Reportedly the result of Tuareg mercenaries coming home from Libya and I note a new group calling for independence:Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16643507Quote:
the newly formed National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (NLMA)
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Reportedly the result of Tuareg mercenaries coming home from Libya and I note a new group calling for independence:Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16643507Quote:
the newly formed National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (NLMA)
Stratfor have a free access article The Tuaregs: From African Nomads to Smugglers and Mercenaries. Nothing startling, but a good, short overview. Clearly Mali is one of the Sahel countries to be affected, so will Niger.
Link:http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/tua...nd-mercenaries
From the Wall Street Journal: Mali Troops Stage Coup
Apparently a reaction to ineffective government response to the Tuareg uprising in the north, and possibly a reaction to peace talks.
More info here.
Didn't the U.S. Africom have a training mission there a few years ago?
I pointed this out earlier - the severe limitations of an "AFRICOM" led approach to fighting terrorism.
A few salient points.
1. The Tauregs yearn for an independent homeland.
2. Many armed Tauregs are moving down south in the wake of Gaddafi's ouster.
3. This results in a better armed opposition against the the Malian military.
4. Malian troops (although AFRICOM trained) were not well paid or well compensated - this triggered a set of riots by the widows of Malian troops killed by the Tauregs.
5. The coup is a result of a set of very complex events.
6. AFRICOM will find it difficult to operate effectively here and the US stands to risk of inserting itself into the internal politics of a sovereign state if it sticks its neck in too much.
7. Al Qaeda loves to exploit these kind of situations.
Hey John !
Where to begin ? I'll start with a hopeful second to Slapout's desire to have the SWC 2012 quote of the year award:
Training a dictator's rogue military generally means (that training) will later be used against the very population it was intended to protect.
About 3 years ago the President of Mali was unable to abscond with funds for development and pledged a total struggle against AQIM (that, as you and I know got him the POTUS' blessings and OUR cash). He also declared, in the same sentence, that his troops were not equipped nor trained for the counter terrorism task at hand (that he picked and decided to perform).
Enter AFRICOM :rolleyes:
I think we are around 6 million in the hole now (of the 20 M granted for the Sahel). Even AID came up with millions to rewrite history and disseminate US views on radio stations (talk about PSYOPS - civilian style). :D
So, what went wrong - where'd we fail ?
1. The Malian army used their skills and equipment against their own people (go figure). In theory we were to reduce the terrorist threat. This is barely nothing new for the region and someone back in DC should be shot for being ignorant of a 50-year long historical catastrophe and waste of money.
2. Then there's the pathetic belief that AFRICOM is screwing around in a generally peaceful and stable country (despite its history and failed military interventions in other African countries).
3. Our miscalculating where that developmental aid actually goes when governed by military -- benefiting only the military and politicians in said country, while the local population continues to starve.
4. Our involvement could cause resentment (locals misinterpreting our intentions (get all their oil and skedaddle).
5. In conclusion, the US Military are not a humanitarian tool in the POTUS' kit bag. The AID agencies know far better how to abscond with funds and diddle about for centuries with no visible sign of progress. We should start by contacting our congress and senate and have them all committed for atrocities now and in the future :eek:
As best I recall a quote from a South African journalist sometime in the late 1970s or early 1980s, "There is nothing quite so frightening as an American politician is search of a quick fix to someone else's problem." I think "American" and "politician" restrict the applicability too much.
This seems like another good opportunity for us to let other people work out their differences on their own.
(As for the contribution any of our prior activities might have made to the current situation, 'when you find yourself in a hole, the first step in fixing it is to stop digging.')
It is a legitimate aim (just like the Kurds), but it will result in the splitting of a couple of nations (Mali, Burkina Faso etc).Quote:
...and why shouldn't they?
That is one of the problems of the political structure of the African continent - a lot of split ethnic groups. However France (who really matters here) wants none of that, so it continues.
Hey Jaja !
Well, if you wish to word it that way, yes, they are still training there.
