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    Have you seen what has happened to Al Qaeda in...

    Have you seen what has happened to Al Qaeda in Iraq before, during and after 'the Surge'?

    I leave to your imagination what will happen to terrorist warfighting capabilities confined to an easily...
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    Rex, Is this your considered opinion or do you...

    Rex,

    Is this your considered opinion or do you have supporting information in the form of HUMINT or otherwise?



    Targeting elementary school children in an attempt at cold-blooded mass murder...
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    With what part? All, some, or something specific?...

    With what part? All, some, or something specific? What exactly is the basis of your disagreement? What is the source of information that guides your disagreement; would you care to cite the...
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    Penta, Just relating what has been collected...

    Penta,

    Just relating what has been collected from several current and former IDF soldiers, some of whom are 'Hayal Boded' (Lone Soldiers). This info is as close to real HUMINT as I'm capable of...
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    Ron, Just my 0.02 worth... no doubt about...

    Ron,

    Just my 0.02 worth... no doubt about it... virtually every category of I&W (and even harmonics of them) seem to be screaming that a conflagration from Gaza, to WB to the Lebanon-Syrian...
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    Ken, For what its worth.... Early Entry slash...

    Ken,

    For what its worth.... Early Entry slash Dynamic Entry slash Forced Entry was a theoretical doctrine possibly/probably implemented by the 173rd during OIF-I.

    The genesis of this type...
  7. Roy Gutman's OpEd in yesterdays Post-Bulletin...

    Roy Gutman's OpEd in yesterdays Post-Bulletin (Rochester, Minnesota) had a rather unique conclusion regarding the NIE, Iran and HUMINT.

    U.S. intelligence can be spectacularly right -- or wrong
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    Absolutely. When it comes to this terrorist I...

    Absolutely.

    When it comes to this terrorist I would ordinarily agree with you, his OPSEC most likely would have no chance of being cracked by the sources noted.

    However, note that the cited...
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    Rex, Don't be too quick to dismiss this as...

    Rex,

    Don't be too quick to dismiss this as RUMINT. That might be a bit of a rash assumption to make with respect to Imad Mughniyeh.

    An article written by Magnus Ranstorp in July of 2006 (...
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    Yes. I think it's fact. Here's a report on...

    Yes. I think it's fact.

    Here's a report on recent coordinated activity involving Iranian intelligence, Syrian intelligence and Tehran-based Hezbollah terrorist Imad Mughniyah. This report might...
  11. Stan, It has to do with what our unclassifed...

    Stan,

    It has to do with what our unclassifed NIE specifically states about that year and what the Israeli intel assessment says about that year regarding the Iranian nuclear weapons program.
    ...
  12. Stan, I was being specific with respect to the...

    Stan,

    I was being specific with respect to the 2009 date ("about two years time") and how the US and Israeli estimates currently judge/assign confidences to the Iranian nuke weapons capability or...
  13. Sorry wm. I fixed it. I think you are...

    Sorry wm. I fixed it.



    I think you are correct. We'll have to wait and see what real-world event(s) occur between now and then which might bring this NIE back into the spotlight it now has. ...
  14. One of our main allies in the Middle East also...

    One of our main allies in the Middle East also had objections to the current NIE. Those objections resulted in an "unusual visit" to Israel by C-JCS Admiral Mike Mullen on Monday, 10 December.
    ...
  15. Stan, Regarding HUMINT as pertains to this...

    Stan,

    Regarding HUMINT as pertains to this topic I wrote:



    In the very next post to this thread Jedburgh had quoted some text from an LATimes article.
  16. As I noted above, the unclassified NIE notes...

    As I noted above, the unclassified NIE notes within its text that it contains estimates, assessments, key judgements and key assumptions.



    This one is assuming nothing but has noted above and...
  17. A more salient point...

    A more salient point would be to note what GlobalSecurity.org has to say, with the acknowledgement that this NIE confirmed the existence of Iranian WMD of the nuclear variety.



    With respect to...
  18. Au contraire, the unclassified version of the NIE...

    Au contraire, the unclassified version of the NIE was most assuredly intended for public consumption. With this National Survey of the public reaction to it the purpose of the unclassified NIE most...
  19. Rasmussen...

    Rasmussen conducted "National Survey of 800 Likely Voters" on 5/6 December 2007. Here is the report on the results of that poll (emphasis added) which reflects the mindset of the American citizen...
  20. Dang... there goes my coveted HUMINT. POOF!

    Dang... there goes my coveted HUMINT. POOF!
  21. We should be prepared like a Boy Scout is...

    We should be prepared like a Boy Scout is prepared.



    We need covert HUMINT in almost every area of intelligence collection. As evidenced by the 2005 and 2007 NIE we desperately need covert...
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    I've found this...

    I've found this book to be a valuable resource. The Table of Contents page provides limited insight to your potential application of this book in the class.
  23. Center for American Progress...

    Center for American Progress

    Excerpts from the above link:





    It is my opinion that CAP represents a very slick, left of center political front that is more interested in the appeasement...
  24. I have some questions...

    I agree with the sum of the entire post the above excerpt is taken from.

    Having read every post within this thread, I had a nagging set of questions buffeting me the entire way to this point. The...
  25. Allow me to re-phrase over the course and sum of...

    Allow me to re-phrase over the course and sum of this post. I think we need agreement on what the NIE does and does not estimate, assess, and hold as key judgements or key assumptions.



    I...
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