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Search: Posts Made By: Cliff
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 04-21-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
I'll bite...

It generally achieved our strategic objectives (Saddam contained/not slaughtering Kurds, helped end genocide in FRY (once we chose to actually use airpower), Serbs withdrew from Kosovo)... without...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 04-20-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
I'll take a stab at this one...

World War II was most definitely a threat to our survival. In the short term I agree that Germany and Japan could not threaten the US directly. In the long term, had the UK and Russia been knocked...
Forum: Asia-Pacific 04-20-2011
Replies: 739
Views: 98,126
Posted By Cliff
Great find...

davidbfpo-

Great find! The discussion of China's portrayal of their power projection capability is very interesting, as is the portion about the People's Armed Police taking primary...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 04-13-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
I think Warden would agree with you B.O., and...

I think Warden would agree with you B.O., and point out that maybe we could have bombed some targets in NVN (ala 1972) instead of Cambodia... Warden is not saying that warfare is bloodless now. He...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 04-13-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
Good point Ken...

Aww, shucks... I didn't know you cared, Ken! ;)



These are problems? Just kidding. I agree about the checklists. I also agree about the physics. Disagree about the people... at least where...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 04-13-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
My point is different...

Cole,

I'm not arguing that we need significantly higher investments in airpower... only pointing out that we have just barely enough, and can't afford to lose anymore.



Again, this would put...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 03-30-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
I'm not a Wardenista...

I've been a bit busy and am behind the power curve as usual.

Before I start, I want to say that I would not classify myself as a "Wardenista" in the sense that I don't think that the 5 rings model...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 03-30-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
I still disagree...

So we should only organize/train/equip for the current fight?



Not arguing with the budget comparison. Nevertheless, China's budget goes a lot farther... because their weapons are being...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 03-22-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
You assume UBL actually cares what the people...

You assume UBL actually cares what the people think. I would argue that the actions of AQI are a good example of AQ being perfectly willing to break some eggs making their caliphate omlette.


...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 03-22-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
USAF is not huge...

Let's clarify... we do not have a huge USAF. The USN (227) and Army (236) are both buying more aircraft in FY12 than the USAF is (114)... we have a small USAF that is getting smaller.
...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 03-22-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
I disagree that you have to have a huge ground...

I disagree that you have to have a huge ground force. Ground observers help, but the information you are referring to shouldn't be beyond the capabilities of the CIA, DIA, State, etc.



What...
Forum: Middle East 03-17-2011
Replies: 976
Views: 75,670
Posted By Cliff
UNSC Vote

The UNSC just approved the NFZ resolution...

could be too late for the Libyans...

V/R,

Cliff
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 03-12-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
Can't keep up with you, pvebber!

Sorry I am lagging this fight- not enough time to really keep up!



I think you have to have ways of defining the confidence you have in your understanding/information, combined with solid...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 03-11-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
So we should throw up our hands and give up? ...

So we should throw up our hands and give up? What do you suggest as an alternative?



Again, potentially depends on what crank you pull. Some have more predictable effects than others.


...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 03-11-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
I would disagree that it isn't possible to...

I would disagree that it isn't possible to determine what the potential futures look like. Again, you are falling into the trap Warden is arguing against- losing sight of the desired end state...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 03-11-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
Good points...

Agree that it is difficult... Warden's arguing to keep trying, though. :) Reality right now is effective and quick are possible but cheap the USG doesn't seem to be able to do. It will be very...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 03-11-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
I'm arguing a theoretical point...

Ganulv-

I was trying to respond to pvebber's theoretical China question... I agree that our absolute budget still is way bigger than China's, and the federal debt is a bigger threat than...
Forum: Politics In the Rear 03-11-2011
Replies: 9
Views: 6,414
Posted By Cliff
Gen Clapper Testimony to Congress 10 Mar 11

Taking a break from the debate on Warden's article, Noticed this today on the news:

Intelligence chief James Clapper causes a stir with remarks on Moammar Kadafi and threats to U.S.
...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 03-10-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
Unlikely...

Uhhm, this is the guy who killed hundreds of thousands of his own folks in the Iran-Iraq war...



You assume Saddam is a rational actor who cares about his people... I think that's a false...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 03-10-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
Almost there... stay on target!

I think Col Warden is making a generality here... but it is supportable. Take your example - the cost of deploying troops to the field for 9 days is going to be 9 times the cost of deploying them...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 03-10-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
Lots to digest...

Agree with all but your last line. Warden's historical examples aren't perfect, but Fuchs' aren't much better.



Note the focus on forces in the above paragraphs- that is what Warden is arguing...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 03-10-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
Response to Fuchs

Hmm, there isn't one. That doesn't mean the strategy is invalid though. How about 1973 or 1967? Are those contemporary to you?



Mostly a political issue with NATO, which as I have pointed...
Forum: Middle East 03-09-2011
Replies: 976
Views: 75,670
Posted By Cliff
No Fly Zones...

Rex, this is not a showstopper tactically. Iraq had airliners flying fairly routinely, and as I pointed out we've been enforcing NFZs over the US for 10 years with lots of civilian traffic. Yes we...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 03-09-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
I'm behind the thread...

I outlined most of what I think the key points are elsewhere, but his summary is:



Finally, he is arguing that:



In other words, airpower can do much more than some would have us believe,...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 03-08-2011
Replies: 247
Views: 29,150
Posted By Cliff
Horse is in front of cart, really!

Marc-

I disagree. In our system of government the politicians ARE the strategists- that is the problem that Ken was pointing out.

Agree that we as the military must strive to recommend...
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