In reality, elements of the US Military are training Congolese soldiers, not staff members from AFRICOM.
While I get where you are coming from (especially based on my post above), there are instances or training that does not necessarily adversely affect the local population. Such as humanitarian demining.
There are probably more good examples, but success stories from the DRC are few and far between :confused:
Because they are not a single homogenous group, but rather a series of affiliated tribes spread across several states. Even if they were to get an independent homeland, the lands that they traditionally inhabit are some of the least viable lands in the Sahel. They are heavily dependent on aid from the states that they inhabit and foreign (NGO) aid. Any new Tuareg state would just be another economic basket case that would require extensive aid just to survive, never mind grow.
Most of the Tuareg that I knew in Niger harbored no particular interest in an independent Tuareg homeland. They just wanted to be better integrated into the states in which they lived. I can certainly sympathize with that. The Tuareg have had it hard. They do not fit in well with either the black Africans in the south nor the Arabs to the north. Niger's previous president liked to use the fear of Tuareg insurrection as a kind of wag the dog ploy. If memory serves, Mali's president did some of that as well. For their part, the Tuareg have been associated with many things that have not necessarily endeared them to the general public in the states they inhabit, including smuggling and slavery. Those associations are, of course, exaggerated but they are not totally unjustified, but then there are not many ways to make a living where many of them live.
More from the front lines...
Quote:
Our correspondent says it is possible that the coup may falter, pointing out that the mutinous troops are poorly equipped, led by a mid-ranking soldier and they do not have the backing of all Malian forces.
The well-trained and organized Red Berets unit is loyal to the president and he is believed to be under their protection, our reporter says.
If those officers decide to push back, they could perhaps overturn the coup, he says.
Even if the coup falters, it will have an adverse impact on the Malian army. Coups led by senior officers tend to leave the command structure intact. Junior officers coups, on the other hand, tend to destroy the structure of the army.
If ATT quells this coup, he'll have to restructure the army.
All the better for the Tauregs/Al Qaeda.
A little of both.Quote:
From what (admittedly) little I know, the Tuareg don't seem to have a culture that would be receptive to Salafist teaching and practices. Which leads to this question: Is Al Qaeda using the Tuareg, or are the Tuareg using Al Qaeda?
Nigerian Christianity wasn't an American "word of faith" style thing thirty years ago, it is today. You couldn't get a Nigerian Muslim to do suicide bombing ten years ago, you can today.
Have you heard about Usman Dan Fodio? The Fulani weren't particularly known for piety in Northern Nigeria until he came around 200 years ago. (They aren't that well known for piety outside Nigeria - they are the "Jallows" and the "Diallos" )
Circumstances change, people change. After seeing the rapid pace of change in Africa over my short lifetime, I believe that anything is possible.
The BBC have a reporter in Mali:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17474946
A BBC analyst adds some context in 'Gaddafi's influence in Mali's coup':http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17481114
Its funny isn't it. We have African leaders bleating over the problems caused through colonial imposed boundaries... but are then prepared to maintain them through war if necessary.
We have had post colonial boundaries changed for Eritrea and South Sudan... while there should have been more than 100 adjustments by now.
Failing to recognise the aspirations of minorities is a recipe for disaster (especially if there is a mischievous neighbour willing to sow the seeds of discontent, supply weapons and sanctuary).
If there is oil/possibility of oil within those boundaries then they are motivated to keep the boundaries. That's Nigeria's problem. As soon as the oil runs dry, everyone is out.Quote:
Its funny isn't it. We have African leaders bleating over the problems caused through colonial imposed boundaries... but are then prepared to maintain them through war if necessary.
The legacy of colonial boundaries has created all manner of mess, but going out and trying to preemptively adjust them would create even more mess... and who would do it?
There have been adjustments, and there will continue to be, as the people involved force them to happen. They will continue to be very messy, and they will likely go on a long time.
And the USA is a single homogenous group? Afghanistan (a country which the US seems to want to keep together at all costs) comprises a homogenous group?
