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Search: Posts Made By: Dayuhan
Forum: Europe 20 Hours Ago
Replies: 1,817
Views: 92,732
Posted By Dayuhan
Driven by interests, concerned with threats......

Driven by interests, concerned with threats... just like every other country's foreign policy. Oil isn't the only interest, but it's certainly a major one. Nuclear war isn't the only threat, but it's...
Forum: Europe 2 Days Ago
Replies: 1,817
Views: 92,732
Posted By Dayuhan
Did any thinking person ever doubt that Kuwait...

Did any thinking person ever doubt that Kuwait would be liberated?

Saddam didn't have nukes; Putin does. Crimea doesn't have oil, Kuwait does. Those factors may have some slight impact on the...
Forum: Middle East 3 Days Ago
Replies: 24
Views: 870
Posted By Dayuhan
If the Palestinians had come up with a Gandhi...

If the Palestinians had come up with a Gandhi instead of an Arafat, they'd have had most of what they wanted a long time ago. It's probably true that they are playing to Muslim audiences rather than...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 4 Days Ago
Replies: 23
Views: 7,322
Posted By Dayuhan
Back when I was spending a lot of time in that...

Back when I was spending a lot of time in that region I used to often not the peculiar symbiosis between the determined socialism of Kerala and the capitalist bastion of Dubai. Kerala's much-praised...
Forum: Training & Education 4 Days Ago
Replies: 9
Views: 3,670
Posted By Dayuhan
Looking back at the originally cited article,...

Looking back at the originally cited article, this part of the hypothetical scenario stands out:



Granting that the scenario is set in 2015, but at this point the prediction above couldn't be...
Forum: Social Sciences, Moral, and Religious 4 Days Ago
Replies: 58
Views: 1,892
Posted By Dayuhan
I'm not sure there is a viable "central...

I'm not sure there is a viable "central government" at this stage. There's a Shi'a government that claims to be a central government, but despite very prodigious foreign assistance it cannot control...
Forum: Social Sciences, Moral, and Religious 5 Days Ago
Replies: 58
Views: 1,892
Posted By Dayuhan
I don't think anyone is suggesting that "we"...

I don't think anyone is suggesting that "we" (however "we" might be constructed) should divide Iraq. It's not a question of Iraq being divided by some outside party or parties, more a matter of...
Forum: Middle East 1 Week Ago
Replies: 611
Views: 16,275
Posted By Dayuhan
I expect the Kurds will go their own way and take...

I expect the Kurds will go their own way and take the northern fields with them. The larger reserves in the south remain firmly in Shi'a territory and don't appear to be going anywhere. If Iraq...
Forum: Europe 1 Week Ago
Replies: 1,817
Views: 92,732
Posted By Dayuhan
That will seem a pretty hollow win if the rest of...

That will seem a pretty hollow win if the rest of the Ukraine ends up under a pro-western government.



How is that understandable? If he sees himself faced by weakness and gutlessness, wouldn't...
Forum: Europe 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 1,817
Views: 92,732
Posted By Dayuhan
What exactly were those steps, and where have...

What exactly were those steps, and where have they gotten him?

What I see is that some people here who are personally invested in the idea of an ascendent Russia and the West in retreat are very...
Forum: Middle East 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 611
Views: 16,275
Posted By Dayuhan
Easier than what? None of us here are in a...

Easier than what? None of us here are in a position to do anything about anything. Ideas get tossed out and picked apart. That's discussion. Are ideas supposed to be sacrosanct and immune to...
Forum: Europe 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 1,817
Views: 92,732
Posted By Dayuhan
Also interesting... ...

Also interesting...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/09/putin-ukraine-u-turn-explained
Forum: Europe 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 1,817
Views: 92,732
Posted By Dayuhan
Nobody here knows what Putin "really wants". We...

Nobody here knows what Putin "really wants". We only know what he does: any effort to deduce motivation or desire is speculative.

What we know is that Putin has had troops positioned to intervene...
Forum: Middle East 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 611
Views: 16,275
Posted By Dayuhan
Certainly true, but with or without recognition,...

Certainly true, but with or without recognition, those who control must sooner or later begin to govern, and when that happens money makes a difference. I was just responding to Outlaw's claim that...
Forum: Europe 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 1,817
Views: 92,732
Posted By Dayuhan
It's actually starting to look like a great Putin...

It's actually starting to look like a great Putin debacle, though he'll still be claiming credit for reclaiming Crimea.

It's actually a bit ironic. Not so long ago on this very thread we were...
Forum: Middle East 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 611
Views: 16,275
Posted By Dayuhan
Actually you're the one who cited oil and...

Actually you're the one who cited oil and associated revenues as key elements of a viable State:


I have no doubt that, a JWing says, they are trucking some oil out, and that this gives them...
Forum: Middle East 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 611
Views: 16,275
Posted By Dayuhan
The "banner of Freedom and Democracy" is not...

The "banner of Freedom and Democracy" is not intended to stabilize the targets of intervention, it's intended to make intervention acceptable to the American domestic audience. This is one of the...
Forum: Middle East 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 611
Views: 16,275
Posted By Dayuhan
What's the actual extent and condition of those...

What's the actual extent and condition of those oil reserves and revenue streams?

Syrian oil production was unexceptional at its peak and has declined enormously. The production infrastructure has...
Forum: OEF - Philippines 4 Weeks Ago
Replies: 45
Views: 23,174
Posted By Dayuhan
OEF-P Shutting Down?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/27/world/asia/us-will-disband-terrorism-task-force-in-philippines.html?smid=tw-share&_r=0


About time, IMO: the effort has accomplished as much as it was ever going...
Forum: Middle East 4 Weeks Ago
Replies: 654
Views: 59,160
Posted By Dayuhan
Ok, so you've fired off your three missiles. The...

Ok, so you've fired off your three missiles. The dictator goes underground, his army disperses. They issue a statement telling you to stick your missiles where the sun don't shine, and proceed to do...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 4 Weeks Ago
Replies: 68
Views: 19,061
Posted By Dayuhan
Ok, so you've fired off your three missiles. The...

Ok, so you've fired off your three missiles. The dictator goes underground, his army disperses. They issue a statement telling you to stick your missiles where the sun don't shine, and proceed to do...
Forum: Middle East 4 Weeks Ago
Replies: 611
Views: 16,275
Posted By Dayuhan
Agreed... that's why I think we're looking at a...

Agreed... that's why I think we're looking at a partition in progress. I've heard it said that a truly inclusive government could hold Iraq together, but that doesn't seem a realistic aspiration.

...
Forum: Middle East 4 Weeks Ago
Replies: 611
Views: 16,275
Posted By Dayuhan
I'm sure that's true, but do they have the...

I'm sure that's true, but do they have the capacity to impose Sunni rule on the rest of the country, especially if the Shi'a are getting active support from Iran?

I'm wondering whether the...
Forum: Middle East 4 Weeks Ago
Replies: 611
Views: 16,275
Posted By Dayuhan
Is that a decision to be made by Americans, or...

Is that a decision to be made by Americans, or anyone other than Iraqis?

Arguably what we are seeing right now is the process of partitioning Iraq. It's not pretty, but I don't know that it would...
Forum: Middle East 06-17-2014
Replies: 611
Views: 16,275
Posted By Dayuhan
I suspect that this is what they are in the...

I suspect that this is what they are in the process of doing right now. It's ugly, and I expect it will get uglier before it's done. It's also not in our control. I don't know that it ever was.
...
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