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I have to agree with that, though I'd add that the mess will not be "cleaned up" by any outside party. A lasting solution will have to evolve from within, not be imposed from without, and as you...

Boko Haram offers negotiations, but under terms I can't imagine any sovereign government accepting...


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Couple of comments on the issue:

https://blogs.cfr.org/campbell/2012/05/24/why-not-to-designate-boko-haram-a-foreign-terrorist-organization/



There's a quote in this one that seemed...

It's of no utility at all to Nigerians. It's not meant to be. It's a tool of US policy, no less or more, and it will be used only if the US thinks its use will produce more gain than risk for the...

This illustrates one of my reservations about a US declaration of Boko Haram as a terrorist organization. Of course it isn't true: most groups on the FTO list have never experienced a drone strike...

No matter what the US does, the conspiracy theorists will twist it into someting despicable and devious. If the US declares BH a terrorist organization, they'll be laying the groundwork to send in...

I'm not sure what the "FTO" designation would accomplish. In practice the main effect of the designation is that it prohibits US-based funding and allows the US to impose sanctions on other entities...

The actual degree of influence is very much debatable. Lots of factors driving US support for Israel, difficult to say exactly how much influence any given one actually has.



My guess would be...

Afternoon in my time zone!



Even with zero forensic capacity they could do it the old fashioned way: work informants into the group and use networks of informants in the areas where the group...

Communist rebels here used to target the police, not because the police were a threat to them but because their target market had an extreme (and largely justified) dislike for the police. Wouldn't...

Do people in the affected area hate cops more than they hate soldiers? Rebel groups sometimes target police because the populace loathes the police, and killing them wins friends.

For a group...

How reliable is the source? Is it confirmed that the people involved really do represent AQIM?

What's the story on this woman they allegedly want released in trade? Is it certain that this is...

Al Qaeda in Iraq didn't exist until a US occupation gave it a reason to exist.

I'm well aware of the complexity of the AQ phenomenon and its religious and geopolitical roots. I'm also aware that...

I think most reached that conclusion a long time ago. The danger is that the conclusion, taken one-dimensionally, will lead to unproductive and inappropriate intervention. That happens when an...

I don't think anyone's denied that there are "links". The question is the nature and the extent. Possibly due to local experience, I'm suspicious of the word "link" in the AQ context, and I...

How do people feel about a foreign unit conducting armed operations on Nigerian soil? In a lot of places that would be a real hot button issue...

The State Dept can't change policy toward Israel or toward Arab regimes... and the degree to which the latter depend on US support is consistently overrated. They can only do what they can with the...

Never listen to US Congressional hearings. For most of those in attendance the first thought they'd given to the subject in the past year was probably on the way to the hearing when they read the...

I really don't think they care very much. They're worried about scoring points with a domestic audience, and public opinion in SSA is not high on the list of priorities for American (or British,...

The words in question - there are no policies, only words - do not "target" anyone in Africa, they target a domestic voting bloc. Everybody in Africa will get "a free pass" because the words will...

There are obvious reasons why an oil company would want to dispose of activists seeking greater local control of oil production. What reason would anyone in the west have to support a radical...

Paranoid fantasy, but many will believe it. Always useful to be able to blame awful conditions on some malevolent outside force.

I wouldn't want to speculate on probabilities.

There's a third plausible scenario, of course: stalemate, with recurring outbreaks of sectarian violence but neither side able to gain a decisive...

BH often seems to describe their attacks as responses to some provocation... not saying they necessarily are, but BH seems to want to claim they are. Is it possible that targets are in some cases...

Why would we want to compete with the Chinese? Who ever said there's a competition going on? I don't think the US or "The West" needs to see Chinese engagement as a threat or a challenge in any...