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  1. What is the state of al Qaeda and Terrorism two years after Bin Laden? Vote here!

    Two years ago, Osama Bin Laden was killed in Pakistan marking one of the most significant milestones in the history of terrorism and counterterrorism. Two and a half years ago, I began conducting...
  2. "Drones Make al Qaeda" or "Drone Kill al Qaeda"

    Thanks for your excellent comments.

    I've posted a question on the efficacy of drones, related to this post, if anyone is interested. Here's the link: https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/5JGSVMC
    ...
  3. Which is it? - "Drones Kill al Qaeda" or "Drones Make al Qaeda" - Cast Your Vote!

    The past week has brought a flurry of debate sprinkled with intermittent anger over how the U.S. utilizes unmanned, armed drones to target al Qaeda members around the world. After I wrote the post,...
  4. Americans: If You Don’t Want To Get Killed By A Drone, Avoid These 4 Things!

    SWC members: I made a post at my blog today reference the debate over the use of drones, which has reached its zenith this week. I've cross-posted some of the points here from the entire post and...
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    Is al Qaeda 'Stronger' or 'Weaker' after Bin Laden? Poll Results #11

    The relative strength of al Qaeda remains a point of constant debate - a debate that grows more complicated each year as the definition of al Qaeda becomes ever more amorphous. Earlier this week, I...
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    Are al Qaeda Affiliates getting 'stronger' or 'weaker'? Poll results #9

    On May 2, 2012, one year after the death of Osama Bin Laden, I asked the following question here at this blog:

    Do you think the following al Qaeda (AQ) affiliates have become stronger or weaker...
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    For al Qaeda, more 'Unity' or 'Competition' one year after Bin Laden? Results #8

    On May 2, 2012, the "1 Year After Bin Laden" survey asked the following question:

    Since Usama Bin Laden's death, has there been more ...?

    -Conflict and competition between al Qaeda leaders and...
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    Is al Qaeda recruiting increasing or decreasing? - Poll Results #6

    All,

    Thanks for voting and here's the latest results.

    Beginning on May 2, 2012, the "1 Year Post Bin Laden" survey asked 208 respondents the following question:

    Since Usama Bin Laden's...
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    Syrian Intervention and 'Loss Aversion' - ! Year Post Bin Laden Results #5

    All,

    As always, thanks for voting. Here is the 5th round of results thanks to your contributions. For the full analysis and charts see this link.

    Beginning on May 2, 2012, I wanted to find out...
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    AQAP in Yemen Receiving The Money After UBL's Death - Results #4

    All,

    Again, thanks for participating in the Post UBL Poll. Here's the latest results from your efforts.

    In my opinion, one of the most critical questions after the death of Osama Bin Laden was...
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    Crowd says "AQ Fundraising Decreased" - One Year After Bin Laden

    On the day of Bin Laden’s death, May 2, 2011, two of the options provided to survey respondents of the question “What will be the chief consequence of Osama Bin Laden’s death?” related to al Qaeda’s...
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    Crowd says "AQ Plots Decreased" - 1 Year After Bin Laden

    All,


    Again, thanks for voting and here's the results of the second tabulation of the "1 Year Post Bin Laden" Poll. For the full writeup and charts see this link at Selected Wisdom: ...
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    Results of "One Year After Bin Laden" Poll

    All,

    Thanks for taking the time to participate in the "One Year After Bin Laden" poll initiated on May 2, 2012. I appreciate your support in this third crowdsourcing experiment, and I wanted to...
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    Latest Crowdsourcing question

    David,

    thanks for consolidating.

    And for those interested in my latest crowdsourcing experiment, here's a 1-question survey I'm running.

    Should the U.S. and Europe openly support the...
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    Should the West support the rebels in Syria?

    Yesterday, I started a 1- question poll reference the continually evolving situation in Syria.

    Should the U.S. and Europe openly support the Syrian resistance?

    What do you think? Vote here at...
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    Initial Thoughts on the Bin Laden Docs

    Lots of interesting stuff in the Bin Laden docs, but my initial thoughts are of caution...

    Today’s release of 17 documents from last year’s Bin Laden raid has been met by a staggering amount of...
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    Polls are still open

    Thanks to all those that have voted thus far!

    The survey is still open and available at this link:


    https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/UBLayearlater
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    Vote Now - 1 Year After Bin Laden: What has happened?

    SWJ members:

    Good morning,

    One year ago, U.S. forces killed Usama Bin Laden in Pakistan. On the morning of May 2, 2011, I posted a survey, which asked your opinions on what would happen to al...
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    Further Hammami Debate....

    For those interested in the Hammami story,

    I've compiled diverging opinions of those debating the story and have published them in three scenarios.

    Here's a quick intro.




    Here's the...
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    Omar Hammami's Plight Amongst al-Shabaab & al-Qaeda's Game of Thrones

    For those interested in the recent video of Omar Hammami claiming he's been betrayed by al-Shabaab and al-Qaeda, Andrew Lebovich and I wrote a short commentary entitled, "Hammami's Plight Amongst...
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    Al Qaeda's Brand Name: Stronger or Weaker?

    All.

    Again, thank you for the support last year with the al Qaeda Strategy 2011-2012 survey and the Post-Bin Laden Survey. Prompted by the recent announcement of al Qaeda and al Shabaab, I...
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    Results of "How big is al Qaeda?"

    Thanks to all those that voted on this post.
    For some reason this post got stuck in OIF section.
    So I just posted the results in the GWOT section.
    Here is the link to the results here.
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    Results "How big is al Qaeda?"

    The tenth anniversary of 9/11 initiated many interesting articles on al Qaeda. The Wall Street Journal published "Shadowy Figure: al Qaeda's size is hard to measure". Following this lead, I...
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    What will al Qa’ida do? Poll Results #8

    The first question of the AQ Strategy Poll 2011-2012 asked 268 respondents the following question the week prior to Bin Laden’s death



    This goal of this question was to anticipate what al...
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    How do we perceive the threat of terrorism?

    Recently, Dr. Michael C. Horowitz from the University of Pennsylvania and I discussed his latest research effort where he is examining how terror groups innovate in the conduct of their violent acts-...
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