In my Southern African travels I have noted the one 'thing' that really gets Africans angry is the smart solutions for Africa's problems thought up by so-called 'smart' people in the US with little or no experience or understanding of Africa.
If the Tuareg peoples (note the plural) consolidated into single 'homeland' would not be able to form a viable state (in your opinion) why would it be acceptable for their 'area' to be carved up among a handful of surrounding states where the Tuaregs would be 'looked after' like a parasitic minority by the (certainly not affluent) racially/ethnically/religiously (tick as applicable) different majority?
I don't want to question your sources, or your reading of the local situation as I don't know what exposure you had in Mali... I have none. I would suggest that as a general comment the 'research' carried out by foreigners before forming an opinion is 99% too limited and as such leads to incorrect conclusions being drawn.
(On this point I remember being told by a US female USAID worker that tribalism no longer existed in Mozambique. I asked her how she had arrived at that decision and she replied that her local driver (who she was screwing) had told her. For those who don't know there is a tendency among educated and semi-educated Africans to deny the existence of tribalism as this would somehow confirm the backward status of Africa.)
There isn't such a thing as a "homogeneous" ethnic group anywhere in Africa. (I should know, I belong to one).
As to the boundaries, they will be adjusted and that will happen - watch what will happen to Africa when the French finally pull out.
They (some of us) also deny the fact that cannibalism exists. At least until they see a body face down in a ditch with no meat on the calves :D
The favorite sources for intel in Kinshasa were the cooks. I could barely wait for the Monday briefings having just drove around the city with Tom to make sure we actually saw what we would report on. Strange concept, knowing what you are talking about :eek:
My point was simply that these groups do not necessarily want the same things. Statements about what the Tuareg want must be viewed with some suspicion since there is a very real possibility that that they do not all want these things. Also the fact that they are so spread out begs the question of whose homeland do they want? In other words, do the Malian Tuareg want the homeland to be in what is now northern Mali? What about the Nigerien Tuareg? Are the Tuareg in others areas going to be willing to relocate to this new homeland?
Read my post again. I did not advocate any "fixes." I was, in fact, advocating against fixes imposed by foreign governments i.e. forcing existing states to cede sovereign land for the creation of a Tuareg homeland.
My comment about the viability of the lands was regarding the terrain, weather and lack of resources. I do not think that I will get a lot of argument that the Sahel is one of the harshest places to live in the world. If they were to create a new state there how would that state feed its people, never mind establish a viable economy? I have no idea what the last part of your statement was about.
This looks like total mayhem. It seems as if Mali has been set back a few years.
http://af.reuters.com/article/topNew...120323?sp=trueQuote:
BAMAKO (Reuters) - Bread and fuel ran low in Mali's capital Bamako on Friday as mutineering soldiers looted petrol stations and shops and hijacked cars, residents said, while coup leaders sought to consolidate their grip on power.
The mutinous soldiers, angered by what they saw as President Amadou Toumani Toure's poor handling of a northern rebellion, roamed the streets of the capital after over-running the presidential palace and taking control of state television.
But Tuareg rebels in northern Mali, aiming to capitalise on the confusion in the distant capital, pushed south to occupy positions abandoned by government forces, sources said.
Captain Amadou Sanogo, the head of a body set up by the mutineers, suggested on Thursday that soldiers were trying to arrest Toure.
The president's whereabouts were unknown, though unconfirmed reports said he was being protected by loyalist troops in the city.
Despite Sanogo's calls to the soldiers to stop pillaging and respect private property, residents said looting was continuing and had caused shortages while fuel prices have doubled to over 1,300 CFA francs a litre in about 24 hours.
"People are afraid because of the soldiers. Often (they take) what is in the car or they make you get out and take the car or sometimes the soldiers themselves just break into shops," said Bamako resident Adama Quindo.
Around the city, most shops, petrol stations and businesses were closed while some residents ventured out in search of bread and petrol.
AQIM is extending its reach throughout West Africa. Both BH and AQIM have everything to gain from this linkage. The Nigerian people have a lot to loose by it.
