has been reported by the BBC: Newshttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17576725
You added:
Quote:
What are the implications?
Typing aloud then I would suggest these:
a) the impact within Mali on the new regime - nearly 500 miles away - and how much Mali and the people think the city is worth
b) will the reported dtente between the rebels and local Arabs hold?
c) the impact on the calculus of ECOWAS on imposing sanctions and possibly intervention. Will petrol supplies be cut-off notably; no fuel, no combat.
d) the impact of such a 'fall' of a city once having a mythological status well beyond the region, notably with Algeria, France and the USA - in that order
e) can the 'rebels' actually administer the Tuareg region, including towns and without some of the extremism associated with AQIM?
f) an ECOWAS intervention leads to an effective partition, I doubt the coalition - even with external support - will seek combat in the north.
All from my faraway "armchair". Helped by this BBC analysis Is Mali's coup doomed?:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17573294
Tuarag rebels proclaim 'independence of Azawad'
Has the inevitable breakup of Africa's artificial states begun in earnest?
Quote:
"We solemnly proclaim the independence of Azawad as from today," said Mossa Ag Attaher, who added that the rebels would respect "the borders with other states."
Armed Islamists had stormed the Algerian consulate in northeastern Mali and abducted seven diplomats on Thursday amid fears Al Qaeda-linked fighters are turning the country into a rogue state and fuelling a humanitarian crisis.
As the Tuareg trumpeted the success of a decades-old struggle to "liberate" their homeland, their fundamentalist comrades-turned-rivals began imposing sharia law in parts of northern Mali.
The MNLA said as a result of their successful conquest of an area they call the Azawad, they were halting all military operations from midnight on Thursday.
Ag Attaher declared: "We completely accept the role and responsibility that behoves us to secure this territory. We have ended a very important fight, that of liberation ... now the biggest task commences."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...of-Azawad.html
Coup leaders to stand down as part of Ecowas deal
A BBC report that starts with:
Quote:
Coup leaders in Mali have agreed to stand down and allow a transition to civilian rule, as part of a deal struck with regional bloc Ecowas. In return, the bloc will lift trade and economic sanctions and grant amnesty to the ruling junta, mediators said.
Later I noted this and wondered:
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Ecowas is preparing a force of up to 3,000 soldiers which could be deployed to stop the rebel advance.
In a side bar comment:
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Regional defence chiefs of staff are drafting plans for a potential military intervention. But it would still take weeks and outside logistical help before it could be deployed.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17642276
France has said it will help with logistics and IIRC previous ECOWAS expeditions have had financial support from elsewhere.
The Black Flag Flies in Mali
The Black Flag Flies in Mali
Entry Excerpt:
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Read the full post and make any comments at the SWJ Blog.
This forum is a feed only and is closed to user comments.
Nigeria’s Boko Haram Militants Join Mali Rebellion
What on God's good earth, does this mean?
Quote:
Boko Haram militants have joined the armed rebellion in northern Mali, security officials said.
Tuaregs and radical Islamist groups have occupied several cities in the north of Mali following a two-month rebellion.
The armed militias made significant advances after the government was overthrown by a military junta.
Last week, Islamists stormed the Algerian embassy in Gao, taking seven Algerian diplomats as hostages. It is not clear whether they have now been freed.
Security sources said the group was led by at least 100 Boko Haram fighters.
"There are a good 100 Boko Haram fighters in Gao. They are Nigerians and from Niger," Abu Sidibe, a regional deputy, told AFP. "They're not hiding. Some are even able to speak in the local tongue, explaining that they are Boko Haram."
Boko Haram militants "were in a majority among those who attacked the Algerian consulate" in Gao, another Malian security official said.
Responsibility for the attack on the Algerian embassy and the kidnapping of diplomats was claimed in a statement issued by an Al-Qaida dissident group, the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (Mujao).
Mujao is said to have split from the main al-Qaida group in the region, Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, in order to focus on spreading jihad in West Africa.
Mali has been rocked by political instability after the government was overthrown by a military coup.
The junta said it was forced to act after the government was unable to stop the Tuareg-backed rebellion in the north.
Since taking charge, however, the junta has been unable to stop the Tuaregs, who have now been joined by other Islamist groups.
Coup leader Army Captain Amadou Sanogo met with the country's parliamentary speaker, Dioncounda Traoré, to discuss a transition back to constitutional rule.
Traoré is set to be sworn in as interim president to oversee a transitional period and to organise elections.
Read more: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/32...#ixzz1rdmM62Df
What on God's good earth, does this mean?
Since the original story is based on a 'security sources', one of them a Malian, I would use a large "pinch of salt" and the reputable analysis in Post 122 made no reference to a Nigerian Boko Harem presence. Given the very confusing situation in Northern Mali, specifically Timbucktu, alongside the clear interests of 'security sources' to link Boko Harem to events in Mali I think I'll wait for a lot more before making a decision.
Convincing others, in particular Algeria, France, Nigeria and USA that there is a linkage is the motive.
Reflections after a visit in the past
A Stratfor article 'Africa's Tuareg Dilemma' by Robert D. Kaplan, who visited Mali years ago which is a good background read and then reflects on what has happened:http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/afr...obert-d-kaplan
Quote:
The real fundamental drama will play out gradually, outside the strictures of media accounts. This drama will be about how, and whether, Africa's recently impressive economic growth rates can lead to the creation of larger middle classes. It is larger middle classes that lead, in turn, to more efficient and vigorous government ministries, and to more professional militaries, so that hinterlands might be brought under control and artificially drawn borders made more workable. The Saharan countries, in this regard, are a more extreme version of the larger African challenge, as the desert has created the largest dichotomy of populations within the continent.
