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Search: Posts Made By: Dayuhan
Forum: Europe 8 Hours Ago
Replies: 1,956
Views: 97,512
Posted By Dayuhan
The simple answer to "why now" is that Russia...

The simple answer to "why now" is that Russia isn't choosing their own time. Certainly Russia is acting as a spoiler in both Syria and the Ukraine, but in both cases the Russian involvement is...
Forum: Europe 1 Day Ago
Replies: 1,956
Views: 97,512
Posted By Dayuhan
I don't think the US is destabilizing Russia....

I don't think the US is destabilizing Russia. Putin has to some extent destabilized his own regime by choosing policies that exacerbate the conflict in interests between and among his key...
Forum: Europe 1 Day Ago
Replies: 1,956
Views: 97,512
Posted By Dayuhan
Domestic politics are always a balancing act, and...

Domestic politics are always a balancing act, and the balance points can shift very quickly. Multiple pillars don't always have identical weightings, and there are sub groups within each of these...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 2 Days Ago
Replies: 592
Views: 66,911
Posted By Dayuhan
Simple answer: no. There is a surplus, but it's...

Simple answer: no. There is a surplus, but it's not that large, and the US has no gas export facilities. There are several under construction but their output is already committed to Asian buyers...
Forum: Europe 2 Days Ago
Replies: 1,956
Views: 97,512
Posted By Dayuhan
The sanctions themselves are a long term threat,...

The sanctions themselves are a long term threat, but the elite's fear of sanctions is immediate. The motivator in this case is not so much what the existing sanctions have already done as what the...
Forum: Europe 2 Days Ago
Replies: 1,956
Views: 97,512
Posted By Dayuhan
Interesting dichotomy between this: ...

Interesting dichotomy between this:



and this:



Putin can't afford to lose in the Eastern Ukraine... but can he afford to sink his own economy and provoke the wrath of the oligarchs and...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 2 Days Ago
Replies: 592
Views: 66,911
Posted By Dayuhan
Point to consider...

Putin can't cut the gas off. He needs the money. At this point Putin is just as concerned with overdependence on Europe as a buyer as Europe is with overdependence on Russia as a seller.

Russia...
Forum: Europe 4 Days Ago
Replies: 1,956
Views: 97,512
Posted By Dayuhan
That's actually amusing, coming from someone who...

That's actually amusing, coming from someone who habitually writes 4-5 sequential posts on the same topic. I'd suggest composing your thoughts and writing a single post or reply, not a long string of...
Forum: Europe 4 Days Ago
Replies: 1,956
Views: 97,512
Posted By Dayuhan
Didn't you just post this piece suggesting that...

Didn't you just post this piece suggesting that in some quarters at least there's a perception that Putin's popularity is sliding?



Putin is increasingly between a rock and a hard place:...
Forum: Europe 5 Days Ago
Replies: 1,956
Views: 97,512
Posted By Dayuhan
Yes, we all know it's deep, it's wide, it's...

Yes, we all know it's deep, it's wide, it's extensive in all dimensions. This is completely irrelevant to the core questions: is it effective? Is it actually selling the product? To answer that you...
Forum: Europe 6 Days Ago
Replies: 1,956
Views: 97,512
Posted By Dayuhan
Yes, it is extremely ridiculous, and also very...

Yes, it is extremely ridiculous, and also very obviously ridiculous. It's a good example of the Russian ineptness at handling information... who reads Interfax material anyway, and how many people...
Forum: Europe 6 Days Ago
Replies: 1,956
Views: 97,512
Posted By Dayuhan
Is there any independent confirmation of this?

Is there any independent confirmation of this?
Forum: Europe 1 Week Ago
Replies: 1,956
Views: 97,512
Posted By Dayuhan
Driven by interests, concerned with threats......

Driven by interests, concerned with threats... just like every other country's foreign policy. Oil isn't the only interest, but it's certainly a major one. Nuclear war isn't the only threat, but it's...
Forum: Europe 1 Week Ago
Replies: 1,956
Views: 97,512
Posted By Dayuhan
Did any thinking person ever doubt that Kuwait...

Did any thinking person ever doubt that Kuwait would be liberated?

Saddam didn't have nukes; Putin does. Crimea doesn't have oil, Kuwait does. Those factors may have some slight impact on the...
Forum: Middle East 1 Week Ago
Replies: 53
Views: 1,957
Posted By Dayuhan
If the Palestinians had come up with a Gandhi...

If the Palestinians had come up with a Gandhi instead of an Arafat, they'd have had most of what they wanted a long time ago. It's probably true that they are playing to Muslim audiences rather than...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 1 Week Ago
Replies: 23
Views: 7,393
Posted By Dayuhan
Back when I was spending a lot of time in that...

Back when I was spending a lot of time in that region I used to often not the peculiar symbiosis between the determined socialism of Kerala and the capitalist bastion of Dubai. Kerala's much-praised...
Forum: Training & Education 1 Week Ago
Replies: 10
Views: 4,224
Posted By Dayuhan
Looking back at the originally cited article,...

Looking back at the originally cited article, this part of the hypothetical scenario stands out:



Granting that the scenario is set in 2015, but at this point the prediction above couldn't be...
Forum: Social Sciences, Moral, and Religious 1 Week Ago
Replies: 60
Views: 2,300
Posted By Dayuhan
I'm not sure there is a viable "central...

I'm not sure there is a viable "central government" at this stage. There's a Shi'a government that claims to be a central government, but despite very prodigious foreign assistance it cannot control...
Forum: Social Sciences, Moral, and Religious 1 Week Ago
Replies: 60
Views: 2,300
Posted By Dayuhan
I don't think anyone is suggesting that "we"...

I don't think anyone is suggesting that "we" (however "we" might be constructed) should divide Iraq. It's not a question of Iraq being divided by some outside party or parties, more a matter of...
Forum: Middle East 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 623
Views: 17,463
Posted By Dayuhan
I expect the Kurds will go their own way and take...

I expect the Kurds will go their own way and take the northern fields with them. The larger reserves in the south remain firmly in Shi'a territory and don't appear to be going anywhere. If Iraq...
Forum: Europe 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 1,956
Views: 97,512
Posted By Dayuhan
That will seem a pretty hollow win if the rest of...

That will seem a pretty hollow win if the rest of the Ukraine ends up under a pro-western government.



How is that understandable? If he sees himself faced by weakness and gutlessness, wouldn't...
Forum: Europe 3 Weeks Ago
Replies: 1,956
Views: 97,512
Posted By Dayuhan
What exactly were those steps, and where have...

What exactly were those steps, and where have they gotten him?

What I see is that some people here who are personally invested in the idea of an ascendent Russia and the West in retreat are very...
Forum: Middle East 3 Weeks Ago
Replies: 623
Views: 17,463
Posted By Dayuhan
Easier than what? None of us here are in a...

Easier than what? None of us here are in a position to do anything about anything. Ideas get tossed out and picked apart. That's discussion. Are ideas supposed to be sacrosanct and immune to...
Forum: Europe 3 Weeks Ago
Replies: 1,956
Views: 97,512
Posted By Dayuhan
Also interesting... ...

Also interesting...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/09/putin-ukraine-u-turn-explained
Forum: Europe 3 Weeks Ago
Replies: 1,956
Views: 97,512
Posted By Dayuhan
Nobody here knows what Putin "really wants". We...

Nobody here knows what Putin "really wants". We only know what he does: any effort to deduce motivation or desire is speculative.

What we know is that Putin has had troops positioned to intervene...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 200

 
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