AQIM is linked with the Malian rebels recently returned from fighting in Lybia. They were so well armed that the Malian military was unable to make any headway against them. The military says they were not properly resourced by the Toure's government in Bamako so they stood little chance of defeating the separatist rebels. That, at least in their statements, is the reason for the coup in Mali.
I realize it is difficult to make comparisons between any two situations in the world, yet I cannot help but wonder if the Nigerian military and police feel under resourced by Goodluck Jonathan? How angry are they at being a frequent target of BH, yet seeming impotent to put BH to flight? Surely some have paid attention to what has happened in Mali.
The Nigerian president has far too much support in the south for any security forces to take action against him. However, will the time come when the police say, enough is enough, we cannot carry on with such a lack of resources and simply walk away or go on strike.
You are exactly right. Ethiopia and Sudan have already been divided. Somalia is not too far from it right now. It is very possible that your own Nigeria will see the same in the next few years.
The last 50 years has seen African nations gain independence, the next 50 will see a redrawing of the map - a map that will reflect more the real nations, kingdoms and ethnic groups of the continent.
And, IMHO, it has nothing to do with whining about a colonial legacy, but more about the true makeup of Africa.
Chowing commented:The rebels in most reports I have read were mercenaries for Gadafy and fought against a coalition that included jihadists. Returning home before the end, along with heavy weapons - which the Malian army had nothing to compare. Film footage tonight showed "technicals" and lorry-mounted rocket launchers.Quote:
AQIM is linked with the Malian rebels recently returned from fighting in Lybia.
So how do these men now become linked to AQIM?
Sadly, now set back several decades. This sounds like just about every upheaval I've had the pleasure of witnessing.
It's one thing to say you're doing it for your people and country...
And, it's entirely another to perform this, with the general consent and participation of the population...Quote:
The mutinous soldiers, angered by what they saw as President Amadou Toumani Toure's poor handling of a northern rebellion, roamed the streets of the capital after over-running the presidential palace and taking control of state television.
This would be more to be concerned about and just where it's heading after MaliQuote:
"People are afraid because of the soldiers. Often (they take) what is in the car or they make you get out and take the car or sometimes the soldiers themselves just break into shops," said Bamako resident Adama Quindo.
Quote:
flooded with men and weapons after Libya's civil war
Exactly... meaning it will happen gradually, messily, and as required, usually when an intractable civil war forces it. It won't be preemptive: countries aren't going to rearrange their borders or divide themselves to prevent violence, they do it when violence reaches a level that makes it impossible to do anything else.
Even where there's broad agreement that colonial-era borders are a disastrous legacy, there are all kinds of wildly different ideas of what adjustments are needed, usually driven more by perceived self-interest than by a desire to prevent violence. One more thing to fight over.
In Nigeria's case it is not a question of whether, but when and how.Quote:
You are exactly right. Ethiopia and Sudan have already been divided. Somalia is not too far from it right now. It is very possible that your own Nigeria will see the same in the next few years.
The last 50 years has seen African nations gain independence, the next 50 will see a redrawing of the map - a map that will reflect more the real nations, kingdoms and ethnic groups of the continent.
And, IMHO, it has nothing to do with whining about a colonial legacy, but more about the true makeup of Africa.
Look at this map:
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/...ap-custom1.jpg
On overlay of ethno-linguistic groups and political boundaries (the definitions here are pretty broad).
"Linked to AQIM" is a phrase that needs to be approached with a lot of wariness and a lot of skepticism. Of course there are all kinds of "links" between and among numerous groups, but governments and rival groups will inevitably exaggerate and distort links to AQIM in an effort to get the US to start shelling out. Nobody's forgotten the days when shouting "communists" opened the US treasury, and people will be trying to see if the word "terrorist" has the same magical effect.
Very, very broad.