Analyst says Somali pirates have new weapons from Libya
Unrelated. Talks about the proliferation of weapons from Libya. If Somali pirates have them, then they are most certainly in Mali/Nigeria.
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(Reuters) - Somali pirates have acquired sophisticated weaponry, including mines and shoulder-held missile launchers from Libya, and are likely to use them in bolder attacks on shipping, a senior maritime security analyst said on Thursday.
"We found that Libyan weapons are being sold in what is the world's biggest black market for illegal gun smugglers, and Somali pirates are among those buying from sellers in Sierra Leone, Liberia and other countries," said Judith van der Merwe, of the Algiers-based African Centre for the Study and Research on Terrorism.
"We believe our information is credible and know that some of the pirates have acquired ship mines, as well as Stinger and other shoulder-held missile launchers," Van der Merwe told Reuters on the sidelines of an Indian Ocean naval conference.
After Libya's ruler Muammar Gaddafi was killed by rebels in the north African state, weaponry from his well-stocked arsenals made its way onto the black market, she said.
The information was gathered from interviews with gun smugglers, pirates and other sources, said Van der Merwe.
Pirates operating from the Somali coast have raked in millions of dollars in ransoms from hijacking ships and a report in 2011 estimated that maritime piracy costs the global economy between $7 billion and $12 billion through higher shipping costs and ransom payments.
Warships from NATO, the European Union and other affected countries deployed in the Gulf of Aden have had only limited success in combating pirate attacks, mainly because of the huge expanse of sea that needs surveillance, some 2.5 million square miles.
"What we are seeing is a decrease in the number of successful attacks, but an increase in the ransom amounts paid out, and the fear is that better armed pirates could risk more or pose a greater challenge when facing capture," Van der Merwe said.
Pirates have attacked as far away as the Indian coast, about 1,000 nautical miles away, and are increasingly turning their attention southwards towards South Africa.
A former commander of naval Task Force 151, one of the multi-national forces in the Gulf of Aden, said pirates usually surrendered when faced with the massive firepower of naval vessels.
"At this stage we are seeing no evidence the pirates of Somalia are having any weapons beyond the AK47s and RPGs," Rear Admiral Harris Chan of the Singapore Navy told Reuters at the conference.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...83B0HO20120412
Ecowas sends troops to Mali
The BBC News headline and the situation is:
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At least 3,000 regional soldiers are ready to go to Mali to support the transitional government's fight against rebels which control the north. The BBC's John James at the meeting in Abidjan says no timescale was set for the deployment to Mali, because the leaders were waiting for the Malian government to draw up details of their collaboration. It is still unclear which regional countries will contribute to the Ecowas force, and even once ready, it will need financial and logistical outside help before it can be deployed.
Ok, change the headline to ECOWAS thinks about sending troops to Mali. No change two weeks later, from my previous comment.
Whose ECOWAS troops intervene?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
KingJaja
But where will these troops come from? I don't see them coming from Nigeria.
Looking at who is an ECOWAS member and Nigeria abstaining I cannot see anyone providing troops. How many of the members have a deployable military now and it suits their national interest to intervene on the ground?
Link to ECOWAS membership:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economi...African_States
I have ignored "interested parties" offering far more than logistic help, yes hiring ECOWAS troops.
One wonders if any Africans involved in this matter have pondered whether the odium piled upon Executive Outcomes was a mistake.
Centuries of tradition and respect up in smoke
I suppose it was only a matter of time, as the destruction of the Bamiyan sculptures showed in Afghanistan, but in Mali things move faster.
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Islamist fighters said to be linked to al-Qaeda have destroyed the tomb of a local Muslim saint in the Malian town of Timbuktu, officials and locals say.
The gunmen attacked the shrine and set it on fire, saying it was contrary to Islam, according to the official.
Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17973545
Nothing like "winning friends" or 'hearts & minds'.
Things not to the fore recently
Some background which I was not aware of:
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In 1991, more than two decades prior to similar pro-democracy uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, Malians engaged in a massive nonviolent resistance campaign that brought down the dictatorship of Mousa Traor. A broad mobilization of trade unionists, peasants, students, teachers, and others .... created a mass movement throughout the country. Despite the absence of Facebook or the Internet, virtually no international media coverage, and the massacre of hundreds of peaceful protesters, this popular civil insurrection succeeded not only in ousting a repressive and corrupt regime, but ushered in more than two decades of democratic rule.
Despite corruption, poverty, and a weak infrastructure, Mali was widely considered to be the most stable and democratic country in West Africa.
I'd not seen this in the coverage, my emphasis:
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Charging that the civilian government was not being tough enough against the rebels, US-trained Army Captain Amadou Sanogo and other officers staged a coup on March 22 and called for US intervention along the lines of Afghanistan and the war on terror. Sanogos training in the United States is just one small part of a decade of US training of armies in the Sahel, increasing the militarization of this impoverished region and the influence of armed forces relative to civilian leaders.
Link:http://www.opendemocracy.net/stephen...r-own-making-0
US on duty deaths in a crash in Mali
Nor have events in Mali been without loss for the USA, edited down and dated 20th April 2012 (thanks to a SWC reader):
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Three American military personnel and three civilians died early Friday in a single-car crash in Mali's capital, U.S. officials said... one of the three Americans was from U.S. Army Intelligence and Security Command, and the two others were assigned to U.S. Special Operations Command. The military personnel were in Mali as part of a U.S. special operations training mission that was suspended after last month's coup overthrew the country's democratically elected president.
Link:http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/04...in-mali-crash/
Has the World Forgotten Mali?
Seems like the World has forgotten Mali and is resigned to two states - Mali in the South and "Azawad" in the North.
The longer Azawad remains a de-facto state, the more difficult it would be to reverse the situation on the ground.
In any case, it is a sign of things to come.