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Forum: Futurists & Theorists 2 Days Ago
Replies: 102
Views: 20,685
Posted By Firn
What the book makes perhaps clearer is the impact...

What the book makes perhaps clearer is the impact of the purges and the executions of high ranking officers during Barbarossa. The flow of informations up ranks to Stavka seemed to work worse the...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 3 Days Ago
Replies: 102
Views: 20,685
Posted By Firn
The Viaz'ma Catastrophe, 1941: The Red Army's...

The Viaz'ma Catastrophe, 1941: The Red Army's Disastrous Stand against Operation Typhoon...
Forum: Europe 3 Days Ago
Replies: 175
Views: 6,064
Posted By Firn
While there is still a lot in flux Radio Free...

While there is still a lot in flux Radio Free Europe came up with ten quick take-aways from Ukraine's vote (http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-vote-takeaways-things-we-learned/26659694.html):


...
Forum: Europe 5 Days Ago
Replies: 175
Views: 6,064
Posted By Firn
While there seems to be little new in the East,...

While there seems to be little new in the East, just a low intenstity war, the election tomorrow will likely rout the parties and players formerly friendly to Moscow. The Maidan movement and the...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 1 Week Ago
Replies: 624
Views: 72,847
Posted By Firn
As I don't think that technology can keep the...

As I don't think that technology can keep the costs of crude at the current levels in the long run, putting also in the long run something similar to a floor under it's price, it will continue to get...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 1 Week Ago
Replies: 624
Views: 72,847
Posted By Firn
I broadly agree with you and history shows indeed...

I broadly agree with you and history shows indeed that oil prices swing indeed a great deal. The low prices of today have often been an important factor in the high prices in the next future.

I...
Forum: Global Issues & Threats 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 624
Views: 72,847
Posted By Firn
After the oil rout in the last months it might be...

After the oil rout in the last months it might be useful to return to this topic. The oil market has of course known far more dramatic movement and swings, and I have no idea what the oil price will...
Forum: Europe 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 368
Views: 19,853
Posted By Firn
Stepping back it is important to look again at...

Stepping back it is important to look again at the link between the economy and public support for the leadership. According to the Moscow Times most Russians think western sanctions will Boost...
Forum: Europe 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 368
Views: 19,853
Posted By Firn
It seems now quite likely that the Russian...

It seems now quite likely that the Russian central bank will hike it's rates, accepting the trade-offs. We will see, maybe they can weather the storm without but if the pressure on the ruble...
Forum: Europe 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 175
Views: 6,064
Posted By Firn
I wonder how often bad weather does interrupt the...

I wonder how often bad weather does interrupt the ferry service over the Kerch. It played a considerable role in the ill-fated Soviet counter-offensive of 1942 supported from the mainland...
Forum: Europe 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 175
Views: 6,064
Posted By Firn
Outlaw, indeed it is still a war with deaths, so...

Outlaw, indeed it is still a war with deaths, so we are still not in a 'frozen' state of conflict. It is also a considerable bigger conflict compared to Russia's war with Georgia, against a far...
Forum: Europe 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 175
Views: 6,064
Posted By Firn
So how limited in time could that limited war be?...

So how limited in time could that limited war be?

I have no idea but a longer time horizon, measured in years, can sadly not be ruled out for a frozen-in aggression. Arguably more is more likely...
Forum: Adversary / Threat 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 95
Views: 53,412
Posted By Firn
Nice graphics indeed.

Nice graphics indeed.
Forum: Europe 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 368
Views: 19,853
Posted By Firn
I would be surprised to see oil prices that low,...

I would be surprised to see oil prices that low, but then I again I have no idea about the oil market. It might well recover, in any case one shouldn't rule that out.

Overall the picture is...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 102
Views: 20,685
Posted By Firn
Maybe your guide intended to say Romanian, which...

Maybe your guide intended to say Romanian, which speak a Romance languages and fought with the Germans in considerable numbers against Soviet troops from 1941-1944. I can not recall anything about...
Forum: Europe 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 368
Views: 19,853
Posted By Firn
It is certainly not easy for many oil-producing...

It is certainly not easy for many oil-producing states which, as was discussed in this forum before, need increasingly high oil revenues to balance their budget. New participants won't be part of a...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 102
Views: 20,685
Posted By Firn
Glad to help. I don't know how the translation...

Glad to help. I don't know how the translation is. In the orginal dialects play a considerable role, just as the Italian army slang of that time.

I'm not sure about the Crimea one but as Alpini...
Forum: Europe 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 368
Views: 19,853
Posted By Firn
You forgot the maybe not, just saying. Overall it...

You forgot the maybe not, just saying. Overall it might be helpful if you are a little bit clearer why it wouldn't stand up.

As well it surprises me that you seem to expect results so quickly,...
Forum: Europe 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 368
Views: 19,853
Posted By Firn
So it might appear of September. Which might...

So it might appear of September. Which might weaken it's resolve considerably more down a long bleak economic road as it enables in the short run more policy stupidity. Or maybe not. Early times,...
Forum: Futurists & Theorists 2 Weeks Ago
Replies: 102
Views: 20,685
Posted By Firn
Il sergente nella neve, or The Sergent in the...

Il sergente nella neve, or The Sergent in the Snow (http://www.amazon.com/Sergeant-Snow-Mario-Rigoni-Stern/dp/0810160552/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top?ie=UTF8). It is one of the most famous Italian novels...
Forum: Europe 3 Weeks Ago
Replies: 368
Views: 19,853
Posted By Firn
A voice of smart reason - sadly following Putin's...

A voice of smart reason - sadly following Putin's logic. It is the West who should strech out it's arm and just forget that Putin's aggression has ripped the poltical landscape and post-war consensus...
Forum: Europe 3 Weeks Ago
Replies: 368
Views: 19,853
Posted By Firn
Putin Clans Gridlocked Over Arrest as Sanctions...

Putin Clans Gridlocked Over Arrest as Sanctions Bite (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-05/putin-clans-said-gridlocked-over-arrest-as-sanctions-bite.html) is a rather dramatic title but it...
Forum: Europe 3 Weeks Ago
Replies: 368
Views: 19,853
Posted By Firn
A nice slide From the first Bloomberg report: ...

A nice slide From the first Bloomberg report:

http://www.bloomberg.com/image/io72t17otmyc.jpg

Of course the usual caveats like inter alia apply.



The oil price might well rise, but every...
Forum: Europe 3 Weeks Ago
Replies: 368
Views: 19,853
Posted By Firn
Just some quick points about the economic risks...

Just some quick points about the economic risks for Europe as a whole:

1) Obviously the current Russian aggression is a negative factor for European growth.

2) Obviously it is so far a very...
Forum: Europe 3 Weeks Ago
Replies: 368
Views: 19,853
Posted By Firn
Two points have to be taken into account when...

Two points have to be taken into account when reading current Russian estimates of inflations or other variables:

1) They are estimates and as in all other countries they are subject of revision...
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