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  1. Replies
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    M.L., I was not referring to an ethnocentric...

    M.L.,

    I was not referring to an ethnocentric view of rationalism, but instead was talking to how we use heuristics that are fraught with systemic biases that result in irrational choices (e.g.,...
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    M.L. R^2 measures the amount of variance in...

    M.L.

    R^2 measures the amount of variance in the observational data described by the model. Thus, it describes a correlative relationship in past data.

    If your model captures a causal...
  3. Thread: ILE-CC Curriculum

    by Shek
    Replies
    21
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    92,706

    Being a SG30A FBVA ILE alumnus, I'll offer my two...

    Being a SG30A FBVA ILE alumnus, I'll offer my two cents.

    1. My experience from a year ago was that there was plenty of peer learning in SG30A, with the vast majority of the faculty on 30A doing...
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    Flagg, The beat cop vs. squad car is a great...

    Flagg,

    The beat cop vs. squad car is a great analogy. Perception is reality, and this classic piece by James Q Wilson about broken windows I think cuts to the heart of what you're after.
    ...
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    Didn't work so well in Iraq. In warfare, it is...

    Didn't work so well in Iraq. In warfare, it is truly better to have than to want and not have. The anchoring bias also comes into play as well.

    In Iraq, the number of baseline troops become...
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    These are red herrings. Why did the US not use...

    These are red herrings. Why did the US not use COIN lessons it had experienced from its history in 2003-4/5? A valid question, but it doesn't negate the fact that there were lessons to be gathered...
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    Your comparison is a bit fallacious IMO. Grant...

    Your comparison is a bit fallacious IMO. Grant had to fight an offensive war completely on enemy territory (and then leave forces behind to administer the occupation) to succeed, and had to do so...
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    Infiltration tactics 1. Upton's successful...

    Infiltration tactics

    1. Upton's successful but unexploited assault at the Mule Shoe.

    2. Burnside's failed attempt at the Crater (the decision to remove the assigned USCT unit that had...
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    General John "They couldn't hit an elephant at...

    General John "They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance" Sedgwick would grudgingly agree with you.
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    Oops, need to change the location. Gravitation...

    Oops, need to change the location. Gravitation pull has pulled me closer to the Beltway :eek:
  11. Replies
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    A few more comments :) 1. "Immediately" in...

    A few more comments :)

    1. "Immediately" in the context of national decisions takes a long time. It's like trying to turn a zodiac (tactical) vs. a supertanker (strategy). Furthermore, to be...
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    Abu S, A few points/questions: 1. If the...

    Abu S,

    A few points/questions:

    1. If the President made a decision two weeks ago to adopt a troop increase, when would the first brigade be available to deploy? Would it be time now? Would...
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    http://lmgtfy.com/?q=armored+vehicle+weights

    http://lmgtfy.com/?q=armored+vehicle+weights
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    http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/news/story?id=441632...

    http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/news/story?id=4416326
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    While only a brief snapshot, having worked...

    While only a brief snapshot, having worked alongside both 101ABN and 4ID at the end of OIF I, I'd say that the descriptions forwarded by Ricks in Fiasco match up with what I experienced and reflect...
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    Neil, A lot of great questions, especially the...

    Neil,

    A lot of great questions, especially the line of questioning that hits at the change in international norms. One point - regression analysis is aggregated analysis, and so it can't answer...
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    Indentured servitude?

    Indentured servitude?
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    Neil, This doesn't answer the mail directly,...

    Neil,

    This doesn't answer the mail directly, but it's a list I came up with for the cadets I taught as an intro into professional reading.
    ...
  19. Thread: Draft FM 5-0?

    by Shek
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    Thanks Neil and Klug. I've got a ballpark...

    Thanks Neil and Klug. I've got a ballpark timeline now, which is sufficient for my purposes.

    Best,
    Shek
  20. Thread: Draft FM 5-0?

    by Shek
    Replies
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    25,473

    Sully, Any updates on the publishing timeline? ...

    Sully,
    Any updates on the publishing timeline? Thanks.
  21. Thread: Officer Retention

    by Shek
    Replies
    360
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    421,819

    I can think of plenty examples that make sense on...

    I can think of plenty examples that make sense on the eaches, and it's simply a matter of timing. I'm coming off of five years between grad school and teaching at West Point that were programmed in...
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    Schmedlap, I just finished reading it. Not a...

    Schmedlap,

    I just finished reading it. Not a bad read and he does have a compelling personal story, although I don't think his experience as a LT is atypical (which isn't meant as a criticism,...
  23. Ken, I think that Schmedlap hit the nail on...

    Ken,

    I think that Schmedlap hit the nail on the head with his comments about the reality of the Army experience for many, and those who were excited about the Army are often turned off. In terms...
  24. Schmedlap, A decent number of cadets at USMA...

    Schmedlap,

    A decent number of cadets at USMA right now turned down an opportunity to go to an Ivy League school, and I don't believe money was a factor in their decision to come to USMA. ...
  25. Once again I think you're misapplying what I...

    Once again I think you're misapplying what I said. There's certainly plenty of talented, intelligent, and intellectual OCS officers out there - some of them are even my friends ;)

    I was...
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