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One would hope that political and military planners - not just Americans - have considered this as a possibility.

My recollection is that the Cold War era US-USSR de-confliction agreements...

Hat tip to WoTR:http://warontherocks.com/2016/02/is-the-taiwan-puzzle-in-the-south-china-sea-solvable/

With the recent reporting on PRC building up some islands in The Spratley's we missed what Taiwan (RoC) was doing:...

Via Reuters:


More on this maritime SAR exercise:http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/23/us-southchinasea-philippines-idUSKBN0P30H120150623?

AdamG,

Given the reported closeness between China and Russia of late, often with a stress on commerce and trade, does Vietnam really have a claim upon Russian support? Yes, Russia is in the...

Hat tip to Australia's Lowy Institute for the pointer to this publication, described as:
Link to report:http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/234936.pdf

Link to Lowy Institute's short...

I overlooked posting this National Interest article 'Did China Blink in the South China Sea' published on the 27th July...

The title comes from the Chief of the People's Liberation Army General Staff, General Fang Fenghui, in a press conference after a US-PRC military exchange:

Link to source, Lowy Institute, within...

A number of nations over time have expressed an interest in having nuclear submarines (SSN), I was not aware Australia had such an interest. The RAN has a big problem already with manning its...

A strange twist to Chinese diplomacy, initially for the Paracel Islands, as the BBC reports:

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-22056661

An astute move, even more worrying if such...

Dayuhan and others raise the issue of Sino-Russian relations, which we have not given serious thought to:

Why would the Russians side with Vietnam? Surely there is far more to gain with PRC, apart...

Ray,

Even I from afar know that this exercise is a bi-annual event, so hardly a surprise to China and others. Those involved are:

China has been an observer in the past.
...

Today Admiral Nirmal Kumar Verma, Chairman, Chiefs of Staff Committee & Chief of Naval Staff, spoke at IISS in London, on 'Metamorphosis of Matters Maritime: An Indian Perspective'.
...

Hat tip to Lowy Institute for the pointer to an interactive map of incidents and more:http://www.cnas.org/flashpoints

Included is a January 2012 paper on the Chinese...

Ray,

The clues to the deployment are in the linked article:

This is a typical naval cruise, "waving the flag" and telling the audience that India has arrived. I assume this is the first such...

The dispute summed up in eighty seconds:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaNVKC-9zlw

Reading the last few posts and knowing a tiny bit of history around US military use of bases in the Phillipines and Japan made me wonder. Have we considered here the effect of impact of military sex...

Carl's response to my post:

A few months ago here in the UK there was a story that Russian aircraft, IIRC 'Bears' again, had entered UK territorial airspace, along with lurid headlines, but on...

Ray rightly asks:

It is not a matter of backing down, what should not be overlooked and one hopes that PACOM and other US activity is closely checked to prevent incidents that could provoke China,...

Dayuhan cited in part and with my emphasis:

From:http://vfacom.ph/

Given my recollection that Sino-Vietnamese relations are poor and regional history the participation of Vietnam is significant...

JMA posted:

I accept international politics is far from predictable, but if anything the USA since 1945 has been quite an unpredictable 'policeman'. As a certain Mr Saddam Hussain discovered after...

There has been quite a lot of comment here and analysis elsewhere, albeit some months ago, regarding the use of non-naval ships in incidents in this maritime area. IIRC IISS published an Adelphi...

A viewpoint from IISS:http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-17-2011/august/behind-recent-gunboat-diplomacy-in-the-south-china-sea/

Which ends with:

There is...

Hat tip to the Australian "think tank" the Lowry Institute that Aileen Baviera, at a Singapore "think tank" is the expert to follow on developments in the South China Sea.

Link to her latest short...

Carl,

Taken from your long post:

I prefer to use capability + intention to make an assessment.

In the case of the PRC, let alone the South China disputes, for a long time the PRC has had the...