Take the case of 'little' Malawi for instance. (from here)
There remains significant ethnic 'awareness' in Malawi which is reflected in voting patterns to this day.Quote:
Malawi's population is made up of the Chewa, Nyanja, Tumbuka, Yao, Lomwe, Sena, Tonga, Ngoni and Ngonde native ethnic groups, as well as populations of Asians and Europeans. Major languages include Chichewa, an official language spoken by over 57% of the population, Chinyanja (12.8%), Chiyao (10.1%) and Chitumbuka (9.5%).
Other native languages are Malawian Lomwe, spoken by around 250,000 in the southeast of the country; Kokola, spoken by around 200,000 people also in the southeast; Lambya, spoken by around 45,000 in the northwestern tip; Ndali, spoken by around 70,000; Nyakyusa-Ngonde, spoken by around 300,000 in northern Malawi; Malawian Sena, spoken by around 270,000 in southern Malawi; and Tonga, spoken by around 170,000 in the north.
The smaller groups within Malawi are often found in larger number just across the border. Inside the country their areas are often fairly accurately demarcated by 'district' boundaries.
If there was the will...
Yes probably.
The key issue here is that they will have logistics and supply problems for the weapons/equipment/vehicles they brought back from Libya.
A good field commander would tempt them to move around and fire off as much ammunition as possible until they run short or the vehicles break. (Their accuracy is not likely to be good, but the big bangs of HE are likely to scare the hell out of the rag-tag Malian army)
Then with a level playing field they close in for the kill...
I don't want to get into a back and forth with you over this but I need to comment.
You need to accept that comment like "Statements about what the Tuareg want must be viewed with some suspicion" must surely also apply to what you were told and what you believe, yes?
Your 'fix' is not to do anything... so the war will continue. Some fix that is.
Like indigenous people in other extreme climatic areas maybe they just want to continue with their traditional way of life. Maybe they don't want a modern state with malls, Walmart, MacDonald's and Starbucks. No matter how backward we may think their lifestyle is maybe they like it just like that ... and are prepared to fight for it.
What do you think?
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/...ined_in_the_usQuote:
An interesting nugget from the AP's latest dispatch from Bamako:
A diplomat who requested anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the press said that [Capt. Amadou Haya] Sanogo, the coup leader, was among the elite tier of soldiers selected by the U.S. Embassy to receive military counterterrorism training in America. Sanogo, the official said, traveled "several times" to America for the special training.
That means that he had to pass a background check indicating that he was not complicit in any human rights crimes. The official requested not to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media.
As blogger Laura Seay quips, "your tax dollars at work."
The U.S. hasn't yet made a decision on whether to cut off military assistance to Mali following the coup. According to State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland, annual U.S. assistance to Mali is around $137 million, about half of which is humanitarian aid. France suspended its military cooperation with Mali yesterday.
See also: Elizabeth Dickinson's post from 2010 on why coups always seem to be led by captains or colonels not generals.
About Dickinson - We've never had a successful junior officer coup in Nigeria.
That is exactly what the reports are saying. They are fighting for the same cause in the northern regions. That is the linkage, not of ideology or even goal. They are taking advantage the destabilization that was in the region as they began to come out of Libya.
This example Chowing seems to fit the 'Accidental Guerilla' thesis of David Kilcullen, a local group with a local agenda being labelled as linked to AQ. Yet again an illustration that knowledge of what is happening in the remote parts of Africa and other places, like Mali is at a premium.
Hey Chowing,
Do you have links to those reports ?
You should give Dr. Kilcullen's Accidental Guerrilla a read... Really good stuff !
I think the info leak should be hung for treason. Some of us (our taxes) wasted a ton of money for him/her to pine away abroad and dream up ways to leak info to the press.
On to the meat of the matter...
I've been sending indigenous military to US schools since 1985 and most come back with a desire to do something for their country (a noble cause). Most however do not end up doing anything with their education and the host country government almost always assigns these folks to something pathetically miniscule.
Exposing a foreigner to life in the US is part of the program - sell America. Some don't care at all for life in the US (several Estonians have told me so), but, I don't recall one African NCO or Officer not liking his/her experience there.
I am unaware of any study done to conclude that these soldiers came back from US training and became coup leaders. And, even if there was statistical evidence, what would we then conclude ? That the USA trained future coup leaders vs sending them to the schools originally intended ? Some of us have been watching too many Hollywood movies :D
Not sure if there's anecdotal evidence to support Elizabeth's theory. Mobutu was little more than a 6th grade educated sergeant and look what he accomplished :rolleyes:
Cannibals in the DRC?
In Zimbabwe you need to watch out for the 'sperm hunters' (YCMTSU)
Can anyone link me to some more current info on USG security capacity building efforts in Mali?
In 2010, according to DSCA they received a paltry 200k in FMF monies. But, the Trans Saharan Counter Terrorism Initiative is funded under a different line by Congress. Am I correct? Is the TSCTI primarily implemented by AFRICOM? From what I can ascertain, AID and DoS also have a role, but I'm concerned more with the CT training part of it.
Essentially what I'm trying to answer is: How much does the USG have invested in counter-AQIM efforts in Mali and how will these efforts be set back by the recent coup?
I know the USG tends to work with whomever is convenient, but I doubt relations with the ruling junior officers will continue as normal.
I'd love a link with some more solid information on training, but please do weigh in any way you see fit.
Hey Ben, Welcome aboard !
As you probably already know, other than DOS and USAID, there is no one stop shopping for the info you seek. DSCA doesn't actually open their data up to the world, but their data by country is contained in the overall picture from State. We still have an SF team there now and from what I can tell they have ceased training and ops.
200K in FMF may sound paltry, but Mali is getting between 140 and 170 million a year total (based on DOS and AID info, covering everything from agriculture development to military training for CT). Then there's a 5-year 460 million package from MCC to boot. All this cash may be funded under different lines, but it's still all State's money regardless of which pot you get it from.
Other than humanitarian aid, all the other money and training are on hold.
That actually is no longer the case and I doubt the USG will be communicating with coup plotters regarding FMF or any other assistance.
Regards, Stan
JMA,
Far worse things have happened to me in Africa !
But, to be subdued and forced to have sex... That has yet to happen :D
Quote:
Susan Dhliwayo claims she pulled her car over recently to pick up a group of male hitchhikers and they refused to get in, because they feared they were going to be raped.
"Now, men fear women. They said: 'we can't go with you because we don't trust you'," 19-year-old Miss Dhliwayo recounted.
Local media have reported victims of the highway prowlers being drugged, subdued at gun or knife point – even with a live snake in one case – given a sexual stimulant and forced into repeated sex before being dumped on the roadside.
Stan, thanks for the swift and thorough response!
Now that the USG can do little more than sit on the sidelines and hope the forthcoming election happens on time (ha), I wonder how much capacity has been built for their two-brigade military to handle AQIM and the Tuareg insurgency? According to the WSJ the Tuaregs are about to roll unopposed into Timbuktu. Even though the Tuareg and AQIM aren't necessarily one in the same, I smell the potential for a safe(r) haven to arise out of this.
U.S. weighs $137M in aid to Mali after coup
Canada halts aid to Mali after military coupQuote:
WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is weighing the future of military aid to Mali after soldiers in the African country ousted their president and declared a coup.
State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said no decision has been made. She said officials would meet Thursday to talk about the $137 million in annual U.S. counterterrorism and other assistance.
Army mutineers said they overthrew the government because of its mishandling of an ethnic insurgency in northern Mali.
Nuland wouldn’t call it a coup. She expressed hope the “military action” could quickly be reversed so that Mali returns to democratic governance.
The U.S. has long cited Mali as an African example of a thriving democracy.
The White House also condemned the violence in Mali and voiced support for Mali’s president, Amadou Toumani Toure.
Quote:
In a sharp reaction to the military takeover and suspension of the constitution, Ottawa is blasting “illegitimate rule” in a country where Canada has been a major donor, sending $109-million in aid last year. Mali is one of Canada’s biggest aid recipients, with much of the money passing directly through government coffers in Bamako.